Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays (-165, 7)
The Rays (35-19) won last night’s series opener 8-5, cashing as -170 home favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Angels (22-36) start lefty Reid Detmers (1-5, 4.57 ERA) and the Rays trot out righty Drew Rasmussen (4-1, 2.78 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -150 home favorite and Los Angeles a +130 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Rays to earn another victory at home, steaming Tampa Bay up from -150 to -165.
At DraftKings, the Rays are receiving 91% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Smart money has also come down on the Tampa Bay run-line (-1.5 at +140), as the Rays are taking n 78% of spread bets and 98% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
The Rays have betting system and correlative betting value as a non-division favorite in a low total game (7), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Tampa Bay has the superior offense, hitting .262 with a .335 OBP, .391 slug and 254 runs scored compared to Los Angeles hitting .229 with a .313 OBP, .380 slug and 239 runs scored.
The Rays are hitting .261 against lefties (4th best in MLB), while the Angels are hitting .226 against righties (28th).
Tampa Bay is 20-5 at home and 13-1 as a home favorite, both of which are the best records in MLB. Meanwhile, the Angels are 10-20 on the road, the 5th worst road record.
The Rays are 6-2 in Rasmussen’s last eight starts. He is 3-0 with a 2.31 ERA at home.
On the other hand, Los Angeles is 3-8 in Detmers’ 11 starts.
10:05 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-155, 9.5) at Athletics
The Yankees (35-22) took last night’s series opener 8-2, cruising as -145 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Yankees send out lefty Ryan Weathers (2-2, 3.14 ERA) and the Athletics (27-30) go with righty J.T. Ginn (2-3, 3.19 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -145 road favorite and the Athletics a +125 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Yankees to secure another road victory, driving the Bronx Bombers up from -145 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Yankees are receiving 92% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, New York is taking in 90% of moneyline bets and 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road chalk.
Road favorites priced -150 or more coming off a win are 26-12 (68%) with a 7% ROI this season.
The Yankees have the more explosive bats, posting a .441 slug with 288 runs scored compared to the A’s posting a .388 slug with 238 runs scored.
Weathers has posted a 3.04 ERA in four May starts, allowing only 8 earned runs in 23.2 innings pitched. The Yankees are 5-1 in his last six starts. He has a 2.81 ERA on the road compared to 3.27 at home.
On the other hand, Ginn has a 5.21 ERA at home compared to 2.08 on the road.
New York is 18-13 on the road and 24-13 in night games. The Athletics are 10-16 at home and 17-18 in night games.
10:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers (-125, 8.5)
The Dodgers (37-20) won last night’s series opener 4-2, taking care of business as -120 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Phillies (29-28) hand the ball to righty Andrew Painter (1-5, 5.40 ERA) and the Dodgers counter with fellow righty Roki Sasaki (3-3, 4.93 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -120 home favorite and Philadelphia a +100 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Dodgers laying rare short chalk at home, pushing Los Angeles up from -120 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Dodgers are receiving 81% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Los Angeles is taking in 86% of moneyline bets and 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy split in favor of the home chalk.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less, like the Dodgers here, are 59-33 (64%) with a 14% ROI this season. Sweet spot home favorites priced between -125 and -140 who made the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 46-19 (71%) with a 25% ROI since 2025.
When priced as a “cheap” home favorite -150 or less the Dodgers have gone 47-21 (69%) with a 22% ROI since 2022.
The Dodgers have the better bats, hitting .261 with a .345 OBP, .443 slug and 302 runs scored compared to the Phillies hitting .226 with a .294 OBP, .383 slug and 225 runs scored.
Sasaki has pitched better as of late, posting a 3.52 ERA in four May starts.
On the other hand, Painter has posted a 5.54 ERA in six May starts. Philadelphia is just 1-7 in his last eight starts.
