The NBA Finals tip-off on Thursday, and on the surface it seems there will be little drama. For bettors, the betting options are slim. Do you lay a massive price with the favorite? Or perhaps take a longshot play on an unlikely winner in Indiana?
Thankfully, we live in the year 2025 and that means a plethora of betting markets for a series which seems all but decided. After sifting through each of these menus I’ve come away with a few bets that I believe are worth making. This is how I’m attacking the NBA Finals.
Series Result
Oklahoma City is obviously a massive favorite to win the series, but some of the pricing in the market seems to be a deterrent to Thunder money as opposed to an accurate price on the team’s chances of winning the series. Instead of trying to chase the dragon in some of the derivative markets like series spreads I’ll gamble a bit and play the exact outcomes.
This is a series which I believe ends in five games more often than not. Five games in the series is about +230 at multiple shops and worth betting my measure. Indiana is still a very talented team, specifically on offense. At home in the postseason the Pacers are 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS with a +7.6 net rating in non-garbage time. They have averaged 120.2 points per 100 possessions on offense. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see this team in a desperate spot put forth a spirited effort and grab a game in this series.
It should not be forgotten that the Thunder have had their struggles on the road in the playoffs. Oklahoma City is 4-3 SU/0-7 ATS away from home with -6.2 net rating in non-garbage time. The Thunder are averaging only 108.2 points per 100 possessions on the road this postseason. That is the third-lowest offensive rating in the playoffs. They shot 29.6% on 38.6 3-point attempts per game in the first three rounds. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if they lay an egg in Indiana at some point in this series.
With that fear of Oklahoma City dropping a road game I believe a sweep is off the table. Instead, playing the exact amount of games and exact result is the way to go. Five games at +230 and the exact series outcome of Thunder/Thunder/Thunder/Pacers/Thunder is as low as +880 at FanDuel. The latter play is more of gamble and a grasp at a good payout. Playing the series to end in five games is the better overall bet.
Best Bets: Series Exact Games: 5 (+230) / Series Exact Outcome: Thunder/Thunder/Thunder/Pacers/Thunder (+880)
Series Leader: Total Assists
Tyrese Haliburton is a heavy favorite to lead the Finals in total assists, and he is deserving of that status. However, the degree to which he is favored at most shops is too high by my measure.
Breaking news: Oklahoma City is an incredible defensive team. The Thunder not only limit what teams do on a possession-to-possession basis, but they limit the assist opportunities their opponents have. All three of their postseason opponents – the Grizzlies, Nuggets and Timberwolves – saw their assist-to-pass rate drop dramatically in their respective series. Denver went from 10.9% in the regular season to just 7.4% in the conference semifinals. Memphis dropped from 10.3% to 7.3% in the first round. Minnesota – not as effective a passing team as the other two – dropped from a 9.1% mark in the regular season to 7.9% against Oklahoma City. Keep in mind, the last place team in assist-to-pass rate in the regular season still checked in at 8.1% (Philadelphia).
Halburton is a very good passer. His skill raises the floor of this offense, but there is no doubt his assist opportunities will not be as plentiful in this series as they were in the others. That means that his teammates must hit at an even higher rate on assist opportunities, and they must do so against a Thunder defense which has allowed just 1.062 points per possession to postseason opponents. That is unlikely to happen over the course of this series.
So, where do we go in the market if Haliburton is truly mispriced at the top? Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the obvious first choice. Gilgeous-Alexander has 45 fewer assists in the postseason than Haliburton, but he is a very good facilitator. According to Cleaning The Glass, he has assisted on 31.9% of his teammates’ made shots while on the floor in the postseason. Gilgeous-Alexander is more than capable of leading this series in assists and is worth a play at +500 or better.
Jalen Williams is also worth a small play at +6600 or better. Williams is an above-average passer at his position. He assisted on 23.4% of his teammates’ made baskets in the regular season. His overall assist rate has dropped in the postseason (22.1%), but is still in the 87th percentile at his position at that lower number.
It should also be noted that Indiana has been somewhat lucky on defense. The Eastern Conference champion has done a brilliant job on limiting uncontested looks from opponents in the postseason – 14.9 per game – but opponents have shot just 34.7% on such shot attempts overall and 33.5% on wide-open 3-point attempts. Uncontested looks generally come off passes, so if water finds its level in this series the two Thunder stars should be live to upend Haliburton.
Best Bets: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+500) & Jalen Williams (+6600) to lead series in assists
Player Props: Isaiah Hartenstein
Much to my chagrin, there are not many series markets that involve Isaiah Hartenstein, but I did want to note my thoughts on the Thunder center and how I am going to bet his props heading into the series.
Simply put: I do not think Hartenstein has a place in this series.
Oklahoma City does not have to play both of their bigs against a smaller Indiana team which does not rebound the ball very well. Minnesota and Denver were bigger teams which forced Mark Daigneault’s hand to play both Chet Holmgren and Hartenstein together. But, those lineups were not very effective, specifically on offense.
In the postseason Oklahoma City is outscoring opponents by just 1.2 points every 100 possessions with Holmgren and Hartenstein on the floor. Its offensive rating with those lineups is just 106.7 which is abysmal. On the other hand, when Holmgren is the lone big the Thunder average 126.6 points per 100 possessions and they have a +21.7 net rating.
Daigneault will not have to worry about Holmgren being physically dominated, as Myles Turner is a perimeter-oriented center who rarely operates out of the post. He can feel comfortable with Holmgren getting most of the minutes at center, and Oklahoma City’s small-ball lineups should be able to thrive in this series as well. We also saw Daigneault move away from Hartenstein in the last three games of the Minnesota series, as he averaged only 17.2 minutes in the last three games.
This is all to say that I was hoping to play against Hartenstein in some series props in both head-to-head markets but over/under statistical markets. Instead, I’ll be looking to play his unders – such as points and rebounds – until there is a notable adjustment in the market.
