NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 11/10

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.

 

Market Report for Thursday, November 10th

* Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 15-16 | Units: -1.81 | ROI: -6.12%

None tonight on a short slate.

The Rest

Philadelphia 76ers at *Atlanta Hawks (-1.5, 222.5)

The loss to Utah snapped a 3-0 SU and ATS run for Atlanta, but it did expose what has been an issue for the Hawks all season: inconsistent defensive play. Atlanta does rank 14th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency, but its got four games in which they have allowed more than 1.2 points per possession and four games in which it limited opponents to 1.009 points per possession or fewer. Their halfcourt offense has been consistently poor, and now ranks 18th in the league at 95.6 points per 100 plays allowed. That is a problem tonight, as they face the second most halfcourt oriented team in the NBA in Philadelphia. Joel Embiid is back as well, and there is concern that Trae Young, who has been dealing with shin soreness, could sit the second leg of a back-to-back tonight. The market is slowing moving in the direction of Philadelphia here, not surprising given the situation for Atlanta.

*Dallas Mavericks (-2.5, 209) at Washington Wizards

Rest is always a concern for superstars on the second leg of back-to-backs, so keep that in mind here for Luka Doncic who has played in every game for Dallas and averaged 36.6 minutes in the process. The Mavericks’ loss last night dropped them to 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games, but a troubling trend is starting to emerge for the team. With Doncic on the floor Dallas outscores opponents by 4.8 points per 100 possessions with an offensive rating of 117.0, according to Cleaning The Glass. When Doncic leaves the floor their net rating drops to -0.4 and their offense only averaged 106.2 points per 100 possessions. Those non-Doncic possession I have included do have Christian Wood on the floor, but when both are off – Wood is questionable tonight with a knee injury – that net rating drops even further (-11.0). Bradley Beal is still out due to health & safety protocols, but I would wait for confirmation that Doncic is available tonight before jumping into this game.

*Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat (-10, 217)

The Hornets are now 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games, and they have failed to surpass 100 points in four of those contests. Charlotte was limited to 1.033 points per possession last night against Portland, and now they face Miami on the second leg of a back-to-back. Steve Clifford also confirmed after their loss that none of the injured trio – LaMelo Ball, Gordon Haywad, Cody Martin – will play tonight against the Heat. Miami’s offense has had its own issues, and tonight Tyler Herro is questionable with an ankle injury which would hamper a unit averaging just 111.4 points per 100 possessions. Unless we get early confirmation on Herro it’s hard to support Miami here. Clifford has done one thing right with Charlotte, and that is instilling his defensive principles, as the Hornets come into this game 13th in defensive efficiency (111.8) and could bottle up a below average Heat offense without Herro on the floor. The market has not moved on the side here, but the total is down to 214 consensus which makes all the sense in the world given the Under is 7-1 in the last eight games for Charlotte.

*Portland Trail Blazers at *New Orleans Pelicans (-7, 225.5)

New Orleans snapped its 0-4 ATS slide with its win over Chicago last night, and tonight its laying a big number against one of the best cover teams in the league. Portland improved to 8-3 SU/8-2-1 ATS on the season with its win in Charlotte last night. One key tonight will be the 3-point line. The Pelicans are third in the league in opponent 3-point shooting (33.4%) and Portland comes in shooting 39.4% on 3-point attempts. However, the biggest factor will be the possessions in which the Trail Blazers play without Damian Lillard. When he is off the floor their offense manages just 107.5 points per 100 possessions compared to the 116.5 per 100 possessions it averages with him on the floor. That will be worth monitoring tonight in-game. We have not seen much movement in the side or total, and I would assume that is due to the scheduling spot for both teams.