Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Monday, May 26
Happy Memorial Day! Game Three wasn’t just a bounce-back for the Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals, it was a statement. After falling behind 0-2, they came home and dismantled the Thunder 143-101 in one of the most lopsided playoff games in recent memory. Despite that blowout, Oklahoma City still enters Game Four as a 3.5-point road favorite with the total set at 218.5. That tells us the market expects a major response, and I do too.Â
Let’s dive into my favorite player props for Monday, with both coaches likely to tweak their rotations and game plans. As always, you can follow along with all of my tracked picks, which I transparently place on this sheet. Let’s get into it.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 8.5 Points (+100, DraftKings)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is making himself a lot of money this postseason. In a contract year, he’s thriving in a key bench role and has consistently impacted this series on both ends of the floor. In Game One, he logged 28 minutes and scored eight points on 3-of-11 shooting, clearing his 6.5-point line with ease despite the inefficient shooting. In Game Two, he looked even better, dropping 17 points on 5-of-8 from the field in 25 minutes, going over his 6.5-point line easily and arguably looking like Minnesota’s most dynamic player at times. Even in the Game Three blowout, NAW still produced 12 points on 5-of-9 shooting in just 18 minutes of action, surpassing his 8.5-point line.
He’s now cashed his points prop in all three games of the series and owns a 57-37 record to the over on this number this season (including playoffs). His success against Oklahoma City has also stood out. When facing his MVP cousin, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, NAW has averaged 11.6 points in 23.8 minutes per game across his career, including five overs in his last six head-to-head matchups —a stretch in which he’s averaged 15.0 points per contest.
Beyond the stats, there’s a tangible sense of purpose in the way he’s playing. His length and defensive versatility are crucial to Chris Finch’s plan to contain SGA, and that keeps him on the floor. In fact, in 39.1 partial possessions primarily defending his cousin, NAW has allowed him to go just 3-of-8 shooting for eight points! Meanwhile, Mike Conley continues to struggle to impact the game positively in this matchup, which opens the door for NAW to steal more minutes. With plus-money odds on this number, there’s strong value in riding the hot hand again.
Naz Reid Over 6.5 Rebounds (+105, DraftKings)
Naz Reid has been rock-steady on the glass throughout this series, grabbing exactly eight rebounds in all three games so far. He played 28 minutes in both Game One and Game Two and logged 19 minutes in the Game Three blowout, yet still managed to clear this number comfortably each time. What’s even more telling is that he’s averaging 12.3 rebounding chances per game, just one fewer than Rudy Gobert.
The matchup against Oklahoma City favors Reid’s mobility and spacing ability, which has led Coach Finch to lean on him more and more at the expense of Gobert. That trend isn’t new either. Reid dominated the Thunder on the glass during the regular season with rebound totals of 11, 11, 14, and 8 in four matchups. While three of those regular-season outputs were without Gobert active, that makes it seven straight games against Oklahoma City where he’s gone over this 6.5 number, with eight being his lowest total in that span.
At plus-money, this prop offers strong value. Reid continues to play a pivotal role in Minnesota’s frontcourt rotation, especially when OKC goes small or tries to pull Gobert away from the rim. Expect his rebounding impact to remain steady in Game Four.
Chet Holmgren Over 14.5 Points (-125, DraftKings)
The Thunder need more from Chet Holmgren. Game Four feels like the right moment to unleash him. Through the first three games of the series, Holmgren has scored 15, 22, and 10 points while taking 9, 17, and 7 shots in 26, 32, and 21 minutes, respectively. His playing time dipped in the Game Three blowout, but when he’s on the floor, he’s been efficient and selective. That needs to change. Holmgren has to be more aggressive, and I expect he will be in this bounce-back spot.
Coach Daigneault should look to involve Holmgren more in the offense to ease the load on Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. The rookie big man has a clear offensive advantage when matched up against Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, or Julius Randle — whether it’s putting the ball on the floor and attacking off the dribble, or simply rising up over defenders with his length. Once he gets into the paint, his size and touch give him a clear scoring edge.
Holmgren has shown flashes, but the Thunder need him to step up. The Wolves will likely send even more attention toward SGA, so I expect Holmgren to play a bigger offensive role and surpass 14.5 points for the third time in four tries in this series.
Alex Caruso Over 7.5 Points (+100, DraftKings)
If Oklahoma City is going to take a 3-1 series lead, it starts with finding a way to slow down Anthony Edwards, who torched them for 30 points on 12-of-17 shooting in Game Three. That likely means a heavier dose of Alex Caruso in Game Four. After logging 22 and 24 minutes in the first two games—and scoring nine points in each— Caruso saw just 10 minutes in the blowout loss and finished with three points. But he remains one of OKC’s most important defenders and should be back in the 20-to-25 minute range in a more competitive Game Four.
Caruso’s defensive value can’t be overstated. He’s held Edwards to just five points on 1-of-3 shooting (and 3-of-4 from the line) across 14.6 partial possessions in this series. While he’s also taken on tougher matchups like Naz Reid and Julius Randle due to the Thunder’s switch-heavy scheme, his ability to battle physically with bigger players keeps him on the floor. I expect him to spend some more time checking Edwards in this contest, too.
When he’s out there, the scoring usually follows. He’s cleared this 7.5-point line in nine of 11 games in which he’s played 20 or more minutes, including six in a row. With plus-money odds and an expected bump in minutes, this is a sharp buy-low opportunity on a glue guy who will be essential if the Thunder are going to contain Edwards and take a 3-1 lead.
Good luck tonight, folks! I’ll be back tomorrow with my prop breakdown for Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals.
