NBA best bets and analysis for Monday, November 27th
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Best Bets
Record: 26-15-1 | Units: +10.06u | ROI: 22.82%
Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons (-3, 234.5)
Detroit has dropped its last 13 games and in those contests it is just 3-10 ATS. In these 13 games the Pistons have been outscored by 10.9 points per 100 possessions and they have failed to cover by 4.4 points per game. The only team that can come close to Detroit’s ineptitude is its opponent tonight. Washington is 1-13 SU/6-8 ATS over the same span. The Wizards have a -9.3 net rating in those 14 games, and their cover margin of -2.7 is 24th in the league. So, what gives in a meeting of two equally terrible teams?
It might be the scheduling situation. Washington is playing its third game in four nights while Detroit is playing just its second game in a week. Outside of a quick trip to Indiana on Friday they have been home as well. That means time to practice and get ready for a game they desperately need. The team is also getting healthier, as nine of the players in Monty Williams’ top 10 rotation do not have an injury designation tonight. It’s going to be ugly, but I believe Detroit can snap the skid tonight and do so by a small margin.
Play: Pistons (-2.5) – Playable to (-3)
Best Bets
Pistons (-2.5)
Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5, 231.5)
LeBron James carries his usual designation of questionable into this game against Philadelphia, but he has missed just one game this season so it is likely he plays tonight. Assuming the Lakers are at full strength we get a matchup of strength on strength between these two teams. The 76ers are third in non-garbage time offensive efficiency this season (120.7) and the Lakers rank ninth in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (111.8). Where this game might be won is with the reserves, which presents an in-game betting opportunity. When James is off the floor Los Angeles is outscored by 17.5 points every 100 possessions. Meanwhile, the 76ers outscore their opponents by 5.4 points every 100 possessions without Joel Embiid. An in-game wager depends on the situation, but should James take a break with the Lakers leading it would be a good time to get in on the 76ers, especially when the benches are on the floor.
*Portland Trail Blazers at Indiana Pacers (-11, 241.5)
Portland came out fresh in an early Sunday game against Milwaukee, but was ultimately outscored 33-14 in the fourth quarter of a 108-102 loss. There was no indication that anyone would rest tonight on the second leg of a back-to-back from head coach Chauncey Billups, but it always benefits bettors to wait for an official injury report. As for Indiana, their run of Overs continued on Friday against Detroit, making it a 12-0 run for the Pacers heading into tonight. The betting market is showing slight resistance tonight, as the total is down to 240.5 consensus. If there was a team that could ruin the run it would be the Trail Blazers. Portland is 24th in pace (98.19) and 79.1% of their plays come in halfcourt settings. It also averages the fewest points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time (105.8) of any team in the NBA. If there was a time to step in front of the train that is Indiana Pacers Overs, tonight would be the night.
New Orleans Pelicans (-3.5, 230.5) at Utah Jazz
The Pelicans are 5-2 SU/6-1 ATS in its last seven games, but they are coming off a loss against the Jazz on Saturday. It was the second leg of a back-to-back with no Zion Williamson after a hard-fought win in Los Angeles over the Clippers, so it could be considered a schedule loss more than anything else. This is obviously the second game of a two-game set between these two teams, so with a day to work on conditioning in altitude should help New Orleans tonight. If Lauri Markkanen misses this game – like he did over the weekend in the Jazz’s win – it would also work in the Pelicans favor. Williamson is also expected to play tonight, as he does not have an injury designation. The number is now -5 which is understandable, but those looking to back New Orleans should wait for clarity on Markkanen’s status. If he plays this number should approach the opening line by close.
*Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers (-4.5, 219)
It’s the second leg of a back-to-back for Denver tonight and the third game in four nights. The road has been an unfriendly place for the Nuggets – they are 1-8 ATS away from home and have failed to cover their last seven – and it seems that the market believes there will be some rest for at least one key role player tonight judging by the number. Meanwhile, the Clippers are starting to round into form. They are 4-1 SU/2-3 ATS in their last five games, and James Harden is getting comfortable in his role. In the possessions with Harden on the floor without Russell Westbrook, Los Angeles has a +7.5 net rating. Their starting lineup has a +29.0 net rating and limits opponents to 91.0 points per 100 possessions. Denver has dominated this series with Los Angeles, but if there was a time that the Clippers could catch the Nuggets sleeping it would be tonight.
