NBA Betting System:

The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, December 14, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams playing a 3rdin8+Days game are 68-40 SU & 65-41-2 ATS (61.3%) versus teams playing a 2DaysRest game over the L4 seasons.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-4 vs ATL), OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 vs HOU)

* UNDER the total was 3-0 in Las Vegas for NBA Cup games last year

Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in both games

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority HANDLE backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.

System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with HANDLE groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.

System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY 

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of HANDLE bettors were backing the UNDER in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking OVER’s. When any majority number have favored the UNDER option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.

System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-OKC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for NUMBER OF BETS majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (OVER or UNDER) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and a R.O.I. of +4.8% since January ’23.

System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-MIL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority UNDER bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These UNDER majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.

System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-OKC

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing a 3rdin8+Days game are 68-40 SU & 65-41-2 ATS (61.3%) versus teams playing a 2DaysRest game over the L4 seasons.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-4 vs ATL), OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 vs HOU)

* UNDER the total was 74-45 (62.2%) over the L4 seasons when one team was on 2DaysRest and the opponent was playing a 3rdin8+Days game.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-ATL (o/u at 230), OKC-HOU (o/u at 216)

* UNDER the total was 64-34 (65.3%) since start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4thGamein10+Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rdin8+Days game, in other words two pretty rested teams.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-ATL (o/u at 230), OKC-HOU (o/u at 216)

* UNDER the total was 31-17 (64.6%) since start of last season when both teams in a NBA matchup were in the same 3rdin8+Days game scenario…two rested teams.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-ATL (o/u at 230), OKC-HOU (o/u at 216)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

No qualifying system plays for Saturday.

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

No qualifying system plays for Saturday.

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +5.5 (+0.8)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -4 (+0.5)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +5.5 (+0.4)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -4 (+0.8)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
No matches today. 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-OKC UNDER 216 (-2.3)
2. ATL-MIL UNDER 230 (-0.3)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +5.5 (+0.7)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -4 (+1.0)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-MIL OVER 230 (+3.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-OKC UNDER 216 (-1.7)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

No qualifying system picks today.

Top NBA Cup Trend

* UNDER the total was 3-0 in Las Vegas for NBA Cup last year

Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in both games

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