Jonathan Von Tobel analyzes the daily NBA betting market.
Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.
All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.
Market Report for Tuesday, March 8th
*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Best Bets
New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5, 231.5)
This game is going to be incredible. New Orleans is coming off a failed comeback attempt against Denver on Sunday night, rallying from a 21-point deficit in the first half to take a double-digit lead of its own only to fall in overtime. The loss dropped the Pelicans to 4-1 SU and ATS since the break, but that new starting lineup continues to deliver highly efficient offense. Now, they must go to Memphis where the Grizzlies are, by their own standards, in a small slump of 3-3 SU and ATS over the last six games. Both teams come in healthy here, so this comes down to the on-court matchups and New Orleans comes in with an ability to deal with all the aspects of Memphis’ game that makes them great. The Grizzlies do so much damage on the offensive glass, leading the league in both offensive rebounding rate (32.6%) and second chance points per game (18.1). However, the Pelicans are one of the best rebounding teams in the league, ranking third in both defensive rebounding rate (74.0%) and overall rebounding rate (51.6%). Their new lineup grabs offensive rebounds at a 39.2% clip as well, which will test the Grizzlies’ own abilities to rebound effectively. New Orleans can also run with Memphis. The Grizzlies rank first in points added per 100 possessions through transition offense (%plussign% 4.1) but the Pelicans rank first in that category defensively (%plussign% 1.5) and are second in overall defensive efficiency in transition (116.3). This change for New Orleans is real and it will be a great test for Memphis tonight. I’ll grab the points with them and continue to ride the wave.
Play: Pelicans (%plussign% 6)
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Best Games
Los Angeles Clippers at *Golden State Warriors (-7, 220.5)
Golden State is on the second leg of a back-to-back, but since the core of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins did not make the trip to Denver bettors should consider this team to be fully rested. Having said that, the Warriors are still not a team that is worth laying a number like this and the market has reacted accordingly. Golden State is now 2-9 SU in its last 11 games and 2-11 ATS in its last 13 contests, showing us that this team has clearly been overvalued by the betting market. Some might be tempted to “fade” Los Angeles after a poor showing against New York on Sunday night, but Ty Lue emptied the bench with eight minutes left in the fourth quarter meaning the Clippers will be ready for tonight. Los Angeles will not have Robert Covington tonight, but this team is till 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine games with the league’s best defensive rating (106.2). This line is as low as Warriors -5 right and that is much closer to what the number should be between these two clubs.
The Others
Brooklyn Nets (-2, 240.5) at Charlotte Hornets
Lost in the noise of Jayson Tatum’s 54-point performance on Sunday was the success the Brooklyn Nets offense had against one of the best defenses in the league. Brooklyn came out and averaged 1.224 points per possession against the league’ best defense. Kevin Durant dropped 37 point on 12-of-21 shooting and showed the league, and bettors, that this offense is going to be great when those two are on the floor together. Now, they face a Charlotte team that has been among some of the most inconsistent defensive teams in the league. It’s no surprise to see the market lay it with Brooklyn in this spot. The Nets are going to be a team to bet on when they play on the road, and we saw that Sunday when they stayed inside 6.5 against Boston.
Phoenix Suns (-7.5, 224.5) at Orlando Magic
Life for Phoenix has been chaotic since returning from the All-Star break, but a visit to Orlando could be a great chance to find some stability. The Suns are 3-3 SU/2-4 ATS since returning from the hiatus, but its hard to get a read on the team given the different results and constantly changing personnel. Devin Booker was initially available but got stuck in COVID protocol. Cameron Johnson, who single-handedly led them to victory on Friday night, is not playing tonight. Their defense has been non-existent at this point, allowing 112.9 points per 100 possessions in those six games. With the rotating door of personnel and a subpar defensive effort lately it’s hard to swallow these many points, even against Orlando which is 8-20-1 ATS at home this season.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-5, 222.5) at Indiana Pacers
Cleveland got a massive win on Sunday over Toronto which solidified their positioning in the Eastern Conference and stemmed the bleeding of a 1-6 slide. Having said that, the Raptors were extremely short-handed and the Cavaliers just lost Jarrett Allen for the foreseeable future with a finger injury. Now down Allen, along with Caris LeVert, this Cleveland team is an enigma from a power rating perspective. The market seems to agree, dropping this number from the open to -3 at most shops.
Best Bets Summary
Pelicans (%plussign% 6)
Season Record: 70-57-1
