Milwaukee Bucks season preview
This preview originally appeared in our 2023-24 VSiN NBA Betting Guide, which was released on Thursday, October 5. To become a VSiN Pro subscriber and get all of our NBA coverage throughout the season, click here.
Bucks Betting Odds
NBA Finals: +850
Conference: +330
Division: -230
Win Total: 54.5
Playoffs: Yes (-5000)
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Team Analysis
In an offseason filled with massive trades that shifted the landscape of the league, the Milwaukee Bucks might have pulled off the biggest one. A week before the start of training camp Milwaukee shipped off Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen and draft compensation to land Damian Lillard. In the following days, Holiday was picked up by Boston, so the Bucks now find themselves as co-favorites to win the NBA Finals at DraftKings (+400).
The last time Milwaukee’s front office traded assets for a coveted guard they acquired Holiday and eventually won a championship. That is obviously the goal once more for the Bucks, and in pulling this off, they could have one of the best duos in the NBA.
Lillard is the perfect guard to put on the floor with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Last season in Portland the Trail Blazers averaged 1.13 points per possession when Lillard was the ball-handler in a pick-and-roll. That was without Antetokounmpo on the floor. Now Lillard has a complimentary piece to run those pick-and-rolls with him in the Greek Freak. Milwaukee averaged 1.08 points per possession when Antetokounmpo was the roll-man in a pick-and-roll last season. That efficiency should improve dramatically with Lillard running the show.
This addition also helps out the likes of Khris Middleton, who was often called upon to bail the offense out when it was sputtering in halfcourt situations. Middleton shot 38.8% on catch-and-shoot attempts in the 2021-2022 season – the last season in which he played more than 33 games – and will now find himself with much better looks as a result of sharing the floor with Lillard and Antetokounmpo.
Having Middleton as the third option as an offensive creator instead of the second will do wonders for this offense. Milwaukee’s greatest weakness last season was its halfcourt offense, as it averaged only 99.6 points per 100 halfcourt plays. Lillard alleviates the pain for the Bucks when the game slows down in those situations, and his presence spaces the floor, allowing Antetokounmpo more room to work in.
Lillard is also comfortable running in transition, something the Bucks love to do with Antetokounmpo on the floor. In those possessions last season Milwaukee ranked in the 92nd percentile in transition frequency off live rebounds, but they averaged only 116.7 points per 100 plays. Lillard was brilliant in transition for Portland last season, improving their transition offensive rating by 10.4 points per 100 plays.
On almost every level offensively, this pairing should work for Milwaukee. However, questions do remain on defense.
Without Holiday the Bucks now have to find an option for opponents’ primary backcourt scorer. Holiday is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA, and even shut down Lillard years earlier in a first-round series as a member of the Pelicans. Who on this team takes on the best perimeter scorer on defense now? Under Mike Budenholzer Antetokounmpo would usually play the role of help defender, but he might be called on more frequently to defend the opposition’s best player in the regular season.
Their interior defense should be just fine though. Brook Lopez returned after flirting with Houston in free agency, and he will allow Milwaukee to roll out its patented drop coverage defense if needed. When he and Antentokounmpo shared the floor last season the Bucks ranked in the 97th percentile of defensive efficiency. With Lillard at the point of attack now those numbers could dip, but with two All-Defense players up front, this will continue to be an above-average unit.
The other issue for Milwaukee, as it usually is when a team sacrifices assets to land a star player, is the team’s depth is a real question. The front office did well in signing Cam Payne to shore up the backup point guard spot, but the concerns remain. Malik Beasley, Pat Connaughton and Jae Crowder make up the depth along the wing, but none of them are elite options at the position.
Regardless, this team will compete for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. The stars they are built on also have relatively steady injury histories, meaning that lack of depth could rarely rear its ugly head. Stars drive success in the NBA, and the Bucks now have two of them. They are the rightful favorites to win the NBA Finals.
Win Total Analysis
The acquisition of Lillard caused DraftKings to adjust Milwaukee’s win total by two wins, meaning this team has the second-highest win total on the board behind only Boston. Unlike the Celtics though, bettors can have more faith in the core of this roster to be available. Antetokounmpo has played in at least 61 games every season of his career. Lopez only played in 13 games two seasons ago, but he has played in at least 68 games in every other season since 2015. Lillard’s availability history is weaker, but prior to the last two seasons – in which Portland was tanking – he played in 66 or more games every year. If history is an indicator, then health is not a concern like it is with the Celtics.
Milwaukee also has one of the least taxing schedules in the NBA. Positive Residual gives the Bucks the fourth-lowest strength of schedule, and they travel the fourth-fewest miles this season. Their net rest advantage is negative, but by only one game, and they have an average amount of back-to-backs to deal with this season (14).
The win total for Milwaukee is obviously massive, but this one should not be bet Under. According to Cleaning The Glass’ win differential metric the Bucks outperformed their statistics and added 6.1 wins to their total last season. This is a veteran group who will be able to maximize the probability of winning each game, and given the strong history of availability from its cornerstone stars, this is going to be a recommendation to the Over.
Win Total Recommendation: OVER 54.5
