Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Monday, June 16
The NBA Finals return to Oklahoma City tied 2-2, with momentum swinging wildly through the first four games of this unpredictable series. We’ve seen it all in this series, which has made for thrilling basketball but a tough landscape for betting props. Still, I’ve dug deep into every available market to uncover value heading into Game Five. With both teams leaning heavily on their benches for energy and impact, some of the most intriguing plays once again come from role players. Let’s dive into my top NBA player props for Game Five. As always, you can track all of my bets here.
Obi Toppin 15+ Alt Points (+300, FanDuel)
Toppin continues to carve out a significant role off the bench, and his Game Four effort—17 points on 7-of-12 shooting—was a perfect example of his ability to swing momentum with energy and efficiency. He’s now hit the 15-point mark in three of his last four games when logging at least 25 minutes, a trend that stretches back to Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. With Finals minute totals of 25, 19, 28, and 29, it’s clear Rick Carlisle trusts him to stay on the floor, especially when Indiana needs pace and versatility. At +300 (25% implied), this is a strong value on a player who’s thriving in his role and has a clear path to volume in a series that continues to demand bench production.
TJ McConnell Over 3.5 Assists (-104, FanDuel)
McConnell has been a spark plug off the bench all series long, averaging 4.3 assists on 8.8 potential assists per game despite playing just 15 to 18 minutes a night. He’s cleared this line in three of four games, and even in Game Four, where he finished with only two assists. He generated 10 potential dimes, with teammates simply missing shots he created. His 42.5% assist rate leads all players in the series, which speaks to how often the ball is in his hands when he’s on the court. Given his consistent role and elite efficiency in short spurts, this number remains too low.
Ben Sheppard Over 2.5 Points (+100, DraftKings)
Sheppard may not play heavy minutes—logging nine, 14, 18, and 12 through the first four games—but he’s quietly hit this line every time, scoring exactly three or four points in each contest. The key trend here is tied to playing time: in road playoff games where he’s logged at least eight minutes, Sheppard is a perfect 7-0 to the over. Expand that to all playoff games with eight or more minutes, and he’s 11-2 to the over on this line. Even in a limited role, his efficiency and floor spacing give him a reliable scoring path, and at even money, this remains a sneaky value play.
Alex Caruso 20+ Points (+1100, DraftKings)
Caruso has been one of the biggest surprises of the series offensively, hitting the 20-point mark twice already, dropping exactly 20 in both Game Two (6-for-11 FG, 4-for-4 FT) and Game Four (7-for-9 FG, 5-for-7 FT). While his calling card is elite perimeter defense, he’s been a steady offensive contributor as well, logging 28, 27, 32, and 30 minutes across the first four games. He’s taken advantage of clean looks and been aggressive when opportunities arise. At +1100 (just 8.3% implied odds), there’s real value here for a player who’s proven he can get hot and stay on the floor.
Chet Holmgren Over 9.5 Rebounds (+100, BetMGM)
Even with Isaiah Hartenstein back in the starting lineup for Game Four, Holmgren remained dominant on the glass, grabbing 15 rebounds on 20 opportunities. Through four games, he’s averaging 9.3 rebounds on 16.3 chances per game, consistently putting himself in position to clean up missed shots. Hartenstein’s presence doesn’t concern me much, as he played just 22 minutes in Game Four and hasn’t consistently eaten into Holmgren’s workload. With his length, positioning, and ability to stay on the floor for extended stretches, Holmgren has a strong path to hit double-digit boards again, especially at even money.
Aaron Wiggins Under 5.5 Points (-130, DraftKings)
While Wiggins played a steady role in the regular season and averaged 12.0 points per game, he’s become a minimal factor in OKC’s playoff rotation. Outside of a surprise 18-point outburst in Game Two, he’s scored just three, zero, and one point in the other three games of the Finals and has now stayed under this number in seven of his last eight games dating back to the Western Conference Finals. With limited usage and a shrinking offensive role, this under remains a strong play heading into Game Five.
I’ll be right here for Game Six when one team has a chance to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy!
