Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Sunday, June 22
Heading into the NBA Finals, Rick Carlisle and Mark Daigneault were already considered two of the sharpest minds in basketball, and this series has only cemented that. From constant schematic shifts to surprise rotation tweaks, these Finals have been a chess match, and while that’s made for compelling basketball, it’s made player prop betting an unpredictable grind. Every game has brought a new wrinkle, and if you’ve felt like you’re reacting to smoke signals instead of trends, you’re not alone. Heck, this is what I’ve made a living doing over the past three years, and I’ve gotten crushed!
But with six games of data, adjustments, and outcomes in the rearview, we finally have a complete picture heading into Game Seven. The Thunder are 7.5-point favorites over the Pacers, with a 214.5 total on DraftKings at the time of this writing. I dug deep into matchup history, minute patterns, and coaching adjustments to pinpoint where the value lies for this final showdown. Let’s close the season with some wins—and as always, you can track all past picks on my sheet here.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Made Threes (+105, Caesars)
In Game Six, Indiana surprisingly disrupted Oklahoma City’s offensive rhythm by clogging the paint, crowding driving lanes, and denying high ball screens—effectively neutralizing SGA’s ability to take over as a driver. But we’re talking about the league’s most prolific driver for five years running and newly crowned MVP. He’s not going to abandon what got him here, but he is going to adjust.
With the Pacers throwing extra bodies inside, perimeter opportunities should open up, especially for SGA, who hasn’t hit more than one triple in any Finals game since going 3-for-6 in Game One. He’s shooting just 29.7% from deep in the playoffs, well below his 37.5% regular-season clip, suggesting positive regression is overdue. Given the urgency of a Game Seven and SGA’s proven ability to rise to the moment, I expect him to take—and make—more open looks from beyond the arc. He’s 50-46 to the over on this number across all games this season, and the plus-money price only sweetens the value.
Jalen Williams Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-130, DraftKings)
Williams has cleared this line in four of the six games in this series and continues to impact both the glass and playmaking roles. He’s averaged 5.2 rebounds on 9.7 chances and 3.7 assists on 7.2 potential assists per game in the Finals—showing consistent opportunity in both areas. He’s also gone over this combo line in 15 of 22 playoff games overall, underscoring his well-rounded contributions. As one of OKC’s most trusted creators outside of SGA, Williams should remain heavily involved in a high-leverage Game Seven environment where minutes and usage will be at their peak. Let’s not overthink this one.
Chet Holmgren Under 15.5 Points (-115, DraftKings)
Holmgren has struggled mightily on the game’s biggest stage. Since the NBA-ABA merger, he owns the lowest field goal percentage (35.3%) of any center with at least 50 attempts in the Finals. Ouch. He’s gone over this line just once in the series—his 20-point performance in Game Two—and has averaged only 4.0 made field goals on 11.3 attempts across the six games. In the five games he stayed under, he posted point totals of six, 15, 14, nine, and four.
With his confidence clearly shaken and offensive efficiency continuing to plummet, it’s hard to trust him in a Game Seven environment where every possession matters. He’s gone under this number in 15 of 22 playoff games overall, and there’s little reason to expect a breakout now against an Indiana defense that’s keyed in on limiting his touches and forcing tough looks. It’s odd to think of him as an afterthought within OKC’s offense, but that’s exactly what he’s been in this series.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 22.5 Points + Assists (-112, FanDuel)
Note to self: never trust another NBA injury report. Despite a strained calf that typically sidelines players for at least a week, Haliburton looked surprisingly fresh in Game Six, putting up 14 points and five assists in just 23 minutes. With extra time to rest before the biggest game of his life, there’s no reason to doubt his impact in Game Seven.
The Pacers’ offense still runs entirely through him. He’s averaging 6.8 assists on 13.3 potential dimes and 78.2 made passes per game in the Finals—nearly double the next-closest teammate in every category. He’s cleared this combo line in 15 of 22 playoff games, and with Indiana playing as +7.5 underdogs, expect Haliburton’s usage to be sky-high as they chase history. Add in the chip on his shoulder—after being voted the league’s most overrated player by his peers—and this feels like a perfect spot to ride with the Pacers’ leader one more time.
T.J. McConnell Over 13.5 Points + Assists (-120, DraftKings)
McConnell has been a revelation off the bench for Indiana in this series, consistently outplaying expectations with his energy, efficiency and shot-making. He’s cleared this line in four of the last five games, posting combined point+assist totals of 18, 22, 10, 15, and 17 from most recent to least.
He’s shooting a scorching 53.7% from the field in the Finals, averaging 4.8 made field goals on 9.0 attempts per game. Add in 4.5 assists on 9.0 potential dimes across just 19.0 minutes per game, and you’re looking at one of the most efficient per-minute producers in the series. McConnell has also shown he can cash this prop on points alone, which makes the combo line even more appealing.
He recently became the first bench player in NBA Finals history to record 60+ points, 25+ assists, and 15+ rebounds in a series, underscoring his all-around impact. He’s 51-44 to the over on this combo line this season, and the door remains open for another high-usage, high-output performance in Game Seven.
Obi Toppin Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-120, FanDuel)
Toppin has quietly become one of Indiana’s most reliable postseason contributors—and he’s stepped up big in the Finals. He’s gone over this combo line in four of the six games, including each of the last three: 17 points and seven rebounds in Game Four, 12 and four in Game Five, and 20 and six in Game Six. His offensive efficiency has been excellent. He’s shooting 48.3% from the field and 39.4% from three in the series, and he’s brought real energy off the bench.
Toppin has also averaged 5.5 rebounds on 9.0 chances per game, suggesting there’s still some upside on the glass. He’s cleared this mark in six of his last eight overall and is in rare Finals company: the only bench players in NBA history with 70+ points, 30+ rebounds, and 12+ threes in a Finals are Robert Horry—and Obi Toppin. Given his expanded role and confidence, there’s strong value on this number again in Game Seven.
Well, that’s it, folks. Best of luck in Game Seven, and I hope I’ve led you to lots of wins throughout this playoff run! It’s been an honor!
