Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Saturday, May 31
The New York Knicks didn’t just survive Game Five — they sent a message. With their season on the line, they dominated the Pacers 111-94 at Madison Square Garden, forcing a pivotal Game Six back in Indiana. Now, the Pacers return home as four-point favorites, with the total sitting at 218 as of this writing.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Will Indiana finally close the door? Or can Jalen Brunson and the banged-up Knicks drag this thing to seven?
I’ve broken down the film, analyzed the matchups and locked in several prop angles I love for tonight’s showdown. Below are my top player prop picks for Game Six — all tracked transparently. Let’s cash.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds (-112, FanDuel)
Despite entering Game Five with a questionable tag due to a knee contusion, Karl-Anthony Towns showed zero signs of being limited, posting 24 points on 10-of-20 shooting and grabbing 13 rebounds for a 37 PRA total. That marked the fourth time in five games this series that he’s gone over this 33.5 line, and the consistency has been hard to ignore.
Towns is averaging 25.4 points and 11.8 rebounds per game in the Eastern Conference Finals while shooting an efficient 51.8% from the field and 42.3% from deep. He’s seeing 20.0 rebounding chances per game and taking advantage of Indiana’s lack of physicality in the paint. No one on the Pacers roster has shown they can contain him when he attacks the basket, and that aggressiveness has steadily increased.
He’s averaged 8.2 drives per game in the series, turning those into 10.2 points per contest. That’s well above his regular-season average of 7.5 points per game off drives. Over the last two games, he’s upped that to 10.0 drives per game for 11.0 points. That spike in downhill aggression is the difference-maker here.
The usage is consistent, the matchup is favorable, and the knee is clearly not an issue. As long as Towns keeps attacking and crashing the glass like this, he should clear this number again in Game Six.
Jalen Brunson Over 30.5 Points (-120, BetMGM)
Jalen Brunson has shown time and time again that he thrives in high-pressure moments — and this Game Six elimination spot is no exception. He’s cleared this 30.5-point mark in four of five games in this series, with point totals of 43, 36, 23, 31 and 32. He’s shooting 50.0% from the field overall (55-of-110) and has been nearly automatic from the free-throw line, going 42-for-45 (93.3%) through five games.
His usage rate in this series sits at an elite 35.9%, and it’s only likely to remain constant or rise with New York’s season on the line. When the Knicks need a bucket, Brunson is the guy, and the numbers back it up. In four elimination games with the Knicks, he’s scored 32, 17, 41 and 38 points, going over this line in three of those four.
The pace, shot volume and trust are all there. Brunson is going to play nearly the entire game, dominate touches and take 20+ shots, with plenty of trips to the foul line mixed in. Given his playoff scoring resume and the way he’s attacked this Pacers defense, I’m backing him again to deliver when it matters most.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 Assists (-130, DraftKings)
Tyrese Haliburton has cleared this number in three of five games in the series, posting assist totals of 11, 11, seven, 15, and six. Even in the two games where he came up short, the potential was clearly there, with 13 and 10 potential assists in Games Three and Five, respectively. In his best games, he’s racked up 20 and 24 potential dimes, showing he still has plenty of upside when teammates are converting.
The volume and opportunity continue to be elite. Haliburton is averaging 75.8 passes made per game in this series, more than double the next closest Pacer (Andrew Nembhard at 37.2). He’s the engine of the offense, initiating nearly every halfcourt set and pushing in transition when possible. Even in Game Five’s disappointing assist output, his touch count and facilitation role didn’t change. Shots just didn’t fall, and the entire offense was in a funk.
With the series shifting back home and Indiana looking to close things out, I expect Haliburton to be aggressive as a playmaker early and often. Given his usage, pass volume and track record in this spot, this number still feels too low. I’m buying the bounce-back.
