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NBA Best Bets
Record: 89-69-2 | Units: +15.00 | ROI: 8.7%
Boston Celtics (-7, 224.5) at New York Knicks
New York went to Philadelphia and dismantled the 76ers to snap a 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS slide, but this team is still very short handed. OG Anunoby, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson all remain sidelined. If those three were on the floor then this would not be a play. However, the Knicks’ lack of size along the wing will be a problem against the Celtics.
During New York’s six-game slide its defense was an issue. It allowed 126.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Elite offensive players along the perimeter burned them time after time. Luka Doncic had 39 points on 13-of-23 shooting. LeBron James dropped 24 on 10-of-19 from the floor. Paolo Banchero scored 36 points and hit 15-of-20 shot attempts. This version of the Knicks lacks the size along the perimeter to defend elite wing scorers and the Celtics have that in bunches.
Boston also has multiple defensive options for New York’s primary scorers. The Knicks’ offense has been very inconsistent with this short-handed roster. Even against the 76ers they only managed 1.147 points per possession in non-garbage time. New York has been consistent on the offensive glass, but Boston is seventh in defensive rebounding rate (74.2%) and match them on the boards.
The Celtics might be 11-14-2 ATS on the road this season, but I believe this matchup works too well in their favor. I’ll push back on the market a bit here and lay it with the road team.
Best Bet: Celtics (-6) – Playable to (-6.5)
NBA Best Bets
Celtics (-6)
Remaining Games
Orlando Magic (-8.5, 228.5) at Detroit Pistons
Orlando continued its winning ways against Cleveland on Thursday, improving to 8-3 SU/9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after the outright win. It’s hard to go against that run, especially with Detroit. The Pistons might be 18-11 ATS in their last 29 games, but they are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in their last four. They have also failed to cover their last three, all being double-digit spreads. The Magic are just in a groove right now, ranking 10th in both non-garbage time offensive (118.7) and defensive (114.7) efficiency. The market doesn’t seem to have much of an opinion on the side, but we have seen this total drop four points despite a 10-3 run to the over in Orlando games.
Brooklyn Nets at *Minnesota Timberwolves (-9.5, 218)
The market has come in on Brooklyn today, and given the situation it makes sense. Minnesota played a gritty contest with Milwaukee last night that ended at nearly midnight in Minneapolis. Now, the Timberwolves have to turn around and host a desperate Nets team in less than 24 hours. It’s a tough scheduling spot for sure, but is it enough to back Brooklyn? The Nets are 8-24 SU/8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games. Despite Kevin Ollie taking over and implementing some new practices they were rolled in Toronto on Thursday night. In fact, Cam Thomas gave voice to some confusion from the team when it came to the new terminology Ollie was installing. I understand the situation, but I couldn’t do it with Brooklyn right now.
