The Emirates NBA Cup gives us a good opportunity to calm down and look at some bigger picture things in the NBA. So, with only two games tonight and three games on Thursday, I decided to dive into the major NBA awards markets. Below you’ll find all of the players that I believe are winning each race. That’s based strictly on what we have seen early in the season. I didn’t do any projecting when deciding the current winner of each. However, I also looked at the best bet you can make for each award. That definitely factors in the future, as I’m trying to find you the best value bets to make for each NBA award. Also, just for a little added fun, I included my three All-NBA Teams as of Wednesday, December 11th.
Most Valuable Player
Winner This Moment: Nikola Jokic (-115)
People are going to be upset if Jokic wins this award again. He has won it in three of the last four years, and the Nuggets are a lot worse than usual. They’re currently 12-10 and are looking more like a Play-In team than a surefire playoff team. However, Jokic is averaging career highs in points (32.3), assists (10.2) and steals (1.8) per game. He’s also shooting 50.0% from 3, and he’s doing it on 4.4 attempts per game. That’s more than he has ever launched on a per-game basis.
Jokic is also leading the league in Estimated Plus-Minus (+8.4), thanks to his outrageous +7.8 Offensive EPM. He’s also first in the NBA in Box Plus-Minus (13.8), Win Shares Per 48 minutes (.303) and VORP (2.8).
We go into each season thinking there’s no way Jokic can top what he did the year before, or that he won’t improve his numbers enough to justify choosing him over another candidate. Well, he continues to find ways to raise the bar, and he’s currently enjoying the best offensive season of his career. He’s also giving a weak Denver team a chance of playing postseason basketball. That might not sound great when considering this franchise’s new standards, but the team around him isn’t nearly as good as it once was. He’s dragging the group into close games, giving them a small shot at winning.
Best Bet You Can Make Now: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+750)
While Jokic has been the best player in basketball this season, there are voters that will hold the team’s record against him. With that in mind, it’s not crazy to look elsewhere in this market. This is probably the best place to turn. After a slow start to the year, Milwaukee is up to sixth in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks have won 11 of their last 14 games, and the team just got Khris Middleton back from his two offseason ankle surgeries. Milwaukee is fully healthy, playing well and likely looking at home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Considering the Bucks are starting to look like borderline contenders again, Antetokounmpo should get some love in the MVP conversation. He’s averaging a career high 32.7 points per game, and he’s also averaging 11.4 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.5 blocks per game. On top of that, Antetokounmpo is shooting 61.2% from the floor. He has simply been dominant offensively this year, and it’s clear he has put a lot of work in on his mid-range jumper. He has also been a force defensively, looking more like the game-changing multi positional defender he was a few years ago.
Rookie of the Year
Winner This Moment: Jared McCain (-150)
Two days into the NBA season, it was clear McCain wasn’t going to fall a single lecture behind. The Duke product has been awesome from the jump, averaging 15.8 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the floor and 38.2% shooting from 3. McCain has also scored at least 20 points eight times, giving a desperate Philadelphia team a much-needed scoring punch. Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey have all missed time this year, and the Sixers’ 7-15 record would look a lot worse without him. McCain’s +1.7 Offensive EPM is also very impressive for a rookie.
The problem with McCain is that he has clearly taken a backseat with the stars returning. George returned to action on November 30th. In the five games since then, McCain is averaging just 13.2 points per game. And he had just 11 when Embiid returned to action on Sunday, marking a game in which Philadelphia’s Big Three was fully intact.
It’s just not fair to expect McCain to continue lighting it up. He will continue to be a great scoring presence off the bench for the Sixers, but this race is going to open up.
Best Bet You Can Make Now: Stephon Castle (+700)
I was on Castle at 10-1 to start the season, and I strongly suggest grabbing him at +700. I think we’re rapidly heading towards Castle being the betting favorite in this market, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens by the end of December. Castle is averaging 12.1 points and 3.8 assists per game for a San Antonio team that is very much in the mix for a Play-In spot in a competitive Western Conference. And not only is he averaging double digits in scoring, but Castle is top 10 in Perimeter Isolation Defense, according to BBall Index.
Everybody knew Castle would be a great NBA defender, but it didn’t take him long to show the rest of the world why. But the fact that his offense has been as good as it has been is impressive. He’s a rookie that is making a positive impact on winning, and the Spurs coaching staff trusts him more and more every single day. I’d be stunned if he doesn’t end up winning this award, making him a must-bet at this price.
Most Improved Player
Winner This Moment: Franz Wagner (N/A)
Wagner was looking like the clear Most Improved Player before tearing his oblique. Averaging 24.4 points, 5.7 assists, 5.6 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game (all career-high numbers), Wagner was making the leap from a great player to a bona fide All-Star right before our eyes. In fact, he’s currently fifth in the NBA in Estimated Plus-Minus (+5.4) — right below Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephen Curry and Jayson Tatum. His play on both ends of the floor is a big part of the reason Orlando is third in the Eastern Conference. However, Wagner likely won’t play 65 games because of this injury, which is why he’s off the board. That means that this race is wide open.
Best Bet You Can Make Now: Jalen Johnson (+800)
Johnson is a favorite in the Hardwood Handicappers group chat that I have with Kelley Bydlon and Jonathan Von Tobel. Last year, I was all over Johnson to win Most Improved Player, and I was unfortunately a year early. But JVT is invested in the Hawks wing this season, so I’m hoping this one gets home for him. Johnson is averaging career highs in points (19.8), rebounds (9.9), assists (5.5), steals (1.3) and blocks (1.1) per game this year. He’s looking like a borderline All-Star for an Atlanta team that is up to seventh in the Eastern Conference after having won six of its last seven games.
Johnson is the clear running mate for Trae Young with the Hawks, and he just impacts the game in so many ways. He’s going to continue to win people over throughout the year, and it isn’t too late to get down on him. It doesn’t make a lot of sense that he’s currently behind Jalen Williams, as a good argument can be made that there has been a bigger year-over-year improvement from Johnson. I think this is a three-man race between Johnson, Tyler Herro and RJ Barrett right now. But Johnson is my favorite bet of the three.
Defensive Player of the Year
Winner This Moment: Victor Wembanyama (-190)
If Wembanyama meets the 65-game requirement, he’s going to win Defensive Player of the Year. The second-year megastar is averaging a combined 4.53 stocks (steals + blocks) per game, and he’s also eighth in the NBA in Defensive EPM (+2.6) and 12th amongst players that have played at least 300 minutes in Defensive Box Plus-Minus (2.6). Sure, San Antonio is just 18th in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating. That’s nothing to write home about. But the team would be closer to the bottom of the league without Wembanyama putting a lid on the rim, while also causing chaos for opposing guards with his otherworldly length.
Best Bet You Can Make Now: Jaren Jackson Jr. (+750)
I mentioned that Wembanyama will win if he meets the game requirement, but there’s no guarantee he’s going to do that. Wembanyama has already missed five of the 24 games that San Antonio has played and that means that he can’t afford to miss another 12 games. That might not sound too bad, but the Spurs are very, very careful with him. He has also dealt with some minor injuries throughout the year. That said, if you have Wembanyama to win this award, you might want to take some shots elsewhere to protect your play. And if you don’t have Wembanyama, it isn’t the worst idea in the world to play somebody like Jackson. The Grizzlies big man is fourth in the NBA in stocks per game (3.3), and he’s anchoring a Memphis defense that is sixth in the league in adjusted defensive rating.
Sixth Man of the Year
Winner This Moment: Payton Pritchard (-260)
Pritchard is up from 9.6 points per game last year to a career high 16.1 points per game this year. The 26-year-old is also shooting 48.7% from the floor and 43.0% from 3. Those are both the best marks of his five-year career, and the 3-point shooting is what’s truly ridiculous. He’s launching 8.6 triples per game, and his ability to hit shots from deep is demoralizing for opponents. It also opens up driving lanes for his teammates.
Considering how big of a role Pritchard has for the best team in basketball, this award is likely going his way. He’s third on the Celtics in Estimated Plus-Minus (+3.3), ranking behind Tatum and Derrick White. That means he’s above Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis.
Best Bet You Can Make Now: De’Andre Hunter (15-1)
There’s no game limit for this award, so it shouldn’t hurt Hunter that he has played just 14 games this season. With that in mind, Hunter is one of the players that I can see pushing Pritchard moving forward. This season, Hunter is averaging 19.3 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the floor and 42.5% from 3. That field goal percentage is the second-highest mark of his career, and he has never shot the ball better from deep. Hunter has also scored at least 20 points in six of his last seven games. This recent run from Atlanta doesn’t happen without him giving the Hawks another sniper from deep, as well as a big body that can guard multiple spots.
Hunter is just locked in as a shooter right now, and he’s punishing opposing bench units. The only thing I’m worried about with Hunter is that he’s playing well enough to start, but I don’t think Atlanta is going to move Zaccharie Risacher to the bench. That would be a blow to the confidence of the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Coach of the Year
Winner This Moment: Kenny Atkinson (-120)
This one is pretty simple. You can’t say that anybody is doing a better job than Atkinson at this point. Cleveland has always had a good roster, but it had its flaws. Well, Atkinson has come in and hid those flaws. He has also taken everything to another level. Cleveland has the best record in basketball at 21-4, and the team is third in adjusted offensive rating and 10th in adjusted defensive rating. And realistically, the Cavs didn’t make any major changes to their roster in the offseason. The only differences have been the offensive and defensive schemes, so Atkinson deserves his flowers.
Best Bet You Can Make Now: Jamahl Mosley (10-1)
The Cavaliers started to slip a little before the NBA Cup quarterfinals. If they do ultimately slide out of the top spot in the Eastern Conference, other coaches will definitely have a shot at stealing this award from Atkinson. One of them is Mosley, who has the Magic in third in the Eastern Conference. The fact that Orlando has played this well with Paolo Banchero having only played five games is remarkable. And if the first two games without Wagner are any indication, the Magic should remain competitive without their two best players. That’s a testament to the culture that Mosley has put in place. His team is second in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating, and the team plays the right way offensively. Mosley is a gem.
Clutch Player of the Year
Winner This Moment: Kevin Durant (16-1)
Durant has only played 13 games this season, so it’s hard to give him any award — even if it’s fake. However, the Suns are 8-0 in crunch time games (games in which neither team is up by more than five with five minutes left) with Durant. The future Hall of Famer is also averaging 4.4 points per game on 63.2% shooting from the floor in clutch time. He has been Phoenix’s closer all year, and he’s the only reason there’s not a huge state-wide panic in Arizona right now. If he comes back and continues to have some clutch moments, he has a real shot here.
Best Bet You Can Make Now: Kevin Durant (16-1)
Considering what Durant has already done in crunch time this season, it’s worth backing him at the current number. It also doesn’t hurt that the Suns absolutely stink without him. Durant won’t win MVP, but award voters could look to get him some hardware if he has a case elsewhere. And I just don’t think anybody really stands out in this market. Jokic and De’Aaron Fox are the two betting favorites. Jokic’s numbers in crunch time aren’t that impressive, and Fox’s Kings are 5-9 in the 14 crunch time games they have played.
All-NBA Teams
There’s no betting angles here, as you really can’t bet on who makes the All-NBA teams. However, I’ve given picks for every other award, so why not finish the job? Here are my three All-NBA teams based solely on what we’ve seen to this point in the season. This does not account for the future. Plenty of players will play their way in and out of these teams.
First Team
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Luka Doncic
Jayson Tatum
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Nikola Jokic
Second Team
Donovan Mitchell
Franz Wagner
Stephen Curry
Anthony Davis
Victor Wembanyama
Third Team
Jalen Brunson
Kevin Durant
Anthony Edwards
Alperen Sengun
Karl-Anthony Towns
