NBA Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Monday, February 6th

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Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page

 

Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 46-51 | Units: -8.28 | ROI: -8.79%

Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5, 217.5) at Brooklyn Nets

Thanks to both the trade of Kyrie Irving and injuries, the Brooklyn Nets are going to be short-handed tonight. Obviously, Irving is gone, Seth Curry is out with an injury and Ben Simmons is questionable to play. That should mean another start for Edmond Sumner at point guard, Patty Mills entering the starting lineup and an extremely short rotation for Jacque Vaughn. On Saturday, that group gave up 1.194 points per possession in non-garbage time to the Washington Wizards in a quick game that had about 103 possessions. The same should be expected here against Los Angeles. 

The Clippers are on the final game of a six-game road trip, and their defense has been inconsistent lately. Since Jan. 13 they have allowed 119.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. The Knicks abused them for 1.198 points per possession on Saturday night, and given the scheduling situation, it is hard to expect anything less than what we have seen for the last month. Having said that, Los Angeles’ offense has been operating at a very high level, putting up a 120.1 offensive rating over the same span. They should be able to take advantage of this ragtag group tonight. Instead of laying what is a somewhat bloated number, I’ll bet on a high-scoring affair.

Bet: OVER 217.5

Best Bet Recap

Clippers/Nets OVER (217.5)

NBA Games & Odds

Boston Celtics (-11, 229.5) at Detroit Pistons

Boston fell to Phoenix on Friday night and is now 1-7 ATS in its last eight games. The Pistons have recently been a thorn in the side of the Celtics — Detroit is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings — but those teams were slightly different than the one taking the floor for the Pistons now. Detroit has been constantly tinkering with its starting lineup and has a -9.4 net rating since the beginning of January. This is likely one of the lowest-handled games of the night, and there probably won’t be much movement.

*Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards (-3, 225)

Cleveland comes in with no rest tonight, so keep an eye out for the injury report. Donovan Mitchell missed some time recently with a groin injury, so he is a clear candidate to sit. Washington has dropped its last two, both SU and ATS but has been playing better basketball as of late (7-4 SU and ATS last 11 games). However, as well as the Wizards have been playing, this line would tell us these two are near equals, something that has not been the case all season, so it seems the market is assuming someone will sit. Bradley Beal is questionable as well, meaning there are plenty of ways this line could move.

San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls (-9.5, 237.5)

San Antonio could be without three starters when it takes the floor tonight. Jeremy Sochan has already been ruled out with back soreness, and both Tre Jones and Keldon Johnson are questionable to play. That is why this number is up to 10.5 consensus, and it will get higher if neither can go. The Spurs have been sliding as it is, coming into this game 0-8 SU/1-7 ATS in their last eight and 1-13 SU/5-9 ATS in their last 14. Monitoring the injury report will be key here, and if both Johnson and Jones are ruled out, act fast.

*Sacramento Kings (-5.5, 234.5) at Houston Rockets

It might not be a coincidence that Jalen Green returned to the starting lineup and Houston went back to getting blown out. The Rockets gave up 1.577 points per possession in non-garbage time in a loss to the Thunder on Saturday, and while it is not all Green’s fault, he by no means improves their defense. With Green on the floor, Houston allows 7.5 more points per 100 possessions, and that will be exploited by Sacramento if it is at full strength. De’Aaron Fox has missed the last two games due to personal reasons, and there is no indication as to what his status will be here. If Fox is back and there are no other missing pieces, this number will climb.

 

 

Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz (-9, 220.5)

Dallas is expected to be very short-handed here after the trade for Kyrie Irving was completed on Sunday. Luka Doncic is out with a heel injury, and both Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith are now members of the Brooklyn Nets. Christian Wood could return tonight, but this team will be hard-pressed to find its offense without Doncic. He and Dinwiddie were the primary offensive creators for Dallas, and in the possessions on which neither was on the floor, the Mavericks averaged just 101.0 points per 100 possessions and had a -12.1 net rating. With those numbers, it’s easy to see why this number is where it is. Having said that, this version of Dallas is sound defensively and has a 113.2 defensive rating.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors (-4.5, 237.5)

Stephen Curry is out due to the lower leg injury suffered against Dallas on Saturday, but luckily he is the only player of note for Golden State who will not play. The Warriors have a -6.0 net rating when Curry is off the floor, and when he missed 11 games earlier in the season Golden State went 6-5 SU and ATS with a -4.3 net rating. Curry’s injury also comes after Steve Kerr told the media he was moving Jordan Poole back to the bench. Does that move go on hiatus, or does Donte DiVincenzo, or someone else, get a chance to start? Poole on the floor with Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney has produced a -6.7 net rating in an extremely small sample size. Do not be surprised if the Warriors decide to go another direction.

Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5, 239.5) at Portland Trail Blazers

Jusuf Nurkic will not play tonight for Portland, but it might not be the biggest loss for this offense. When Nurkic is on the floor this season, the Trail Blazers score 2.2 fewer points per 100 possessions, and when Damian Lillard is on the floor without him, they have a 123.1 offensive rating. Nurkic is still a stout rim defender, so where bettors will see his absence make a difference is with this total, which is up to 240 at some shops. Milwaukee has won seven straight, and the market loves this team right now. However, in a game with such a high total, it would benefit bettors more to wait for an in-game opportunity.