NBA best bets and analysis for Friday, December 8th
NBA Betting Splits | NBA Odds | NBA Injury Reports | NBA Prop Analyzer
Best Bets
Record: 32-20-1 | Units: +10.66u | ROI: 19.06%
Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5, 235)
For whatever reason the Golden State Warriors have been underwhelming at home. On Wednesday they needed a late Steph Curry 3-point make to lock up a one-possession win – and failed cover – over Portland. The result dropped the Warriors to 8-12-1 ATS on the season and 1-9-1 ATS at home. Luckily, Golden State does not play in San Francisco tonight. It plays on the road in Oklahoma City where it will look to extend its 7-3 ATS road record. Judging by the way the market has moved this morning there are quite a few who believe that record will improve to 8-3 ATS tonight.
Homecourt in the NBA is worth just over 2.5 points at this point of the season. The opening number for this contest would suggest that Oklahoma City is the slightly better team on a neutral court, and it’s hard to disagree with that assessment. The Thunder are the statistically better team in almost every category. There is an argument to be made that Oklahoma City is undervalued by the betting market. It is 14-5-1 ATS on the season and at home the team is 7-3 ATS with a +6.3 net rating in non-garbage time. As was the case with Brooklyn on Wednesday against Atlanta, this is just a number play for me. I’ll lay a short number with the Thunder at home.
Play: Thunder (-2.5) – Playable to (-3.5)
Minnesota Timberwolves (-6.5, 216) at Memphis Grizzlies
The gap between Minnesota and Boston for best defense in the NBA continues to grow. The Timberwolves lead the league in non-garbage time defensive rating (106.6), and they have allowed 2.2 points per 100 possessions fewer in non-garbage time than the Celtics. It has been dominant on that end of the floor for Minnesota, and lesser offenses that run into this team have been absolutely suffocated. Look no further than Wednesday night when the Timberwolves held the Spurs to 0.929 points per possession and 94 points overall in a win at home. Minnesota gets another lackluster offense tonight in Memphis, and its hard to not see this game go the same way.
The Grizzlies are 27th in non-garbage time offensive efficiency this season. They averaged 108.1 points per 100 possessions, and against set defenses they average 90.3 points every 100 plays. Teams have been willing to let Memphis shoot and that has led to the team taking the fifth-highest frequency of 3-point attempts, but it is last in overall 3-point percentage (33.6%). The Grizzlies do run off live rebounds, but they rank 20th in offensive efficiency in those situations.
Ultimately this led to looking at Memphis’ team total tonight. They are 18th in pace this season, 27th in offense and 30th in 3-point shooting. Their opponent is the best defense in the NBA by a wide margin. San Antonio – a team on equal footing offensively with Memphis – was held to less than 100 points on Wednesday night. This should be a similar outcome tonight.
Play: Grizzlies TT UN 104.5 (-118) – Playable to (-125)
Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5, 225.5) at Utah Jazz
Los Angeles is starting to figure out how to play together. After the Clippers’ win over the Nuggets on Wednesday night the team’s net rating with its starting lineup – James Harden, Terance Mann, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and Ivica Zubac – is now +11.7 per 100 possessions. Their offensive rating with Harden on the floor and Russell Westbrook off the floor ranks in the 85th percentile of qualified lineups. They are only 7-3 SU/4-6 ATS in their last 10 contests, but it is impossible to ignore the improvements they have made. Just like it is impossible to ignore the struggles of their opponent tonight.
In the six games without Lauri Markkanen the Jazz are 3-3 SU/4-2 ATS despite being outscored by 11.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. The team has taken advantage of lesser opponents like Portland and took two games at home from New Orleans, but in the three losses the offense has clearly lacked efficiency. Utah is averaging just 103.1 points per 100 possessions since Markkanen’s injury, and for the season they have a 105.9 offensive rating in the minutes without him on the floor. Los Angeles should have no problem limiting this team’s production on offense while taking advantage of a defense which has allowed 118.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time this season.
Play: Clippers (-7.5) – Playable to (-8.5)
Best Bets
Thunder (-2.5)
Grizzlies TT UN 104.5 (-118)
Clippers (-7.5)
