On Wednesday, April 16th, the Chicago Bulls host the Miami Heat in the 9 vs. 10 NBA Play-In Tournament matchup. The winner of this will keep their season alive and fight for the opportunity to face the Cleveland Cavaliers, the top seed in the Eastern Conference, in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs.
Keep reading for Heat vs. Bulls odds and predictions, and make sure you come back to VSiN throughout the course of the NBA Playoffs. We’ll have previews of every single series and daily best bets/player props. We’ll also have betting trends and insights from our analytics guru Steve Makinen. Of course, we’ll also be talking about all of this on our live programming too! It’s a great time to be a VSiN subscriber, so make sure you check out our $59 Summer Special. That’ll give you full access to everything we have to offer until August 1st!
How To Watch Heat vs. Bulls
Where: United Center in Chicago, Illinois
When: Wednesday, April 16th
Channel: ESPN
Heat vs. Bulls Odds
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Sunday, April 13th at 5:30 pm ET)
Moneyline: Bulls -115, Heat -105
Spread: Bulls -1 (-110), Heat +1 (-110)
Total: Over 223.5 (-110), Under 223.5 (-110)
Heat vs. Bulls Prediction
It’s never fun going against an Erik Spoelstra-coached team in a postseason game, and that’s especially true with Miami having just lost to Chicago a couple of days ago. Spoelstra should have his guys ready to play, and the Heat have more experience than this young Bulls team. All of that counts for something. But the Heat are also just 12-16 straight-up in games with lines of +3 to -3 this season, and they’re also 6-14 SU as road underdogs. On top of that, they’re 8-18 SU when facing teams that score at least 117.0 points per game this year. Meanwhile, the “cardiac Bulls” are 10-5 SU in games with lines of +3 to -3 in 2024-25. They’re also 12-5 SU against division opponents this season.
In addition to the trends favoring Chicago, the advanced stats also look good for the Bulls. Season-long Estimated Plus-Minus favors Miami (+0.1) over Chicago (-1.9), but the Bulls have been the better team since the All-Star break. Since then, Chicago is 17-10 with a net rating of +4.8, and Miami is just 12-17 with a net rating of +3.0. Also, since March 1st, the Bulls have a better Efficiency Differential (+4.6 vs. +3.1) at Cleaning The Glass.
When you combine everything above with the fact that the Bulls will be playing in front of a fired-up home crowd, it’s hard not to like Chicago. I also happen to like a lot of the matchups for the Bulls.
While Tyler Herro is a tremendous offensive player, Chicago has more firepower in the backcourt with Josh Giddey and Coby White. Those two played well in the Bulls’ 119-111 win over the Heat on April 9th, and White has some room to improve after going 0 for 5 in that one. Nikola Vucevic also significantly outplayed Bam Adebayo in that game, and that’ll be an interesting matchup to watch here. If Adebayo doesn’t flip the script and win the battle between the bigs, it’s going to be hard for the Heat to win.
Looking at the last meeting between these teams also shows that the Bulls won by eight despite losing the turnover battle. That’s another bad sign for Miami. Chicago should be able to cut down on its 16 turnovers from last game.
It’s also hard not to point out that the Bulls have been a better team than the Heat when it comes to halfcourt offensive efficiency since March 1st. That’s significant because Chicago is also the team that is a bit better when it comes to opening things up, playing fast and trying to run and gun.
Considering everything above, it feels like it would take a spectacular night for the Heat to win, whereas the Bulls should win if these teams just play at their normal level. So, at a very reasonable moneyline price, I don’t see any reason to get cute with this one.
Bet: Bulls ML (-115)
