🏈 What Happened to That 14-Point Betting Edge?
Last Wednesday, we highlighted a 14-point disagreement between Steve Makinen’s college football ratings and the betting market.
Steve’s Effective Play-by-Play Ratings made Sam Houston a 12.6-point favorite over Western Kentucky. The market had Sam Houston as a 1.5-point underdog.
We asked: Does tonight’s discrepancy point to an opportunity?
Western Kentucky won 16-3.
I heard from some of you about that one. So did Steve.
Steve went back through the numbers to understand what went wrong.
He found that Sam Houston’s strong early-season performances were still carrying considerable weight in his full-season ratings, even as the Bearkats’ recent results deteriorated. Western Kentucky had been moving in the opposite direction.
So for Week 8, Steve has introduced something new: a second set of projected point spreads designed to better reflect how teams are performing lately.
And the differences can be dramatic. Consider Saturday’s Iowa–Minnesota game:
- Betting line: Iowa -7
- Original Effective Play-by-Play line: Iowa -5.5
- New forecasted line: Iowa -17
Steve emphasizes that the new model is experimental. There’s no historical track record yet to establish whether it’s more accurate.
But now we have two ways to evaluate every game on the Week 8 board — and some fascinating disagreements between them.
>> See Steve Makinen’s Week 8 Ratings and What’s Changed
Sam Houston Gets Another Chance Tonight
In a fitting coincidence, Sam Houston (+2.5) hosts New Mexico State tonight (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2).
This time, Steve’s original and new models are much closer to the betting market, although they lean in opposite directions.
Adam Burke has also handicapped the matchup. He found that Sam Houston’s passing statistics tell a misleading story once you separate its performance against FCS competition from its games against FBS opponents.
Adam sees other important factors in tonight’s matchup, including a scheduling advantage and a significant difference in the teams’ rushing attacks.
>> Adam Burke’s New Mexico State–Sam Houston Best Bet
For the rest of the Week 8 schedule, including picks, power ratings and game previews:
>> College Football Week 8 Betting Hub
Previously: What we wrote in last Wednesday’s VSiN Daily.
🚨 Ohio State’s Quarterback Injury: A Four-Point Adjustment?
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin is out indefinitely with an injury to his throwing arm. And Steve Makinen believes his absence is worth at least four points to the Buckeyes’ power rating.
“I usually like to give it a game until I make a permanent change so we can tell what the new quarterbacks level is,” Steve texted me Tuesday night.
Coach Ryan Day said he is preparing for the possibility that Sayin misses the rest of the regular season and postseason.
The Buckeyes are off this weekend before visiting USC on Halloween. Day has the bye week to evaluate Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair as possible replacements.
At Circa, the Buckeyes’ odds to win the national title are +475, just behind Notre Dame (+450) and ahead of Georgia (+480).
🏆 Survivor Week 7: Toughest Yet?
Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon are out of Circa Survivor, but they’re still doing the homework for everyone who remains.
In their Week 7 breakdown, Gill rules out the Cowboys and Broncos, leaving three possibilities for surviving entrants to evaluate.
Matt Brown, who still has a live entry, calls this the toughest week yet. Easy for him to say when 95 percent of the field has been eliminated.
>> Watch the Week 7 Survivor Analysis
>> Check the Survivor Sweat marketplace for entries available for sale
🏈 Get Ahead on Thursday Night Football
The Patriots visit the Bears tomorrow night, and Zach Cohen has already broken down the matchup, including odds, picks and player props.
>> Zach Cohen’s Patriots–Bears Preview
⚾ World Series: A Fascinating Offensive Matchup
The World Series doesn’t begin until Friday in Milwaukee, but Adam Burke is already digging into Rays–Brewers.
“This is a fascinating offensive series,” Adam writes in his preview.
Adam sees Milwaukee as the stronger team, but there’s an important distinction between picking the winner and finding value at the current series price.
And, somehow, he works the word “schlong” into his analysis. You’ll have to read it to find out how.
>> Adam Burke’s World Series Preview and Best Bets
🏀 NBA Day 2: From Futures to Tonight’s Bets
The NBA season is underway, and the focus shifts from preseason predictions to tonight’s games.
Zach Cohen will have his Best Bets later this morning.
More tools for your NBA handicapping:
Circa and DraftKings Betting Splits
Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Systems
NBA Player Prop Analyzer
Opta AI NBA Prop Projections
📋 Get the NBA Rotation Book for $4.99
Get ready for the NBA season with the DonBest Rotation Book, available for just $4.99.
🏒 NHL: Jonathan Davis’ Latest Picks
Jonathan Davis breaks down Wednesday’s NHL schedule and the betting opportunities he’s watching.
>> JD’s NHL Picks and Analysis
⛳ Golf: Can Wes Find Value in Bermuda?
Port Royal is one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour, but that doesn’t necessarily make it easy.
Wind can be a major factor at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, making course fit and conditions especially important. Wes Reynolds breaks down the field and identifies his preferred betting opportunities.
>> Wes’ Butterfield Bermuda Championship Best Bets
🐎 Wednesday at Keeneland
Daily Racing Form has picks and analysis for Wednesday’s Keeneland card.
>> Wednesday’s Keeneland Picks
🥊 UFC 333: Lou Finocchiaro’s Betting Preview
Lou breaks down Volkanovski vs. Evloev and the UFC 333 card, including odds, predictions and best bets.
