Alt win totals provide hidden value
The popularity of alternate win total markets has really boomed here in recent years. NFL bettors often use these bets in their preseason futures portfolio, almost solely because of how tough it is for oddsmakers to accurately predict how many wins a team will end up with at the end of a regular season. For context, last year – depending on the book – about 35% of NFL team win totals were off by three or more wins. With more books posting more alt win options (or just posting any options in the first place), this market has seen increased action with NBA bettors too. And the edge in these markets is there on the NBA side, just like it is on the NFL side.
Now, that’s not meant to be disrespectful to the extremely talented oddsmakers around the country. But, things like injuries, along with in-season trades and transactions, can drastically affect a team’s season over 82 games. And naturally, we get teams that will fall short of, or far surpass, preseason expectations on the court. More games, more trades, more injuries, more variance. Consequently, it’s extremely difficult for oddsmakers to get close to the actual win total outcome year after year.
I went back to the three full seasons we’ve had since COVID and added up how many teams’ preseason win totals were off by 3+ games and how many were off by 5+ games:
As you can see, many teams are going way over or way under their preseason win totals. Over three seasons, you’re talking 68.9% of teams were 3+ wins better or worse than their win total, and 46.6% of teams were 5+ wins off.
Now, this doesn’t mean you should just blindly bet the extreme alt win total options, but if you have conviction on a season win total bet, you should be adding an alternate win total bet as well. The bet size is up to you, but always dependent on bankroll.
It’s also important to note that given the lower margin for error, you’ll want to be careful if you’re betting alt overs on a team that already has a high win total, and the same can be said for an alt under bet on a team that already has a low total. A team can only win or lose so many games, but outside of those extremes, I’d recommend adding these for other teams. And if you’re betting at a shop like DraftKings, you might get up to NINE different win total marks you can bet for each team.
Below are some win total and alt win totals bets I’d recommend based on DraftKings odds (I haven’t bet all of these exactly as written below because I am a DraftKings employee, but I have bet them at similar odds at other shops):
Denver Nuggets under 53.5 (-105)
Denver Nuggets under 50.5 (+215)
Chicago Bulls under 37.5 (-110)
Chicago Bulls under 34.5 (+180)
Toronto Raptors under 36.5 (-120)
Toronto Raptors under 32.5 (+205)
