Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Thursday, June 5
The 2025 NBA Finals tip off Thursday night, and history suggests it could be a one-sided affair—at least in Game One. Over the last 20 seasons, underdogs in the opener of the Finals have gone just 2-18 straight up and 3-17 against the spread, including a dismal 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS record when catching five or more points. The Oklahoma City Thunder are laying 9.5 against the Indiana Pacers, marking the second-largest Game One spread since 2001.
That line is justified. OKC has been historically dominant this season, entering the Finals with an 80-17 overall record and a +12.9 average scoring margin—the best in NBA history. They’ve already swept the regular-season series against Indiana and opened as -700 favorites to win the title at DraftKings. With such a strong mismatch on paper and a potential blowout looming, full-game props for both Thunder and Pacers starters come with significant downside risk due to reduced fourth-quarter run. That’s why I’m shifting focus to second-unit players who are more insulated from game script volatility and stand to benefit if the score gets out of hand.
The total for Game One is also worth noting. Soaring right around 230.5, it’s the second-highest Over/Under for a Finals game in the modern era. If this one turns into a high-paced, up-tempo contest with extended garbage time, bench players on both sides should see steady and even increased minutes. Both coaches—Mark Daigneault for OKC and Rick Carlisle for Indiana—have relied on deep rotations throughout the playoffs, and that trend is expected to continue here.
In fact, this strategy already paid off for us during the Conference Finals, where Overs hit on bench contributors like Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace. Oklahoma City’s elite defense has smothered opposing starters, allowing just 67.1 points per game on 42.3% shooting and only 13.2 assists per game—all postseason lows. Their ability to eliminate primary scoring options while forcing 18.0 turnovers per game and allowing just 9.3 fast break points has made life miserable for opposing starting units.
That could spell trouble for Indiana’s top guys. Tyrese Haliburton has thrived as a distributor this postseason, but OKC allows the fewest assists to starters. Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner will also have to contend with OKC’s athleticism and defensive versatility in the half-court. Given that context, the most actionable edges in Game One lie in the prop markets, particularly with role players who’ll get their minutes regardless of how lopsided this opener turns out to be. Let’s get into the breakdown.
Cason Wallace Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-108, FanDuel)
Wallace is exactly the type of player I’m targeting in Game One—reliable bench minutes, a versatile role and undervalued lines. His PRA prop sits at just 12.5, despite the fact he has cleared that number in six of his last nine games and logged 24-plus minutes in four of five Western Conference Finals matchups against the Timberwolves. With the highest Net Rating (+21.6) of any player in the playoffs and the best individual Defensive Rating—even slightly edging out Alex Caruso—Wallace has quietly become one of the most impactful two-way pieces in OKC’s rotation.
What sets Wallace apart is his ability to stay on the floor in any game script. He’s one of the fastest-paced players on the team, a critical edge against Indiana’s up-tempo offense. His defensive motor should earn him key minutes on Tyrese Haliburton. He already proved his worth against elite guards, holding Jamal Murray to just 40.7% shooting in their first-round matchup minutes, nearly identical to what All-Defensive teammate Lu Dort allowed, while providing far more offensive value than Dort on the other end.
Indiana has allowed the third-most bench points per game this postseason (39.4), and their slight drop-off against second units has been understandable since they’ve crushed starting fives. In a game with blowout potential and a high total, Wallace is a smart bet to eclipse this modest 12.5 PRA line through sheer volume and versatility.
Alex Caruso Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-108, FanDuel)
Alex Caruso enters the NBA Finals as the only Thunder player with championship experience, and his veteran presence is expected to be a critical piece in Oklahoma City’s game plan. With blowout risk looming in Game One, Caruso’s stable role as a high-leverage defender and offensive contributor off the bench makes him a strong target in the prop market, especially with his PRA line sitting at just 14.5.
Caruso has averaged 3.3 deflections and 1.8 steals in just 22.5 minutes per game this postseason—both marks lead all players remaining in the Finals. A two-time All-Defensive selection, he’s been tasked with guarding everyone from Nikola Jokic to Karl-Anthony Towns, and he’ll likely spend plenty of time on Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner in this series. Given Indiana’s versatile frontcourt and Caruso’s elite defensive flexibility, expect him to log a healthy minute load from the jump.
But his offensive value is quietly just as important. Caruso is shooting a blistering 41.5% from three on 65 postseason attempts, the best mark on the team. While OKC has struggled from deep as a unit, Caruso’s knockdown shooting and off-ball cutting have helped balance the offense. Outside of Isaiah Joe, who isn’t a stable rotational player, no other Thunder player is shooting above 34% from beyond the arc in the playoffs.
Caruso has cleared this 14.5 PRA mark in four of his last six games and is trending upward in both role and production as the stakes get higher. Caruso’s ability to fill up the box score across multiple categories makes this one of the sharpest Game One overs on the board, in my opinion.
Obi Toppin Over 10.5 Points + Rebounds (-130, DraftKings)
Obi Toppin’s energy and athleticism off the bench make him an ideal prop target in Game One. The Thunder have allowed the third-most shot attempts and sixth-most points per game to bench players this postseason. That sets up well for Toppin, who’s carved out a consistent role in Indiana’s playoff run.
Toppin averaged 9.0 points and 4.7 rebounds in just 19.0 minutes per game against the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals, hitting this combined number in four of six games. He also posted 8.8 points and 3.3 boards per game in the Pacers’ second-round win over Cleveland, continuing his efficient production in limited minutes. He ended the Knicks series on a high note, delivering 11 points and four rebounds in Game Five and 18 and six in Game Six. In his most recent regular season outing against OKC, Toppin put up 12 points and three rebounds in 22 minutes, right in line with what we need here.
With the Thunder’s mix of frontcourt size, athleticism and length—Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Isaiah Hartenstein—Toppin’s role becomes even more vital. If Indiana wants to keep up in transition, Toppin is a better fit than Myles Turner. In a game with blowout potential and a projected fast pace, I expect Toppin to get at least his usual 18-to-22 minutes and enough opportunities to clear this modest 10.5 points + rebounds line.
Bennedict Mathurin Over 7.5 Points (-106, FanDuel)
When it comes to bench scoring upside, no one in this series comes close to Bennedict Mathurin. The Pacers’ sixth man has the explosiveness to break open a game in limited minutes, and he’s proven it throughout the playoffs. He’s gone over this 7.5-point line in nine of 15 playoff games, but more importantly, he’s 9-for-12 to the over when logging double-digit minutes. Three of the six total unders came in games where he played nine, seven and one minute (the latter due to an ejection).
Mathurin has consistently delivered volume scoring off the bench: 20 points in just 12 minutes in Game Four vs. the Knicks, 23 points in 25 minutes in Game Five, and 19-plus points in two of the first three games vs. Cleveland. He posted 13, 14, and nine points in the Bucks series—all in limited minutes—and in his lone regular-season meeting with the Thunder, he dropped 18 points on 5-of-13 shooting in 39 minutes.
With Indiana likely trailing in this series opener and searching for offense outside of Haliburton and Siakam, Mathurin’s instant-offense skill set should be prioritized. He’s the top Pacers reserve who can create his own shot and stretch the floor, which will be crucial against a disciplined Thunder defense that forces teams into secondary options. If Mathurin plays 15-to-20 minutes, he has the proven ability to double this total, making this one of the strongest low-line scoring overs on the board. If you’re looking for a Game One ladder opportunity, this point total is the best option.
Ben Sheppard Over 0.5 Made Threes (-118, BetMGM)
Want some sneaky value? Ben Sheppard to hit at least one three-pointer in Game One stands out. Despite OKC’s elite defense, the Thunder have shown some leakage on the perimeter, particularly in the corners, allowing 12.4 corner three attempts per game in the playoffs, the second-most of any team. While opponents are hitting just 31.2% of those shots, the volume is what matters most, especially when facing a Pacers team that’s been lethal from those spots, shooting a playoff-best 46.9% on corner threes.
Sheppard has quietly carved out a role as a floor-spacer, averaging 1.2 corner three attempts per game this postseason. That volume jumped in two regular-season games against Oklahoma City, where he averaged 3.0 corner attempts and knocked down three total threes, going 1-for-2 and 2-for-6 from deep while playing 22 minutes in both contests. With blowout potential in play and Coach Carlisle likely to lean on his depth, Sheppard should see meaningful run.
Given how much defensive attention Indiana’s creators like Haliburton and Siakam will draw, Sheppard is likely to be left open for catch-and-shoot opportunities. All he needs is one make to cash this—and the matchup and game script suggest he’ll get the opportunity, especially if Carlisle decides to assign him as a defender against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander like he did against Jalen Brunson at times last series.
Good luck in Game One, and I’ll be back here to break down Game Two!
