Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Thursday, May 15
Only one game is on the NBA slate tonight, but it’s a big one: the Denver Nuggets host the Oklahoma City Thunder in a must-win Game 6, with OKC holding a 3-2 series lead. Despite the limited action, there’s still plenty of value in the player prop market — and I’ve identified three actionable edges worth targeting.
Last night, I racked up 6.35 units and went 6-2 on my Celtics-Knicks Game 5 picks and came just one Payton Pritchard made 3 and two Al Horford assists away from a perfect night. As always, I transparently share my plays on this pick sheet. Let’s break down the best bets for Thursday’s elimination showdown.
Michael Porter Jr. Under 9.5 Points (-130, BetMGM)
This line has not fully adjusted to reality — and the reality is that Michael Porter Jr. is nowhere near 100%. He’s playing through a significant sprained left shoulder that reportedly needs surgery — surgery he’s declined in order to stay on the floor during the playoffs. The problem is that he’s barely functioning offensively and has become a liability on both ends of the court.
Porter is shooting just 14% over his last two games (1-for-7 in each), hasn’t come close on his 3-point attempts, and is under this 9.5-point line in four of the five games in this series. The lone exception was Game 3, where he briefly found a rhythm and went 7-of-10 from the floor for 21 points. Outside of that anomaly, he’s looked physically limited and lacking confidence.
For the series, Porter is averaging 7.2 points on 28.6% shooting from the field and just 25.9% from deep, far below his regular season marks of 18.2 PPG. The shooting splits tell the full story — he’s hitting just 16.7% of “open” (defender 4-to-6 feet away) looks and 18.2% of “wide-open” (defender 6-plus feet away) looks this series. That’s a staggering drop-off from his 42.6% and 40.7% clips on those same shots during the regular season, pointing clearly to how much his shoulder is affecting him.
Even if Porter starts, there’s a strong chance head coach David Adelman turns to other options like Peyton Watson or Julian Strawther if Porter struggles early. With Denver’s season on the line, minutes and rotations will be dictated by effectiveness — and right now, Porter just isn’t helping the team. He’s admitted as much in recent interviews. Given the injury, the poor production, the shooting data, and the risk of a reduced role in a must-win game, I’m backing the Under with confidence here.
Jamal Murray Over 21.5 Points (-105, DraftKings)
There are a few players in the league with a real track record of elevating their game in elimination scenarios — and Jamal Murray is certainly on that list. In 11 career elimination games, Murray has averaged a stellar 27.8 points, hitting 49.4% from the field, 41.1% from 3, and playing a heavy 40.7 minutes per game. That stretch includes three monster outings of 40, 42, and 50 points — the kind of playoff legacy that earned him the “playoff riser” reputation in the first place.
He’s gone over this 21.5-point line in two of his last three games and just poured in 28 points on 10-of-27 shooting in Game 5. While the efficiency wasn’t great, the volume was there — especially with MPJ struggling mightily. With Porter clearly limited and Jokic facing double and triple-teams, the Nuggets need Murray to fill the scoring column, particularly on the perimeter and in transition.
This is a moment tailor-made for a guy like Murray — former champion, proven playoff riser and vocal team leader. He even went as far as to guarantee a win heading into this do-or-die Game 6. That tells you the mentality he’s bringing, and if the volume holds (20+ shot attempts again), this number is too low for his ceiling. With everything on the line and Denver playing at home, I’m backing Murray to rise to the occasion once again.
Nikola Jokic Over 4.5 Turnovers (+114, DraftKings)
Nikola Jokic just dropped 44 points in Game 5 — but don’t expect the Thunder to let him play iso ball in Game 6. This elite OKC defense thrives on disrupting offensive flow, and all signs point to them swarming Jokic with more doubles, traps, and help-heavy rotations in Game 6. That sets up a sneaky-good spot to target his Over 4.5 turnovers at plus money.
The Thunder led the NBA in deflections per game during the regular season (21.1) and continue to pace the playoffs with the same number. They also rank first in both steals per game (10.0 in the postseason, 9.4 in this series) and opponent turnover rate, consistently wreaking havoc with their length, anticipation, and ball pressure. Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are ballhawks, and Chet Holmgren’s interior presence gives OKC the freedom to aggressively blitz or rotate with confidence.
Jokic had seven, six, and eight turnovers in the first three games of this series before managing just two apiece in Games 4 and 5 — but I expect some alterations to be made from OKC’s defense after a 44-point explosion. Expect more paint congestion, more help, and more live-ball risk. Remember, after Jokic’s 42 outburst in Game 1, OKC forced him into six turnovers in Game 2.
He’s been pressured into seven turnovers with Holmgren as his primary defender, five against Hartenstein and five against Jaylin Williams — a byproduct of the Thunder constantly mixing their defensive looks and disguising help. Jokic is still averaging 72.4 passes per game this series, and that high volume of playmaking touches offers plenty of chances for deflections, bad-angle passes or offensive fouls.
With Denver averaging 17.0 turnovers per game in this series and Oklahoma City leading the NBA in forcing them, the math and game script align. Expect Jokic to face traps early and often, and at plus money, I love the value on this Over.
