NBA Best Bets for Saturday, May 4th
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NBA Best Bets
Record: 121-123-3 | Units: -11.5
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets (-5, 210)
Initial market support came in on Minnesota for this game tonight, and that shouldn’t be a surprise considering the movement we saw in the series price when it was posted. However, we’re starting to see some buyback on the favorite and there are a variety of numbers for this contest.
Minnesota will be the side for me here. The Timberwolves are a team I have believed in since they put the roster together last season, and we are finally starting to see it all come together. They also did a brilliant job against Denver in the regular season.
In four games the Nuggets averaged just 109.1 points per 100 possessions. They were outscored by 5.7 points per 100 possessions. That was with Nikola Jokic on the floor for all four games. No one stops Jokic – more on that later – but Minnesota can stop the pieces around him, and that is where they had success. The Timberwolves also boast a bench which is deeper than the Nuggets’ current roster.
I’ll also look toward a player prop here.
As previously mentioned, Jokic played in all four games against the Timberwolves this season, and he was his usual brilliant self. He averaged 33.3 points and 11.8 rebounds on 58.4% shooting. The big negative for Jokic was a paltry 4.3 assists per game. Minnesota was brilliant in cutting off assist opportunities for the league’s best player. It was comfortable sticking Naz Reid on Jokic, using Rudy Gobert as a help defender and making sure no one else beat it.
I believe that is what we are going to see tonight. Much like he did throughout the regular season, Jokic should be able to get his from a scoring standpoint. But, the Timberwolves have elite perimeter defenders in Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. They will not be burnt off the ball. Neither will Mike Conley. Those three should be able to limit the assist opportunities for the Denver big man tonight.
Play: Timberwolves (+5) | Jokic UN 8.5 AST (+102)
