Today we have a loaded slate of College Basketball action with 55-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games tonight.
8:30 p.m. ET: Grambling State (-2.5, 132.5) at Alabama A&M
Grambling State (16-13) has won eight of their last nine games and just outlasted Bethune Cookman 69-60. Meanwhile, Alabama A&M (9-20) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 58-53 win over Alabama State. This line opened with Grambling State listed as a 2-point road favorite. We’ve seen Grambling State rise from -2 to -2.5, signaling smart money laying the points with the road favorite. This line move is especially notable because this is a tiny added/extra game (306555-306556), which means the public has no interest in this matchup and can’t even find it on their app. However, based on the line move, we can deduce that pros have targeted Grambling and forced oddsmakers to adjust the line in their favor. Grambling State is receiving 83% of spread bets and 92% of spread dollars, further evidence of one-sided action going with the road favorite. Grambling State has the better offensive efficiency (308th vs 352nd) and better defensive efficiency (200th vs 255th). Grambling State also has the better effective field goal percentage (48% vs 45%) and better three-point shooting (33% vs 28%). Ken Pom has Grambling State winning by three points (69-66). He also has them ranked higher (284th vs 336th). Grambling State is -145 on the moneyline for those looking to avoid a short win that may not cover the spread. Grambling State is 13-3 in conference play. Alabama A&M is 8-8. This is also a revenge spot for Grambling State, who lost to Alabama A&M at home 60-50 in mid-February.
9 p.m. ET: Colorado at Oregon (-3, 150)
Colorado (20-9) has won four straight games and just brushed aside Stanford 81-71. On the flip side, Oregon (19-10) has lost two of their last three games and just fell to Arizona 103-83. This line opened with Oregon listed as a 1-point home favorite. The public is all over Colorado as a short dog, as they have the slightly better record and are riding a win streak. However, despite 61% of spread bets taking Colorado, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Oregon (-1 to -3). This signals sharp reverse line movement on Oregon, with pros fading the trendy dog Buffaloes and instead backing the unpopular Ducks at home. Oregon is only receiving 39% of spread bets but a whopping 85% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Oregon has buy-low, sell-high value as the Ducks have lost two of three while the Buffaloes have won four straight. Oregon takes better care of the ball, ranking 64th in turnovers compared to 272nd for Colorado. Those looking to protect themselves from a tight win that may not cover the number could instead play the Ducks on the moneyline at -150. Oregon is 12-2 at home. Colorado is just 2-7 on the road. Pac 12 home favorites are 56-24 straight up (70%) in conference play this season. Oregon has a one-day rest advantage, having last played on March 2nd while Colorado last played March 3rd. This is also a revenge spot for Oregon, who lost to Colorado on the road 86-70 in mid-January.
9 p.m. ET: Milwaukee at Green Bay (-1.5, 145.5)
This is the Quarterfinal of the Horizon League Conference Tournament. Milwaukee (18-14) is the 6-seed and just took down Detroit 83-79 in the first round. Meanwhile, Green Bay (18-13) is the 3-seed and received a bye in the first round. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 1-point home favorite. This is a true home game for Green Bay and will not be played at a neutral site. The public is relatively undecided and doesn’t know which side to take. However, we’ve seen Green Bay move from -1 to -1.5. Some shops are even up to -2. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even. However, not all tickets are created equally, as some are $5 Average Joe bets while others are $1000 “dime wagers” coming from respected wiseguys. Based on the 50/50 line move, it appears as though pros are backing Green Bay at home. Green Bay is only receiving 47% of spread bets but 62% of spread dollars, further evidence of smart money in their favor. Green Bay has the better effective field goal percentage (53% vs 51%) and better defensive efficiency (222nd vs 322nd). Green Bay is allowing 68 PPG compared to Milwaukee allowing 79 PPG. Ken Pom has Green Bay winning by four points (75-71). This provides actionable value on the Green Bay moneyline (-125). Green Bay is 10-4 at home. Milwaukee is 5-9 on the road. Green Bay has a notable rest advantage, as they are off a bye and last played on March 2nd while Milwaukee played on March 5th. This is also a revenge spot for Green Bay, who lost to Milwaukee on the road 90-69 in the last game of the regular season.
