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All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.
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*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Record: 39-45 | Units: -9.74 | ROI: -11.58%
This will be the second game New York will play since losing Mitchell Robinson to a thumb injury. Jericho Sims got the start in his place, and the result was in line with what we have seen throughout the season. With Sims on the floor the Knickerbockers allow 119.9 points per 100 possessions with a -8.5 net rating, and in their loss to Atlanta on Friday New York allowed 1.457 points per possession. It was hardly all on Sims, but it’s clear that the rotation of Sims and Isaiah Hartenstein will not be as effective. The betting market has dropped this line to PK across the board with the total slowly climbing to 222 consensus. Keep in mind, OG Anunoby left the Raptors’ loss yesterday with an ankle injury and did not return, likely contributing to this line move toward the Knicks.
Bet: OVER 221.5
The status of Phoenix’s roster today is a question. Deandre Ayton missed the game yesterday with a non-COVID illness, and Cam Johnson sat out due to management of the knee injury he is returning from. Bettors can expect Johnson to be on the floor, but Ayton is a question at best. As is the status of Chris Paul, who was upgraded to questionable the other day, but did not return to action. If Ayton and Paul return, along with the expected play of Johnson, this number will likely head back toward the home team. As for Memphis, the team’s road struggles continued the other night when it gave up 41 points in the fourth quarter in the loss to Los Angeles. The Grizzlies are now 11-11 SU/8-12-2 ATS away from home this season.
Bet: Suns (+10)
Golden State returns home from a five-game road trip in which it went 4-1 ATS, and the team is as healthy as it has been all season. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is on the penultimate stop of a trip which will end in Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Nets’ run of Unders continued in Utah last time out, making it 9-2 to the Under in the last 11 games, and 4-1 since losing Kevin Durant. In those five games Brooklyn has averaged just 105.8 points per 100 possessions, as Kyrie Irving is the only consistent form of offensive creation this team has. It is likely this inefficient scoring continues here against Golden State, which ranks second in non-garbage time defensive efficiency at home (107.4).
Bet: UNDER 236
Best Bet Recap
Knicks/Raptors OV (221.5)
Nets/Warriors UN (236)
NBA Games & Odds
Los Angeles is expected to be at near full strength for this meeting in Dallas this afternoon. The only players who will not play are Luke Kennard and John Wall, the latter being a minimal loss considering his -7.8 efficiency differential when on the floor. The Clippers beat the Spurs on Friday night, but the team gave up 1.42 points per possession and needed to rally for the win. The failed cover brought them to 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. In this contest they have to find a way to contain Luka Doncic, who has regularly picked apart their defense and comes into this game averaging 32.5 points, 8.7 rebounds and 7.9 assists on 48.2% shooting from the floor. When these two teams met just 12 days ago Doncic dropped 43 points, his fourth straight game of 35+ points against Los Angeles. His points, rebounds and assists prop for today is 53.5 at DraftKings.
The betting market has put an emphasis on homecourt this season, and the evidence is there that this season it is worth just over 3 points. In this game, oddsmakers were not accounting for that when it hung an overnight line of 6.5 and bettors have corrected that. When these two teams met in New Orleans three days ago the Heat closed as 3.5-point favorites and won going away. If we consider that number to be accurate then this number should be 9.5 in favor of Miami with this contest now back in South Beach, and sure enough we now see -8 on the board. There is technically still some value here for those who think that full swing to 9.5 should happen, and with 8.5 at a couple shops it does not seem that this is heading back toward the Pelicans which are 3-8 SU and ATS in their last 11 games.
Nikola Jokic is questionable to play, so his status is all that matters for this game tonight. Without Jokic on the floor Denver is outscored by 10.7 points per 100 possessions, a net rating that is much worse than that of San Antonio which is dead last in net rating (-8.7). To make matters somewhat more murky, both Jamal Murray and Bones Hyland are questionable to play as well. In the scenario in which all three miss this game the line will drop by quite a bit, so clarity on each one of their statuses is a necessity before getting involved. The total has climbed to 239 at a few shops, but that will drop should the Nuggets come into this game short-handed.