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NBA Best Bets
Record: 120-121-3 | Units: -10.4 | ROI: -4.1%
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (-15.5, 199.5)
Boston closes out the series with a win tonight, and it is obviously extremely likely that happens. The only real intrigue for this contest is the total.
The overnight number for this game was 199.5 but as of this morning 200.5 is the consensus total. A move of a point is not much on the surface, but a point in a game with a total under 200 that bump is significant. It is also significant because the market has been chasing the total for the entirety of the series.
In three of the four games in this series the market has pushed the total up. The under is 3-1 in this series, and in the games that have gone under the total it has done so by an average of 11.7 points per game. The lone game that went over was the contest which saw the Heat shoot 53.5% from beyond the arc.
Those who shape the market see something here, and I agree. In fact, I tried to play over on Saturday, but Miami managed just 84 points and the game stayed under by a decent margin. The signs are there though, and we’ve come a long way from the closing total of 211.5 for the first game of this series.
So, I’ll try this one last time. Boston is back at home where its shooting should be much better than the combined 33.8% it shot in Miami. The pace the Celtics played with was slightly quicker at home (92.00 possessions per game) than it was on the road (89.50). Kristaps Porzingis’ absence also means less possessions wasted with a man working in the post, and slightly worse – albeit not by much – defensive play from Boston.
Play: OVER 200
Remaining Games
Dallas Mavericks (-1.5, 211.5) at Los Angeles Clippers
Through four games there is no real discernable edge for either Dallas or Los Angeles in this series. The Mavericks have a +0.9 net rating for the series, but the Clippers are +3 in points. Dallas has outscored Los Angeles by 31 points in the minutes with Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic on the floor, but the Clippers are +34 in the minutes against any other Mavericks lineup.
It might be a reductionist approach to say whichever team makes its shots will win the game, but it’s hard not to lean on that trope.
In the two games Los Angeles has won it has averaged 121.7 points per 100 possessions and shot 55.4% from deep. James Harden has averaged 30.5 points and 7.5 assists on 58.8% shooting in the victories, but just 21.5 points and 6.5 assists on 48.1% shooting in the losses. If the Mavericks cannot contain him or the Clippers’ shooting back at home this will be a 3-2 series for Los Angeles heading back to Dallas.
At the same time, the Mavericks can rest on the fact that this series is tied with Luka Doncic playing – by his standards – subpar basketball. Doncic is averaging 29.0 points, 9.8 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game for the series, but on just 38.6% shooting from the floor. He is shooting just 26.5% from deep. A knee injury has likely hampered him, and regression to the mean is not guaranteed. This could last throughout the rest of this series.
So, how does one bet this game?
The market drove this number up to -3 after the news of Kawhi Leonard being ruled out, but there is no need to move based on that information. Leonard is a shell of himself and worth nothing to a spread. Once can make the argument Los Angeles has some value here. But, given the nature of this series, in-game is the way to attack this contest. These games have been tight and volatile. No matter what the side you like, you should be able to find a better number at some point.
