On Tuesday, May 27th, the New York Knicks will be in Gainbridge Fieldhouse for a big Game 4 against the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals. Keep reading for odds, predictions and best bets for this exciting showdown, but make sure you also check out the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for the rest of our written content. We have a ton of people breaking down the action in the postseason. We’re also talking ball regularly on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Knicks vs. Pacers – Game 4
Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana
When: 8:00 pm ET on Tuesday, May 27th
Channel: TNT / Max
Knicks vs. Pacers Odds – Game 4
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Monday, May 26th at 7:30 pm ET)
Moneyline: Pacers -135, Knicks +114
Spread: Pacers -2.5 (-108), Knicks +2.5 (-112)
Total: Over 220.5 (-110), Under 220.5 (-110)
Knicks vs. Pacers Prediction – Game 4
The Pacers led by as many as 20 points in Game 3, and it looked like they were on their way to running away with this series. Jalen Brunson was one of the many Knicks players in foul trouble, and New York looked disjointed on both ends of the floor. Then, Karl-Anthony Towns injected life into the Knicks season with a 20-point fourth quarter. Towns was unstoppable driving to the basket, and he was also knocking down triples. He was simply sensational for a New York team that needed everything he had to give. Now, the Knicks have a shot at tying this series up, but they’ll have to win a second game in a row in Indiana to do it. And I’m not sure New York can count on another home meltdown from a very smart basketball team.
In addition to Towns going nuclear, another thing that helped New York was Indiana turning the ball over eight times in the second half, and that’s just not Pacers basketball. They have the second-lowest turnover rate (12.3%) in the postseason thus far, and they had the third-lowest turnover rate in the regular season (13.0%). The Knicks do deserve a lot of credit for making them uncomfortable in the final 24 minutes, but it’s hard to expect that to happen again. Indiana looked like a team that could sense it was close to going up 3-0, and the group lost focus. Guys got lazy and started throwing bad passes, others stopped moving off the ball and there was just less purpose and action to the Pacers offense. Rick Carlisle is going to rip his group for that, and the problem should go away quickly.
I also have some questions about how the Knicks will look with Brunson and Towns getting fresh zeroes in the foul column to start the game. Brunson is one of the best scorers on the planet, and Towns is a unicorn in his ability to shoot the 3 at his size while also having ball skills. There’s no denying any of that. However. Indiana built that 20-point lead by having those two gifted players to attack on the other end of the floor. For as special as Brunson and Towns are offensively, the two of them are next-level bad defensively. That’s not as dooming when one of them is on the floor and the other is on the bench. That’s why New York’s defense was able to take things up a notch with Towns on and Brunson off. But Tom Thibodeau is going to play those two together often when they’re not in foul trouble, and that’s going to make the Pacers’ free-flowing offense dangerous again. It’s a very weird spot for the Knicks to be in, as they have to play their two best players. But it wasn’t a coincidence that New York finally shut Indiana down when Thibodeau was forced to play mostly defensive-minded lineups.
Game 3 was just incredibly strange, but things should normalize in Game 4. That should mean more pick-and-roll mastery from Tyrese Haliburton, and it should also mean that Thibodeau will have to figure out his rotation. Oddly enough, foul trouble for both Brunson and Deuce McBride meant that Josh Hart, who was moved to a sixth man role prior to Game 3, had to play 34 minutes. I’m interesting in seeing how things actually shake out in Game 4. We haven’t exactly seen the new lineup change work. And while I liked the idea of playing Mitchell Robinson and Towns together heading into Game 3, I thought Indiana looked unbothered by the extra size in Game 3. In fact, I thought the Pacers looked eager to up the tempo and beat those two up the floor, allowing them to execute easy offense. And for the most part, that was working until the game malfunctioned in the second half.
I’ll also just continue to hammer home the difference in coaching in this series. Thibodeau has always done awesome work with his teams in the regular season, but he rarely pushes the right buttons in the playoffs. And his inability to make sound adjustments often rears its ugly head later in a series. Well, Carlisle is the opposite. He’s a master tactician and learns more about opponents throughout every series.
I noted heading into Game 3 that Carlisle’s teams have historically struggled in that situation, but you know what? Since arriving in Indiana, the Pacers are 4-1 straight-up and 5-0 against the spread in Game 4s. And I can’t think of a coach I trust more to get his team right after a sloppy performance like the last one. Indiana is 18-12 SU when coming off a loss as a home favorite under Carlisle, and the team is also 48-28 when playing four or fewer games in a 10-day span with him at the helm. Rest and extra preparation time always help a Carlisle-led team.
Let’s also see if Indiana’s 3-point shooting is as big of a problem as it was in Game 3. The Pacers starters combined to shoot 4 for 21 from deep in Game 3, and the entire team was a combined 5 for 25 from 3. I’m not expecting another shooting performance like that from a team that shot 36.8% from deep during the regular season — especially considering that number was up at 37.9% at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Bet: Pacers ML (-130)
