Top NBA Player Props Preview for the Conference Finals:
With just four teams remaining in the NBA Playoffs, the board tightens, but there are still plenty of player prop angles to exploit. Both the Western and Eastern Conference Finals open this week with matchups that promise high-level defensive schemes, pace variance, and unique rotational wrinkles. The Thunder and Knicks enter as betting favorites, but both underdogs — the Timberwolves and Pacers — offer value in series and NBA player prop markets.
Let’s break down what bettors should be watching for from a prop perspective in each matchup.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves: Defensive Pressure and Rotational Leverage
Oklahoma City is priced at -330 to beat Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals, but I think the Timberwolves are live underdogs at +265, especially if they lean into their most modern, versatile lineup. A potential X-factor here is subbing in Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo for Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley, a move we saw give Minnesota a +34.6 net rating in 49 minutes of action so far in these playoffs. It gives them more spacing, more defensive switchability, and more tempo—all things that can help keep up with the Thunder, who thrive on chaos.
Oklahoma City’s 101.6 Defensive Rating is by far the best in the playoffs, and their strength is built on forcing turnovers (24.7 points per game off them—the most in the postseason) while allowing the fewest (11.0). That turnover edge, coupled with their league-best 27.2 transition points per game, is where the series can tilt in OKC’s favor. The Wolves average just 9.6 fastbreak points (fewest), and their structured halfcourt sets could be a liability if OKC turns defense into offense.
Because of that, I’m fading Anthony Edwards’ point total (26.5) in Game One. He’s attempted 7.3 shots per game in the restricted area this postseason but has converted just 54.8% of them. Now, he faces a Thunder defense that allows the fewest paint touches per game. Add in a gauntlet of perimeter defenders (most notably Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) and the edge is clearly with OKC, in my opinion.
Instead, there’s value in Naz Reid Over 10.5 points if Gobert is limited or phased out. Reid has averaged 22.5 points and 11.0 rebounds against the Thunder this season and gives Minnesota a floor-spacing big who thrives in this type of up-tempo setting. Jaden McDaniels is another name to watch. He’s averaging 2.1 corner three attempts in the playoffs (most on the team), and OKC has allowed the third-most corner threes per game (11.2 among all playoff teams). At +165 for 2+ made threes, McDaniels is firmly on my radar for Game One.
Donte DiVincenzo Over 8.5 points is another prop to circle. He’s played his way into a more reliable playoff role, and the Thunder’s focus on defending the paint and Edwards could open up perimeter looks for Minnesota’s secondary shooters. If you can find a number on Nickeil Alexander-Walker, his minutes could spike in a fun narrative against cousin SGA, and the shooting volume will likely be there for him off the bench.
For OKC, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the hub, averaging 35.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 6.8 assists in four games against Minnesota this season. But keep an eye on his assist numbers — he’s averaging 6.4 assists on 16.1 potential assists in the playoffs. That discrepancy signals untapped upside, which is music to my ears.
Knicks vs. Pacers: Pace Boost & Concentrated Usage
While the Knicks are -145 favorites to beat the Pacers, I lean toward Indiana at +125. This series is going the distance. Game One will be played at Madison Square Garden, but the projected pace boost should make betting overs on player props lots of fun.
The Pacers rank first in passes per game (337.1), assists (29.7), and points created via assists (76.4) — all signs of an elite ball-movement offense. They also lead all playoff teams in spot-up points per game (33.5), catch-and-shoot scoring (36.4), and three-point percentage (43.7%). The Knicks, by contrast, rank last in opponent shot attempts in the paint (13.3), so expect Indiana to live on the perimeter and in early offense.
Bennedict Mathurin Over 10.5 Points and Obi Toppin Over 7.5 Points stand out as clear Game One values. Both thrive in fast-paced environments and match up well against a Knicks defense that can struggle when forced to rotate outside of its shell. Mathurin averaged 25.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists in four games against the Knicks in the regular season, and this will be a revenge spot for the former Knick Toppin.
On the Knicks side, Karl-Anthony Towns Over 22.5 Points is a target. The Pacers struggle to contest against skilled bigs in space. Towns has torched the Pacers this season, averaging 30.3 points and 12.0 rebounds in the head-to-head matchups. Over 11.5 rebounds also looks strong since he’s seen 18.8 rebounding chances per game this postseason.
Josh Hart triple-double at +1400 is worth a dart throw. He’s playing massive minutes, averaging 10.0 rebounds and 4.7 assists against Indiana this season, and could thrive in an up-tempo game. Hart’s usage and versatility make him a sneaky prop option in Game 1. He had nine triple-doubles in the regular season, so it’s not crazy.
I’m avoiding most Knicks scoring props outside of Towns. Brunson’s 28.5-point line feels right, and there’s little edge in Anunoby (16.5) or Bridges (16.5). On the Indiana side, Tyrese Haliburton’s 9.5 assists prop feels inflated if the Knicks slow the game down at home. He’s creating 15.3 potential assists per game, which is elite, but I don’t see enough cushion for an over unless the pace really spikes.
In total, both series present value spots, especially if you anticipate rotations tightening or evolving. Whether it’s fading Edwards against the NBA’s top defense or riding Toppin and Mathurin off the bench in Pacers-Knicks Game One, the prop market still offers plenty of sharp angles.
Stay tuned for my daily NBA player prop breakdowns for every game!
