Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Sunday, June 8
Game One of the NBA Finals ended with some beautiful chaos. The Pacers led for just 0.3 seconds—yet they walked away with a 1-0 series lead thanks to Tyrese Haliburton’s miraculous game-winner, capping off a 111-110 stunner. Despite coughing up the ball 24 times to Oklahoma City’s six, Indiana pulled off one of the most improbable comebacks in Finals history. Teams were 0-182 when trailing by nine or more in the final three minutes of an NBA Finals game… until Thursday night.
Still, oddsmakers haven’t flinched: OKC is a massive -300 favorite to win the series and enters Game Two as an 11-point home favorite. We learned a ton from Game One—about rotations, matchups and game scripts, and I’ll be applying all of that to my favorite player prop bets. As always, you can track all of my picks here. Let’s get into it.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 Assists (-114, FanDuel)
Shai finished Game 1 with 38 points on 14-of-30 shooting, including 3-of-6 from three and also went 7-of-8 from the line. He drove to the basket 27 times—far above his season average of 20.6—and went 8-for-17 on those drives for 20 points. But here’s the catch: he didn’t record a single assist off those drives. In fact, he ended the game with just three assists on 11 potential assists, despite dominating the ball throughout. That’s untapped upside that I want to exploit here. I don’t think he’s going to take 30 shots again, especially after OKC lost despite that scoring outburst.
The most logical adjustment for Indiana head coach Rick Carlisle is to throw more help at SGA, clog driving lanes, and dare others to beat them—particularly Lu Dort, who isn’t likely to go 5-for-9 from deep again. In both regular-season meetings vs. the Pacers, Shai tallied exactly eight assists on an average of 12.5 potential helpers. He also went over this 6.5 mark in four of five games against Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals, only falling short once with six. Given how often he’s on the ball and how much attention he’ll draw in Game Two, I love the setup for him to distribute more effectively this time around, particularly to Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein at or above the rim.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125, DraftKings)
The volume was there in Game One, even if the stat line didn’t fully reflect it. Haliburton still got over this number when he posted 14 points on 6-of-13 shooting, pulled down 10 rebounds on 13 chances, and dished out six assists on 15 potential dimes. He was active in every phase of the gam, and just a few made shots from teammates away from flirting with a triple-double, which is priced at +2500 for Game Two, by the way. (We already saw him hit a triple-double against the Knicks last round—dropping 32 points, 12 boards and 15 assists in Game Four.)
Beyond the numbers, Haliburton has arguably been the most clutch player in NBA history this season and continues to rise in big moments. Given the usage, opportunity, and his ability to stuff the box score in all three categories, it’s worth definite consideration at this price. He can get over this mark in points alone if his shot is falling, and it’s worth noting that this was as high as 36.5 in the Eastern Conference Finals. I love the buy-low spot that we’re getting here based on the difficult matchup. He’s hit this in 13 of 16 tries in the playoffs, with the only exceptions being two blowouts and a 29 PRA effort.
Obi Toppin Over 13.5 Points + Rebounds (-120, Caesars)
Toppin delivered exactly what I projected in Game One—25 minutes of impactful play—and made the most of them, finishing with 17 points on 6-of-9 shooting and five rebounds on 12 rebounding chances. He’s simply a better athletic and pace-fitting matchup against OKC than Myles Turner, and if the Pacers want to continue running in transition and playing small, Toppin is the guy Coach Carlisle will likely trust again.
Both teams interestingly closed Game One with small-ball looks, and Toppin operated as a de facto center during key stretches of the game. Despite this line opening at just 10.5 PRA last game, I still think 13.5 is too low for the role he’s carving out. With his energy, finishing ability and increased run in up-tempo lineups, he’s in a great spot to hit this again. Remember, he finished the last series against the Knicks with 15 (11 points, four rebounds) and 24 (18 points, six rebounds) points + rebounds, so he should have a lot of confidence and a secure role once again in Game Two.
Alex Caruso Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds (-105, DraftKings)
Caruso finished Game One with 11 points on 3-of-8 shooting and also went 4-of-5 from the free throw line. The vet added three rebounds on eight rebounding chances, too. His scoring was steady, and his looks were quality ones, but the real reason to buy into this line again is the role. Caruso’s going to be on the floor a ton—he’s too valuable defensively to come off in key moments, especially after logging critical stops throughout this playoff run.
Oklahoma City brought him in for exactly this: to be a calming veteran force in big games. He’s taken on everyone from Nikola Jokic to Anthony Edwards and now gets the challenge of containing Indiana’s most dynamic offensive players. That defensive impact alone will keep his minutes secure, and coming off a gutting Game One loss, the Thunder will need his poise and physicality more than ever. He played a crucial role despite the loss. Given his 28 minutes of floor time and active rebounding presence, this 12.5 line still feels a touch too low for someone likely to flirt with 30+ minutes again in a crucial Game Two. He’s gone over this number in 12 of 17 (70.6%) playoff games.
Isaiah Hartenstein Double-Double (+600, DraftKings)
Hartenstein quietly delivered nine points and nine rebounds in just 17 minutes off the bench in Game One, leading the Thunder with 12 rebounding chances despite the limited run. That kind of instant impact should earn him more minutes in Game Two, especially after Indiana dominated the glass 56-39 and pulled down 13 offensive rebounds, which led to 12 second-chance points.
Hartenstein has been one of the most efficient bigs in the playoffs, averaging 9.2 points and 7.9 boards in 23.5 minutes per game while shooting 62.1% and logging 15.8 rebounding chances per contest. He’s also one of the best screeners in the league—something that could earn him extended floor time in halfcourt sets as OKC looks to improve. Despite having just two double-doubles in the postseason after a career-high 28 in the regular season, this is a great buy-low spot based on role, efficiency, and a likely Game Two adjustment by Mark Daigneault to match Indiana’s physicality inside. I love his double-double prop at this price tag.
I’ll be back for Game Three. Let’s hope we get another thrilling game and, most importantly, some more winners to celebrate!
