Player props have become one of the NBA’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value beyond the standard spread or total. Each night, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from points and rebounds to assists and combo lines — using matchup data, recent performance, and betting trends to find edges. Keep reading for the top NBA player prop picks for December 4. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the NBA, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
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Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record.
2025-26 NBA Record: 148-135 (+12.33 units)
Payton Pritchard Over 21.5 Points (-125) vs. Wizards
Celtics at Wizards – 7:00 pm ET
Jaylen Brown is listed as doubtful for the Celtics tonight. With the team facing the Lakers tomorrow night, it’d be surprising to see him out there. That said, there should be some shots to go around for some of Boston’s other players. I like Pritchard to take advantage of that. This Wizards team is a bottom-five group in the league when defending above-the-break 3s, which is a spot on the floor Pritchard loves. Washington is also pretty lousy in transition, plus the team struggles to defend dribble-handoffs. There’s just a lot that the Celtics can do to free up Pritchard for good looks, and the highly-skilled guard should have no trouble creating good shots for himself off the bounce. That’s why I like Pritchard to carry the load as a scorer. He had 18 points against Washington earlier in the year, and that was a game Brown played.
Ace Bailey Over 12.5 Points (+100) vs. Nets
Jazz at Nets – 7:30 pm ET
Bailey comes into this game having played at least 28 minutes in four of the last five contests. He’s earning the trust of head coach Will Hardy, meaning we should see some strong offensive performances in the near future. Bailey has actually scored at least 13 points in seven of the last 10 games, and he has also had at least 15 points in five of the last 10. The rookie is a big, smooth wing with a nice jumper, plus the size and athleticism to be a dangerous finisher at the rim. That’s why he should enjoy this matchup with the Nets.
The Nets have actually been better than expected at defending on-ball players this year. That’s part of Jordi Fernandez being an awesome coach. However, Brooklyn’s wings have been a mess defensively. Brooklyn is a bottom-five defense when looking at spot-up opportunities, transition plays, and shots at the rim. That’s perfect for a player with Bailey’s shot diet.
Micah Peavy Over 6.5 Points (-127) vs. Timberwolves
Timberwolves at Pelicans – 8:00 pm ET
Peavy might not be a well-known player right now, but the rookie has carved out a spot in James Borrego’s rotation. He actually comes into this game after having scored at least seven points in five straight games. He’s also consistently playing at least 20 minutes. Peavy is an active defender that can also do some damage offensively with his energy and ability to drive.
I also love that Peavy is somewhat blowout-proof. Minnesota is a big favorite in this game, so the oddsmakers are expecting a lopsided result. And I’m leaning that way as well, as the Pelicans hung around with the Timberwolves far too long the other night. Minnesota should come in with more focus here. But Peavy was only a second-round pick. He’s not some prized rookie in the New Orleans organization. That said, I’m not sure Borrego will yank Peavy if this is a 20-point game in the fourth quarter. Instead, he might view that as an opportunity to get him some more meaningful reps. So, I can see Peavy hitting this in a normal, close game. I can also see him going Over in garbage time.
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Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the OptaAI Player Props pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Josh Minott Over 7.5 Points (-119) vs. Wizards
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 12.49 points.
Andre Drummond Under 11.5 Rebounds (-114) vs. Warriors
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 7.44 rebounds.
Jusuf Nurkic Under 4.5 Assists (-163) vs. Nets
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him projected for 3.50 assists.
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