NBA Championship Odds:
The NBA season is pretty much at the midpoint, as teams are approaching or have already gone over 40 games played for the 2024-25 season. The NBA Championship odds look like what we expected in some ways and not at all like what we expected in others.
Most notably, the Cleveland Cavaliers, who were around 35/1 at the start of the season, were one of four teams lined in single digits prior to a rare setback against the Indiana Pacers on Sunday. As of Monday afternoon, they were 11/1 at DraftKings Sportsbook, with only the Boston Celtics (+250), Oklahoma City Thunder (+265), and New York Knicks (+900) with shorter prices.
So I, the Cleveland native and eternal “Wait ‘Til Next Year” thinker, had to get resident NBA expert Zachary Cohen to tell me why I should or shouldn’t take my hometown Cavaliers to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Adam Burke: 33-5, Zach. THIRTY-THREE AND FIVE. Kenny Atkinson should be -1500 to win Coach of the Year, not -380. This was a good team under J.B. Bickerstaff and now they have a coach who probably won’t fold in the second half like a house of cards built on the shores of Lake Erie on a windy winter day.
They’ve split with Boston already, with the next game on February 4. They beat the Knicks at MSG already. They beat the Thunder and get another crack in OKC on Thursday. I’m missing something, right? What am I missing?
Zachary Cohen: Atkinson is the Coach of the Year. You’re not wrong about that. The only other coach that’s in the discussion is Jamahl Mosley, but it’s really not even close right now. However, the reason Atkinson has been the league’s best coach and the reason I’m hesitant to call this team a legitimate title contender is the same: nothing has changed about this roster from last year to this year.
The offense has been incredible with all of the changes Atkinson has made. The Cavs are first in Adjusted Offensive Rating (118.9), the ball is zipping around and Evan Mobley has made a gigantic Year 4 leap. But I can’t help but think that teams will be able to exploit the two-center lineups with Mobley and Jarrett Allen when everything is under the microscope of a seven-game series. Mobley’s really going to have to be willing and capable of knocking down 3s consistently, and the jumper might be improved but it comes and goes. I’m also not sure I value the Cavaliers’ outrageous depth in the postseason. Atkinson might trust 11 guys to play legitimate regular-season minutes, but everybody outside of Mobley, Allen, Donovan Michell and Darius Garland will look worse in the postseason.
Speaking of Mitchell and Garland, are we sure those guys aren’t going to be hunted relentlessly in the playoffs? Both of them have been working very hard defensively this season, but they have been BBQ chicken in the past.
AB: Maaaaaaybe defense wins championships, but you’re understating just how much better this year’s offense is. They’re first in Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) at .593, more than 20 points better than the next team and well over 30 points better than last season’s Cavs team. In a season where the league-wide 3P Rate has ballooned from 39.5% to 42.3%, the Cavs have gone from 38.6% to 45.2% in terms of percentage of field goal attempts that are 3s.
Atkinson is a modern-day NBA thinker on offense. And they’ve taken smarter shots while not really sacrificing defense. They were sixth in Defensive Rating last season and are ninth this season, but with a better mark of 111.1 compared to 112.7.
Also, Mitchell’s Usage Rate is down a tad (a tad, Lloyd?!) this season. And hopefully he’ll get to the playoffs unscathed after last year’s knee injury.
I can see the case for the Celtics, even though they look like a really high-variance team with the rate of 3-pointers they attempt (over 54%) – and they’re not as good at making them this season.
But, how are the Knicks lined lower than the Cavs for the NBA Championship?
ZC: I can acknowledge the offense has been off-the-charts good this season. But I did mention the depth a little earlier, and Ty Jerome, Georges Niang and Sam Merrill are combining for 14.0 3-point attempts per game. Those are the guys that I’m not sure Cleveland will be able to rely on in the postseason — which pains me to say as a big Jerome fan. Players will be a lot more locked in defensively, so we won’t see as many scouting report mistakes that we see on a nightly basis. And those three players will be torched on the other end of the floor.
That’s why the Mobley 3-point shooting is important. He’s attempting 2.8 shots from deep each night, and he’s shooting 41.6% from 3. He has also been even more trigger-happy lately, attempting 4.4 3s per game in January. I would like to see more of that the rest of the season. While Atkinson is a modern-day thinker, I’m an open-minded thinker. I’ll flip-flop my opinions and stances if I see reasons to. If Mobley’s 3-point shooting becomes second nature, that will significantly raise the ceiling of this team. It’s the spacing that is clunky when he and Allen play together, and that has made this team somewhat easy to cover in the postseason. And I do ultimately think that pairing needs to be split up in order for the Cavs to enter that top tier. I think many in Cleveland would agree with that, no matter how excited they are about this year’s group.
As far as the Knicks go, it’s a little wild Vegas views them in a better light than the Cavs. I think a lot of people believe New York can flip a switch and start defending, as Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby have been awesome perimeter defenders throughout their careers. But the tape isn’t matching up with the names on the roster. Having said that, New York can make some moves at the deadline that would improve the roster. Like making a move for a backup center and picking up an additional scorer off the bench. And the Knicks will be quicker to make a move than the Cavs, who are probably afraid of touching the roster.
AB: Hey, with that Trade Deadline coming that you mentioned (February 6), there will be available players that can help fill some depth needs for the Eastern Conference leader. Of course, every contender could use depth, so I guess we’ll have to wait and see what the Cavs have to offer and who they can get.
I’ll sound too biased if I keep carrying on. So, if not the Cavs or Knicks, is anybody worth a futures flier in the East?
Or, hey, while we’re at it, what about in the West?
ZC: Whenever it has made sense, I’ve been reminding people that I’m very high on the Pacers. Indiana’s slow start wasn’t as publicized as Philadelphia’s, but the team was five games under .500 on December 4th. It was a rough start for a team that made a run to the conference finals last year. But the Pacers have now won 13 of their last 17 games. Since December 5th, which marked the start of that 17-game stretch, Cleaning The Glass has Indiana third in the league in efficiency differential (+9.2). The Pacers are also third in points per 100 possessions (119.3) and fifth in points allowed per 100 possessions (110.1). Rick Carlisle has his guys defending at a high level, and Tyrese Haliburton looks like the player he was at the start of last season. Indiana is now looking like a better team than it was in 2023-24, as Bennedict Mathurin is starting to fit in with the group that made the run in last year’s playoffs. And the Pacers should eventually get Aaron Nesmith back. Indiana has missed him as a 3-and-D presence.
I also wouldn’t hate a future on Orlando. The Magic have done a good job of staying afloat with Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs all dealing with significant injuries this season. Eventually those guys will share the floor again. So, with a top-five defense and an offense that should eventually be a lot better, Orlando is worth a shot if the team can just avoid the Play-In Tournament.
Out West, I’m all over Memphis as a Western Conference contender — and wouldn’t mind a sprinkle on the Grizzlies to win it all. Dunks & Threes has them sixth in both adjusted offensive rating (115.1) and defensive rating (110.2). And this is another team that has had a ton of injuries. Memphis has the ability to stifle any opponent on any given night, and Ja Morant is the type of dynamic on-ball talent that can win you games himself. The Grizzlies are also active in trade talks, so they might be able to find a way to upgrade their rotation.
I’ve also been banging this drum all year, but I don’t think the Timberwolves are worse than they were last year. I know the record suggests something completely different, but they’re still remarkable defensively. And head coach Chris Finch has noted several times that his players are starting to get a little more comfortable playing with Julius Randle, who isn’t an easy guy to fit with. I wouldn’t be surprised if Minnesota is just as tough of an out as it was last year. And perhaps I’m just a sicko, but I think this Timberwolves roster is better equipped to score in a physical half-court playoff setting.
AB: One last question in light of all that to finish up…
The Cavs play the Pacers (Tuesday), Thunder (Thursday), and Timberwolves (Saturday) this week. Let’s say they struggle through those three road games and the futures market takes notice.
*puts homer hat back on*
Is there a price where you’d take a shot on Cleveland?
ZC: I can be talked into a 14-1 or 15-1 ticket. Cleveland’s can absolutely win the title, I’m just in “see it to believe it” mode. But there’s no denying that what they have done this year is impressive, and if they look anything like this in the playoffs then they’re going to be tough to eliminate — especially with an electric fanbase at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. I just see them below the top-tier contenders like Boston and Oklahoma City, so I’m trying to pour a little water on the 33-5 start. This team is very, very good, but I don’t think they’re as good as this.
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