NBA: Best bets and analysis for Thursday, October 26th

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NBA best bets and analysis for 2 games today

NBA Betting Splits | NBA Odds | NBA Injury Reports

 

Best Bets

Record: 3-1 | Units: +1.95u | ROI: 45.88%

(Listed lines are opening numbers)

Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5, 225.5)

The betting market continues to come in on Milwaukee here, and it’s not hard to understand why. Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo look like they could be the next great duo in the league, James Harden is not with Philadelphia and the 76ers look like they could be in disarray. However, this line might be heading too far in one direction.

Joel Embiid is still on this roster at last look. He’s averaged 30.3 points and 8.7 rebounds in his last three games against the Bucks, and not much has changed up front for Milwaukee. The Bucks are also weaker at the point of attack on defense with Lillard at point guard. Tyrese Maxey could certainly win a few possessions against Lillard. Nick Nurse also stalks the sideline for Philadelphia now. Nurse is one of the best defensive-minded coaches in the NBA, and he is known for game-planning more than most in the regular season on that end of the floor. Milwaukee can expect a myriad of defensive schemes coming their way tonight.

The 76ers also have some depth to their roster that the Bucks don’t have right now. Harden is a vital piece for Philadelphia if it wants to win a title. However, the 76ers have enough depth, coaching and defense to stay inside a big number against an opponent playing its star duo for the first time. Some offshore markets are at 6.5 this morning so this might move against me initially, but this should be about the best number available today.

Play: 76ers (+6) – Playable at (+6) or better

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers (-1.5, 230)

The Phoenix Suns’ nonsense with injury reports will last at least one more day. Bradley Beal is listed as doubtful with a back injury that kept him out of the season opener in San Francisco, and Devin Booker is doubtful as of this morning with foot soreness. If Booker had been available this would be a play on Phoenix, but with only Kevin Durant available it would be hard to come in on the Suns here. 

It was obvious in the win over the Warriors on Tuesday that Phoenix – despite doing an admiral job with the bench personnel – is going to struggle to score without its three best players. Frank Vogel decided to roll with an all bench lineup at certain points in that game, the Suns put up just 0.6 points per possession, according to Cleaning The Glass. That unit is going to be on the floor for long stretches in this game tonight.

One thing bettors can look at here is Anthony Davis player props. Everyone can remember that Davis went 0-of-6 in the second half against the Nuggets, but this will be a different matchup. He won’t be playing in Denver, which can suck the air out of visiting opponents’ lungs in the early portion of the season. Back home against a Phoenix team with a less imposing frontline Davis should be in line for a big night. Especially if what we learned on Tuesday was true, and LeBron James is on a minutes restriction. The usage should be even higher for Davis this season, which the market might not factor in enough.

Play: Anthony Davis PTS OV 22.5 (-115) – Playable up to (-130)

Best Bets

76ers (+6)
Anthony Davis PTS OV 22.5 (-115)