NBA Cup Odds
The second night of the NBA Cup group stage begins this evening! If it is anything like Tuesday night, we are in for a treat.
Tuesday was as good a night as any for the three futures I wrote up on Monday. Boston lost outright, clearing the way for Cleveland to win the group. Golden State won its first group game against Dallas – one of its biggest competitors in the group – and Detroit outlasted Miami in a wild overtime affair.
As of Friday morning, the New York Knicks (+500) are favored to win the NBA Cup, followed by the Cleveland Cavaliers (+750) and Boston Celtics (+800). We will follow this market throughout the season, and in Monday’s column we will take a look at the NBA Cup MVP market after two days of play.
Remember, Zach Cohen has you covered for daily best bets and props, and our NBA player prop analyzer is a must for bettors who get into prop markets.
With that, let’s dive into today’s player-specific topics!
Nikola Vucevic’s Scoring Run
Fifteen-year veterans do not often have career years, but that is exactly what is happening with Nikola Vucevic in Chicago.
The Bulls’ center is averaging 20.7 points per game, the most since his first season in Chicago in which he played just 28 games. If you eliminate seasons in which he played fewer than 50 games, this is the most he has averaged since he entered the league. Driving this scoring push for Vucevic is not more volume – he is actually sporting the lowest usage rate since the 2012-2013 season – it is insane efficiency.
Vucevic is shooting 59.1% from the floor through 12 games. His 67.6% true shooting percentage dwarfs his previous career-high of 59.4% from the 2022-2023 season. Vucevic is averaging 135.5 points per 100 shot attempts. His previous best was 119.2 from the same season in which he set his career mark for true shooting.
The astounding part of this efficiency from Vucevic is where the shots are coming from. Vucevic is not a rim-running center who lives in the restricted area. His frequency of attempts at the rim (38%) are the highest since the 2013-2014 season, but he still ranks in the 37th percentile at his position in shots at the rim. As of Friday, 56.9% of his shot attempts have come from four or more feet out.
All of this has led to an 11-1 record to the over on Vucevic’s point total props for the season. There has not been an astounding adjustment on his point total prop to this point, but there is still some value in looking to play against this efficiency spike.
For Friday, Vucevic’s point total prop is 17.5 consensus with almost every shop showing -125 on the Under. That is a price worth laying considering his workload. Three other players on the Bulls have higher usage rates and two others – Zach LaVine and Coby White – average more shot attempts. Tonight, he is also facing a tremendous defensive frontcourt, led by Jarrett Allen.
Moving forward, it will be worth tracking Vucevic’s workload, shooting and scoring. His efficiency should decline as the season progresses. If he continues at his current pace – lowest usage rate and third-lowest field goal attempts per game – playing under his point total props as long as they are 17.5 or higher will be fruitful.
Jared McCain’s Rise
We have a new favorite in the Rookie of the Year race.
Philadelphia 76ers guard Jared McCain climbed his way to the top of the odds board on Wednesday with a dynamic performance against the undefeated Cleveland Cavaliers. McCain dropped 34 points on 12-of-26 shooting from the floor while dishing 10 assists in a loss. It was his third straight 20-point performance, and his fourth straight contest hitting at least three 3-point attempts.
McCain is now +350 to win the award at DraftKings, but I can’t help but think his odds to win this award are extremely inflated.
It is true that this rookie class has not featured a standout performer outside of McCain himself. After Wednesday’s performance McCain took the mantle as leading rookie scorer (13.5 PPG), but there are still three other rookies averaging double-figures. The former Duke Blue Devil is off to a tremendous start, but there is still so much season left to be played. He also has a massive issue with his status as the favorite: his workload.
Through 11 games McCain’s usage rate of 28.8% is third-highest among qualified players on the 76ers’ roster. That is largely due to injuries and absences to Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and Joel Embiid. George and Embiid are back from their respective injuries, and they are not likely missing much time moving forward, as Philadelphia has just two back-to-backs from now until the new calendar year.
McCain’s usage is sure to dip in the coming weeks. That means a decline in production and a fall down the oddsboard as favorite to win Rookie of the Year. The question becomes, which rookie is worth targeting if the decline is coming for the current favorite?
Zaccharie Risacher is the name I keep coming back to.
Risacher has seen his usage increase since the beginning of November. He is averaging 12.9 points and 4.6 rebounds in his last seven contests. Unlike McCain, his workload and status with the Hawks should not be at risk as the team gets healthier. Atlanta is committed to building around its young wing talent, and that includes a large role for Risacher. The efficiency likely won’t be there for him, but the counting stats will be.
McCain is a great story, but his status as favorite to win Rookie of the Year seems tenuous with Philadelphia’s stars looming. This should be the time for bettors to look elsewhere in the market, even if it isn’t Risacher.
