Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Friday, May 9
We’ve reached a pivotal point in both NBA playoff series on Friday’s slate — and that means it’s time to dial in on player prop markets for actionable value. The Cavaliers head to Indiana in an 0-2 hole and are hoping to get a much-needed boost with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and De’Andre Hunter all trending toward playing after participating in Thursday’s shootaround. With their season on the line, expect desperation on Cleveland’s side to define Game 3.
Out West, the Nuggets return home for Game 3 against the Thunder with the series tied 1-1. After Nikola Jokic dominated in Game 1, Oklahoma City responded with a jaw-dropping 149-106 blowout win in Game 2, shutting down the big man and Denver’s offense in every way imaginable. Now it’s Denver’s turn to make adjustments — and I identified the guy I want to target.
Below, I’ve highlighted the top player props for tonight’s action, backed by advanced metrics, usage trends, matchup data and perceived stylistic and coaching strategy changes. As always, you can track all picks in my VSiN results sheet for full transparency. Let’s get into it!
Andrew Nembhard Over 5.5 Assists (+110, BetMGM)
Andrew Nembhard has emerged as a key facilitator for the Pacers in this series, and the numbers suggest his ceiling is sky-high. Despite his assist line rising from 4.5 to 5.5 for Game 3, there’s still strong value on the Over. Through the first two games against Cleveland, Nembhard is averaging 9.5 assists on 15.5 potential assists per game, while also leading Indiana in passes made at 66.5 per contest. He’s tied with Tyrese Haliburton in total touches (84 per game), but where he’s truly separated himself is in frontcourt activity — his 44.5 frontcourt touches per game easily lead the team, with Haliburton second at just 33.5.
This usage has translated to production. In Game 1, Nembhard tallied six assists on 12 potential dimes. In Game 2, he exploded for 13 assists on 19 potential dimes. He’s also averaged over 36 minutes per game in the series, a clear jump from his regular season average of 28.9 minutes, which signals increased trust from Rick Carlisle and more playmaking responsibility when it matters most. He’s also averaging 11 adjusted assists per game in this series, meaning he’s consistently setting up quality looks.
With Garland, Mobley and Hunter all expected back, we should see a more competitive game script — and that likely means more tight half-court possessions, where Nembhard thrives as a decision-maker. His role and output have fully scaled up for the playoffs, and this line still feels too low.
Donovan Mitchell Over 29.5 Points (-110, BetMGM)
Donovan Mitchell has stepped fully into takeover mode for the Cavaliers, and even with this line rising to 29.5 after closing at 27.5 last game, it’s still not high enough. In Game 1 against the Pacers, he scored 33 points on 13-of-30 shooting and followed that up with a massive 48-point performance in Game 2, going 15-of-30 from the field and 17-of-21 from the free throw line. His aggression and workload have been off the charts, posting a 41.8% usage rate in Game 1 and an eye-popping 46.2% usage in Game 2. That’s simply absurd.
He did that while playing without Garland, Mobley and Hunter in Game 2, but even when those guys have been active, his usage has remained comfortably above 30% this season. In short: this is his offense. With the Cavaliers trailing 0-2 and facing a must-win road game, Mitchell is going to come out firing again — it’s the only path Cleveland has to staying competitive. He’s been one of the NBA’s biggest playoff risers in recent memory, topping 30+ points in four of his six postseason games this year. Not only that, but he now ranks sixth all-time in 45-plus point playoff games, trailing only Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Wilt Chamberlain, Allen Iverson and Jerry West.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 10+ 1st Quarter Points (-115, DraftKings)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has quietly become one of the NBA’s most dominant first-quarter scorers, and the value of this prop is obvious. Through the first two games of this series against Denver, SGA has scored 14 points (6-of-8 FG, 2-of-2 FT) and 13 points (4-of-4 FG, 5-of-5 FT) in the opening quarters — playing all 12 minutes in both. That’s not a new trend, either. He’s logged a full 12 minutes in the first quarter of every playoff game and is averaging 11.2 points on 61.0% shooting and 94.4% from the line during the opening frame in the postseason.
This kind of usage and efficiency is rare — and incredibly valuable in this betting market. In the regular season, he averaged 10.1 first-quarter points on 54.0% shooting in 11.5 minutes per first quarter, so this isn’t a playoff anomaly; it’s a continuation of the presumed MVP’s routine dominance. What makes it even more appealing is that he doesn’t need to get hot from deep or rely on secondary playmaking — he gets to his spots early, draws fouls and converts with ruthless consistency.
With the Thunder and Nuggets tied 1-1 and heading into a critical Game 3, expect SGA to come out aggressive and set the tone early once again. As long as he’s playing the entire quarter and getting the same volume of touches, 10+ points is very reachable, barring foul trouble. I think this line should be a couple points higher, so I’ll happily hammer this.
Russell Westbrook Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125, DraftKings)
Russell Westbrook’s usage and versatility make his Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists a strong value play heading into Game 3 against the Thunder. Despite fluctuating minutes, he continues to make an impact whenever he’s on the floor — and the way Oklahoma City is defending Jokic only increases his opportunity. In Game 1, Westbrook tallied 18 points on 7-of-13 shooting with two rebounds on five rebounding chances and two assists on three potential assists in 30 minutes. He followed that with 19 points on 5-of-11 shooting in Game 2, adding a rebound on six chances and five assists on seven potential assists in just 22 minutes. That’s 24 and 25 PRA in back-to-back games against one of the NBA’s top defenses, with his scoring leading the way accompanied by untapped rebounding and assist upside.
Looking back to the final three games of the first-round series against the Clippers, he posted 21 points, one rebound on five chances and one assist on five potential assists in Game 5 (25 minutes), 14 points, 10 rebounds on 14 chances and six assists on 10 potential assists in Game 6 (35 minutes) and 16 points, five rebounds on six chances and five assists on six potential assists in Game 7 (27 minutes). When Westbrook has played 30ish minutes, he’s regularly flirted with or exceeded this number lately — and that’s exactly what should be expected in a competitive Game 3. Oklahoma City’s defensive scheme has been focused on collapsing on Jokic and daring his teammates to beat them. Westbrook has been capitalizing on being an afterthought as a scorer, averaging 5.0 wide open shot attempts per game in the playoffs.
With the Nuggets needing secondary offense and Westbrook consistently getting clean looks, rebounding opportunities and playmaking touches, this 21.5 PRA line remains exploitable. His activity and efficiency across all categories give him multiple paths to clear this number again. I wouldn’t be shocked if he plays 35 minutes in a close game.
Have a great weekend and I’ll be back on Monday to attack another week of prop values!
