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NBA Best Bets
Record: 97-83-2 | Units: +8.0 | ROI: 4.1%
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Brooklyn Nets (-3, 216) at Detroit Pistons
Brooklyn enters this game on a nice 4-2 ATS run over its previous six games. But, injuries and a negative scheduling situation threaten to derail this train. The Nets lost Cameron Johnson to an ankle sprain last time out. He joins Cam Thomas and Ben Simmons – who was ruled out for the season this morning – on the bench. It’s a massive loss for Brooklyn as it goes to Detroit.
Injuries aside, this is also a negative scheduling spot for the Nets, as they are playing their fourth game in six nights against one of the better ATS teams of the last month.
The Pistons come into this game 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games. They have covered by 4.5 points per game, the third-best spread differential in the league. Their defense has improved greatly, at least when compared to where they were prior to this run.
In the end, this a play against the scheduling situation and the injury report for Brooklyn. These two teams are not that far apart from one another once you factor in the missing pieces for the Nets. I’ll take my chances with Detroit at home here.
Best Bet: Pistons ML (+120) – Playable to (+110)
Boston Celtics (-2, 223.5) at Denver Nuggets
Overnight we saw Boston as a small favorite at a few books, but once a majority of shops hung this contest it was Denver that was the favored side. Having said that, the move toward the Nuggets might be more about Jaylen Brown’s questionable status than the market believing in the home team here.
This is just a play on principle for me. The market has the Celtics rated as the best team in the NBA by a mile, and it seems to have forgotten how good the Nuggets are. Denver went into Boston just over a month ago and handed the Celtics an outright loss as a 7-point underdog. These two teams are equal to one another. The Nuggets are rightful favorites to win the Western Conference, and still as good as the team that rolled to the NBA Finals a season ago. Michael Malone always has his team ready for spots like this. A team like Denver should be getting much more respect on its home floor.
Best Bet: Nuggets (-1) – Playable to (-2)
NBA Best Bets
Pistons ML (+120)
Nuggets (-1)
Remaining Games
Minnesota Timberwolves (-2.5, 234.5) at Indiana Pacers
It was reported that Karl-Anthony Towns will miss an undisclosed amount of time with a partially torn meniscus in his knee today. The market had already established Towns’ absence by the time the news came out, so the price we see now has fully matured. Now, it is about finding out whether the adjustment is enough. The Timberwolves average just 111.1 points per 100 possessions without Towns this season. Their potential starting lineup – with Naz Reid in place of Towns – has a +20.4 net rating. However, it is due an insane defensive rating. Minnesota only puts up 1.051 points per possession with that group on the floor. The bet I believed to be worth making was on under the total, but this number is down to 227.5 consensus so I was priced out quickly.
Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks (-5, 228.5)
Miami was one of the hottest teams in the league, but it would seem we’ve reached the peak of its market price. The Heat won both games at home after a six-game road trip, but failed to cover both as big favorites. Still, the market has come in on Miami once again today, and it does make sense despite recent results. Dallas is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three games. Its defense has allowed 132.1 points per 100 possessions in those losses. Even against a bad offense like the Heat’s, it is likely this Mavericks defense will put forth a subpar effort. The opening number would indicate that Dallas is the better team, but these two clubs are much closer to equals. It is likely why we have seen the number move in Miami’s direction.
Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns (-9, 231.5)
Phoenix has not played well recently. It comes into this contest 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS in its last seven games. The Suns’ offense over this stretch has managed just 111.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, and as a result they have a -0.6 net rating. It might not be the time to bet on Phoenix, but Toronto is dealing with a rash of injuries at this point. Scottie Barnes, Bruce Brown, and Jakob Poeltl are all out tonight. Ochai Agbaji is questionable with knee soreness. Should Agbaji miss this game the Raptors will be hurting for perimeter defenders, but even if he does go they lack true defensive matchups for Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. The market has jumped on the Suns – likely as a result of the injuries for the Raptors – and it is hard to disagree with the move.
*Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors (-5.5, 226)
Chicago and Golden State both played on Thursday night, so we do not have official injury designations for either team. That keeps me from getting involved, but the market has no qualms it seems. The Warriors are now 7.5-point favorites this morning, and why not? Golden State is now 15-7 SU/16-6 ATS since Draymond Green returned from his suspension, and the team absolutely blasted Milwaukee last night. There is no question the Warriors are rounding into a dangerous form, but at what point does the market rating become too high? Chicago has been inconsistent against the number for some time now, and traveling on no rest is a very negative situation. The Bulls are also 6-16 SU/11-11 ATS as a road underdog and 5-5 SU and ATS when playing on a back-to-back.
San Antonio Spurs at *Sacramento Kings (-9.5, 241)
This could be a massive letdown spot for Sacramento after a win over Los Angeles last night. However, Victor Wembanyama is out once again for San Antonio, and that makes this a tough spot to test that theory. The Spurs have a -12.1 net rating in their possessions without Wembanyama on the floor. They give up 124.4 points every 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Despite the Kings playing on no rest, this is absolutely a spot in which San Antonio still gets blasted. Obviously the market agrees with that sentiment, as this number is up to -11 across the board. Usually we see the market “charge” the team playing on no rest a point, but this is not the case here.
