Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Monday, May 12
I’m back after a decent debut week, finishing 6-4 (+1.23 units) with a handful of tight sweats and big cashes. Monday’s two-game NBA slate brings us a pair of pivotal Game Four matchups: the Celtics look to even the series at Madison Square Garden after dropping two of the first three games to the Knicks, while the Timberwolves aim to take full control against a Warriors team that will be desperate to respond at home. I’ve dug into both matchups using advanced stats, potential opportunities, and matchup trends to highlight the top player props worth targeting tonight. Let’s build on the momentum and capitalize on these edges.
Jayson Tatum Under 27.5 Points (-115, DraftKings)
Jayson Tatum has struggled mightily as a scorer in this series, and OG Anunoby is a major reason why. Through three games, Anunoby has matched up with Tatum on 119 defensive possessions and completely shut him down. In those 24 minutes and 53 seconds of direct coverage, Tatum has scored just six total points while shooting 2-of-10 from the field and committing three turnovers. You read that correctly. That level of individual defensive dominance is exactly what the Knicks envisioned when they acquired Anunoby — and it’s playing out exactly to script.
Tatum’s shooting lines in this series have been consistently inefficient: 7-of-23 in Game 1 (23 points), 5-of-19 in Game 2 (13 points), and 8-of-20 in Game Three (22 points). While he’s still contributing in other areas and logging heavy minutes, his scoring efficiency has cratered. The Celtics continue to rely on him to create, but New York’s defense—anchored by Anunoby’s ability to contain without help—has forced him into tough, contested looks all series. Unless something drastically changes, Tatum clearing 28 points looks like a tough ask in this current primary matchup.
OG Anunoby Under 14.5 Points (-105, DraftKings)
OG Anunoby’s Game One scoring outburst looks more and more like an outlier. He dropped 29 points on 20 shots in that series opener, including 20 points in the second half alone and a red-hot 4-for-6 shooting clip from three. But since then, the regression has been sharp and predictable. In Games Two and Three combined, Anunoby has taken just 15 shots and totaled only seven points. The reason? His offensive energy is being fully redirected into his primary role: locking up Tatum, as I described above.
The Knicks have asked Anunoby to expend maximum effort defensively, and it’s paid off — but it’s also come at the cost of his offensive volume. With his focus clearly on limiting Boston’s top scorer, he’s had fewer touches, fewer shot attempts, and far less offensive involvement overall. Historically, this has been a consistent trend — Anunoby has now gone under this 14.5-point line in 27 of 28 career games against the Celtics. That kind of dominance by Boston’s defense against him isn’t a coincidence. This line remains too high for a player tasked with carrying the team’s most important defensive matchup.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds (-125, FanDuel)
Karl-Anthony Towns continues to be a dominant force on the glass in this series, clearing this number in all three games so far — and doing it with authority. He grabbed 13 rebounds on 21 chances in Game One despite battling foul trouble, followed that with 17 boards on 26 chances in Game Two, and added 15 more on 21 chances in Game Three. His activity and physicality have been essential in keeping the Knicks competitive, especially against a Celtics team that lives on second-chance looks and three-point volume.
Even with a minor finger injury on his non-shooting hand, there’s no indication that Towns will be limited for Game Four. New York simply cannot afford to lose the rebounding battle, and that burden falls squarely on KAT. He’s shown the ability to control the glass regardless of foul situation or game script, and this line is still offering value given his consistent workload and high rebounding ceiling. Expect him to push into the 35–40 minute range again in this spot, and if he does, 12-plus boards should follow again.
Rudy Gobert 5+ Alt First Quarter Rebounds (+340, DraftKings)
This alternate first-quarter rebound prop on Rudy Gobert is offering serious value at +340, especially considering how dominant he’s been early in games this series. He’s grabbed five rebounds in just eight minutes in Game One, five in nine minutes in Game Two, and seven in 10 minutes in Game Three, all while setting the tone on the glass from the jump. The Timberwolves have consistently used him to anchor their defense early, and the Warriors simply don’t have a reliable big who can physically match up with his size and length.
Trayce Jackson-Davis got the Game Three start, but whether it’s him, Kevon Looney, Draymond Green, or Quinton Post, none of Golden State’s options can compete with Gobert’s rebounding reach and positioning. Gobert is averaging 11.0 rebounds on 21.0 rebounding chances per game in the series, including 3.3 offensive boards on 8.3 offensive chances — elite numbers across the board. With Minnesota likely sticking to the script and giving him 8-to-10 minutes in the first, this is a smart long-odds play to target with the potential of a quick payout.
