Wednesday’s NBA slate puts Timberwolves-Heat and Warriors-Lakers in the national spotlight on ESPN. Below, I’ll take a quick dive into both matchups, then run through my best bets for Wednesday, October 21, including my favorite sides and totals from the rest of the board.
For my favorite player props, keep an eye on my author page or the Hardwood Handicappers YouTube channel! Also, make sure you watch our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts should be all over the NBA, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET on ESPN
This will be a fascinating game to tip off this doubleheader, but it’s one in which the Heat should feel pretty good about the matchup. LaMelo Ball’s first taste of regular season basketball with the Timberwolves will feature him being defended by Davion Mitchell, who is one of the better point-of-attack options in the league. Miami also happens to have Andrew Wiggins, a rock-solid defensive wing, to toss on Anthony Edwards. That’s not to say that the Heat will completely shut the Timberwolves down. Doing that should be fairly difficult this season. However, I do think Minnesota’s offensive efficiency will take a hit, while I’m not quite sure the same will happen for Miami. Throughout the offseason, I’ve been discussing the Timberwolves like a top-10 offensive team, but I think they’ll become a middle-of-the-pack defensive team. That should mean that Giannis Antetokounmpo will be able to find ways to punish the group. Perhaps we’ll see some open looks for Klay Thompson, who OptaAI likes to finish with 12.71 points and surpass his 10.5-point total.
Chris Finch also happens to be 59-90 straight-up as a road underdog with Minnesota, while Erik Spoelstra is 466-182 as a home favorite with Miami. And while I do love Finch, Spoelstra is the more dangerous coach with extra time to prepare.
I like the Heat to win this game, but I’m playing them on an alternate spread of +7.5 to tie in the other ESPN game. Miami wouldn’t have been a standard play for me this evening, but I like to think outside the box to get involved with some of these primetime games.
PARLAY: Heat Alt +7.5 & Lakers ML (-109 – 1.5 units)
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:00 pm ET on ESPN
I’m not quite as down on the Warriors as most, but that’s because I value what the team has at full strength. Right now, Golden State isn’t close to that. Kristaps Porzingis is currently away from the team with an unidentified illness, Jimmy Butler is recovering from a torn ACL, and Brandin Podziemski is dealing with lower back soreness. All three of those rotation players will be missed, and that’s especially true with Stephen Curry playing through an ankle sprain.
As things stand, it’s just hard to figure out how the Warriors will consistently find quality shots against a burnable Lakers defense. Curry will surely have his opportunities, but JJ Redick is really good about putting together defensive game plans. If all he has to worry about is Curry, putting that plan in place will be fairly simple.
Los Angeles should also be a top-five offensive team in the league this year, so I’m not worried about Luka Doncic and Co. getting what they want against Golden State’s defense. So, while I’m not laying the points with the Lakers, I do like them to win this outright. Plus, if Miami covers the alternate spread in the opening game, we could hit Golden State spread and have a big middle for the second leg of this.
PARLAY: Heat Alt +7.5 & Lakers ML (-109 – 1.5 units)
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Additional NBA Best Bets for Wednesday, October 21
Memphis Grizzlies ML (-115) vs. Utah Jazz
I’m completely in on what Utah has from one through four, as Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson, Lauri Markkanen, and Jaren Jackson Jr. should be outrageously tough to defend. However, with the Jazz having traded Kessler to the Lakers, they lost the only competent rim protector on the roster. Utah will also be without Jusuf Nurkic for a couple of weeks, meaning the team loses a tremendous rebounder and solid playmaking hub. I’m just not sure the Jazz will be able to survive defensively against good teams, and this matchup should be an interesting one. Being small — and borderline soft — isn’t what you want against a frontcourt which features Zach Edey and Cameron Boozer. Also, the Grizzlies backcourt should absolutely cook the defensive pairing of George and Peterson, with Ty Jerome being someone to really keep an eye on.
Brooklyn Nets ML (-102) vs. Charlotte Hornets
This one is pretty straightforward for me. I’m a little higher on Brooklyn than most, as I strongly believe in a frontcourt that features Michael Porter Jr., Julius Randle, and Day’Ron Sharpe. That group has a good bit of toughness, perimeter firepower, and individual shot-making. Also, while the Nets might be facing some questions in the backcourt, the Hornets are currently dealing with injuries to both Kon Knueppel and Coby White. That could make it somewhat tough on Charlotte to beat Brooklyn along the perimeter, and that’s especially true with this being Night 1 of Egor Demin’s breakout campaign. I’ll also note that Jordi Fernandez has always been a fantastic coach, and the Brooklyn tank has been the only thing standing in his way. Well, on the first night of a season in which tanking shouldn’t be as prevalent, we should see a locked-in Nets squad. This group happens to be 12-8 both straight-up and against the spread in home games with lines of +3 to -3 under Fernandez. It also doesn’t hurt that Fernandez has some reliable veterans he can trust off the bench.
