NBA best bets and analysis for Tuesday, November 28th
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Best Bets
Record: 26-16-1 | Units: +8.96u | ROI: 19.83%
Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets (-2, 223)
Is there a point where Brooklyn’s blistering shooting comes back to the mean? The Nets are fourth in frequency of attempts from beyond the arc, and they are third in 3-point shooting (39.7%). Their accuracy on wide-open attempts is an insane 46.8%; the second-best team are the Mavericks which hit 42.2% of their wide-open 3-point attempts. It’s hard to bank on regression because the time at which it hits is random, but playing one of the best defenses in the NBA could help jump-start the process.
Toronto is a sound defensive team that allows just 112.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. The Raptors give up an average amount of 3-point attempts, and do not allow a high frequency of uncontested looks. Their ability to rebound will limit the second-chance opportunities for the Nets – Brooklyn generates 19.1 putback plays per 100 missed attempts – and they are in better health. Nic Claxton is questionable to play tonight with an ankle sprain, Cam Thomas is doubtful and Ben Simmons remains out.
Play: Raptors ML (+105) – Playable to (-110)
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics (-12, 217.5)
Alex Caruso and Zach LaVine are questionable to play for Chicago tonight, and as a result the market is jumping on Boston. The Bulls are the worst cover team in the NBA at 5-12-1 ATS this season, and they are riding an 0-4 ATS slide into this game with the Celtics. Chicago has been subpar on both ends of the floor, but what has really struggled is its offense. The Bulls are averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions on the season, and without one of their primary offensive creators in LaVine, that could be much worse tonight. They rank in the 32nd percentile in offensive efficiency without LaVine on the floor, and their most used lineup averages just 0.806 points per possession.
Against Boston – which might not have Jrue Holiday – that is going to be a problem. It’s also a Celtics team which will be motivated to win by margin. Boston wins Group C and advances to the knockout stage of the In-Season Tournament with a win of 22 points or more. Whether they achieve that obviously remains to be seen, but the Celtics will attempt to win by a great margin, and against a lesser team like the Bulls it could happen. With that in mind, I’ll look to play the Celtics over their team total this evening.
Play: Celtics TT OV 116.5 (-110) – Playable to (-120)
Best Bets
Raptors ML (+105)
Celtics TT OV 116.5 (-110)
Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks (-10.5, 223)
LaMelo Ball was carried off the court in the Hornets’ loss to the Magic on Sunday and he is listed as doubtful for this game against the Knicks. Charlotte actually has a better net rating when Ball is off the floor (-6.5) than when he is on (-7.4), but this is an instance in which we can ignore the numbers. Ball is averaging 24.7 points, 5.5 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game. He leads the team in usage rate by a wide margin, and while Terry Rozier’s return will help lessen the impact of his absence it will not cover for his play-making ability. This is obviously why this number opened as high as it did and climbed 1.5 points from the overnight opener. New York might be 0-3 ATS in its last three games, but this is a solid spot for a team that loves to play the role of bully against bad teams. I believe it to be accurately priced, but if the Hornets get off to a good start there will be value in coming in on the Knicks in-game.
In-Season Tournament Scenario
New York can still win Group B with a win and a Milwaukee loss today. That would create a three-way tie in the group which would come down to point differential, so the Knicks will be motivated to win by margin tonight. They have a +18 differential compared to +39 for the Bucks. New York can also win the wild card in the East with a win and losses by Brooklyn, Boston, Cleveland and Miami. It can also increase its odds of winning the wild card exponentially with a win of at least eight points, barring wins of great margin from both Cleveland, Boston or Brooklyn.
Charlotte is still alive to make the wild card, but would need Miami, Brooklyn, Cleveland and Boston to all lose. It also needs to beat New York tonight by 40 points.
Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers (-6, 237.5)
Cleveland is in the midst of a very busy stretch on its schedule. It is playing its fifth game in eight nights tonight against Atlanta, and the results have been inconsistent to say the least. The Cavaliers are 8-5 SU/7-6 ATS in the month of November, and they have covered consecutive games just once this season. The biggest issue for Cleveland has been injuries to its backcourt. Donovan Mitchell has been back for just the last two games after missing four straight due to injury, and Darius Garland missed four of the first five games. That is likely why a team with a talented backcourt like this is just 24th in non-garbage time offensive efficiency (111.7). The offense should get better with time, and the first step could be tonight against Atlanta. The Hawks are 23rd in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (116.8) and 20th in halfcourt defensive efficiency (98.4). This has led Atlanta to being one of the worst cover teams in the league to this point at 5-11 ATS. The market is in on them once again tonight, but it’s hard to back either team given how fickle their performances have been.
In-Season Tournament Scenario
Atlanta needs both Brooklyn and Boston to lose, win by at least 18 points and have Charlotte win but not without surpassing them in point differential to get the wild card in the East.
Cleveland’s simplest route to the knockout stage of the tournament is a win and losses by New York, Miami, Boston and Brooklyn. A win by at least 17 points would give them a very good chance at stealing the wild card as well.
Milwaukee Bucks (-3, 226) at Miami Heat
Jimmy Butler is questionable to play tonight, and with his status up in the air it is nearly impossible to recommend a pre-flop bet. Butler missed Miami’s loss to Brooklyn so his status is truly unknown. Milwaukee is also not a team bettors should flock to lay points with. The Bucks came back and beat the Trail Blazers on Sunday, but they failed to cover which dropped their record to 6-11 ATS on the season. The Heat are no great bet themselves at 7-9-1 ATS this year. Given those figures and the impact Butler can have on the point spread this should be an easy game for bettors to scratch off the card.
In-Season Tournament Scenario
Milwaukee is undefeated in group play and can clinch Group B – along with the top seed in the East – with a win in this contest. The Bucks can also lose and win the group, but it would need to be by fewer than 14 points while the Knicks fail to make up fewer than 21 points in the differential.
Miami can win Group B with a win over Milwaukee coupled with a New York loss to Charlotte. The Heat can also win the group with a win tonight by 14 or more points while the Knicks win by seven or fewer points. Should Miami win by more than 14 points and Boston, Brooklyn and Cleveland all lose it would clinch the wild card.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves (-4, 226)
Minnesota had its undefeated run at home snapped by Sacramento on Friday, and tonight it must look to contain Oklahoma City without Jaden McDaniels. That absence alone could be enough to swing things in the Thunder’s favor, and the betting market seems to believe that as this has been bet down to -3 at most shops. Oklahoma City also comes in on two days of rest and on a 9-2 ATS run over its last 11 games. The Timberwolves have been a nice surprise to start the season, but it seems fair to rate both them and the Thunder as equals on a neutral court, which is what the market has done in betting this line down.
In-Season Tournament Scenario
Oklahoma City has been eliminated from contention.
Minnesota needs to win this game by at least 37 points for a chance at a spot in the knockout stage of the tournament.
Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks (-5, 232.5)
Houston enters this game with Dallas on an 11-0 ATS run, and the market is buying in on the trend. It’s hard to go against that run, especially with a team that has been as inconsistent as Dallas. The Mavericks are just 2-4 ATS at home this season and 2-4 ATS in their last six games. Their problem is a defense which allows 117.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. The Rockets are only 15th in offensive efficiency this season, but they are competent enough on that end of the floor to take advantage of one of the worst defenses in the NBA. Houston also has a massive rest advantage here, as it has not played for the last three days.
In-Season Tournament Scenario
Houston wins Group B if they beat Dallas tonight, and it is eliminated if it loses.
Dallas has been eliminated from contention.
Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings (-2, 238.5)
Golden State is 3-8 SU/2-8-1 ATS in its previous 11 contests, but it gets Draymond Green back from a suspension tonight. Green’s return should help the Warriors on both ends of the floor, and it is likely why they are getting support from the market today. Green is a known commodity on defense, and on offense this season he has improved Golden State’s offensive rating by 1.2 points per 100 possessions. It’s not much, but it is great for team which has averaged just 111.2 points per 100 possessions over this 11-game slump. Having said that, the Kings have been off for the last three days, and it is a near certainty they have been preparing for the team which eliminated them in seven games last postseason. They are also 7-3 SU and ATS in the 10 games in which De’Aaron Fox has played.
In-Season Tournament Scenario
Golden State wins Group C with a win and a Minnesota loss. They can also win the group on point differential if they win by at least 13 points and the Timberwolves win but by at least eight points more than the Warriors. Golden State advances regardless if they beat Sacramento by at least 29 points.
Sacramento wins Group C with a win over Golden State. It can still win the group on point differential with a loss of fewer than 12 points and a Minnesota win of 20 points or fewer.
