Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Thursday, May 29
The lights will be bright and the stakes even brighter at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night as the Knicks fight to extend their season in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals.
Down 3-1 to the Indiana Pacers, New York returns home as 4.5-point favorites — with Spike Lee, Ben Stiller, Timothée Chalamet and the rest of the Garden faithful ready to rally behind Jalen Brunson and a banged-up Karl-Anthony Towns. But standing in their way? A red-hot Tyrese Haliburton, who’s coming off a historic performance: 32 points, 12 rebounds, 15 assists, 4 steals, and 0 turnovers — the first stat line of its kind in NBA history.
So the questions loom: Can Haliburton play villain again at the Mecca? How much will KAT’s knee limit him? And which role players will rise to the occasion?
I’ve crunched the numbers, dug into the film, and identified several edges I’m targeting in this must-win showdown. Below are my favorite player prop picks for Game Five — all tracked transparently, as always. Let’s go.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 Assists (-130, BetRivers)
It’s clear Tyrese Haliburton took that “most overrated player” vote from his peers personally. He’s not only been consistently excellent throughout the playoffs, but he’s also stepped fully into the role of New York’s public enemy No. 1 — capped off by his Game Four masterpiece and the now-infamous Reggie Miller choke taunt at Madison Square Garden.
What matters for this bet, though, is how dominant he’s been as a facilitator. In Game Four, Haliburton dished out 15 assists on 24 potential assists and passed the ball a whopping 75 times. No other Pacer even came close. No one else topped 35 total passes, three assists or seven potential assists. Outside of T.J. McConnell, no Indiana player even registered more than two potential assists, which is exactly the kind of usage concentration I want before firing on this line.
In this series, Haliburton is averaging 11.0 assists on 18.0 potential dimes while passing the ball 78 times per game. No teammate has averaged more than 3.3 assists, 5.8 potential assists, or 39.8 passes during that stretch. This is his offense — he’s running the show every trip down the floor, and that’s not going to change in a potential closeout game.
And if you’re still not convinced of his impact: Haliburton just became the fastest player since Magic Johnson to reach 500-plus points, 150-plus rebounds, and 250-plus assists in a playoff career. Overrated? Not even close. He’s elite, and this number is still too low.
Pascal Siakam More Points Than Karl-Anthony Towns (+114, DraftKings)
Towns is listed as questionable for Game Five with a knee contusion, but it would be surprising if he didn’t suit up in a potential elimination game. Still, the injury is concerning, especially since it’s his left knee, the same one that required meniscus surgery earlier this year. Even if he plays, I have a hard time believing he’ll be able to drive to the rim, create off the dribble, or play through contact the way he has in recent games. That kind of limitation could also factor into his shooting and impact his three-point accuracy. After logging 35, 20, 24 and 24 points through the first four games, I’m expecting regression here, and I’m happy to fade him in this market.
Pascal Siakam, on the other hand, is in a great spot to take advantage. He’s coming off a strong Game Four in which he dropped 30 points on 11-of-21 shooting and has flashed serious upside throughout the series, including a 39-point eruption in Game Two on 15-of-23 shooting. He’s done well in his individual matchup against Towns when they’ve been directly matched up, scoring 22 points on 9-of-21 shooting across just under 10 minutes of game time. That’s a matchup that could happen even more if the Knicks continue starting Mitchell Robinson instead of Josh Hart, which shifts defensive assignments and opens the door for Siakam to exploit Towns in space.
Most importantly, Siakam has held up against OG Anunoby, New York’s best on-ball defender. In over 27 minutes of direct matchup time, he’s gone 9-for-20 from the field and 4-for-8 from deep, scoring 27 points against a guy that’s considered to be an elite stopper. Add in the plus-money price, and I love the spot.
Jalen Brunson Over 30.5 Points (-102, FanDuel)
Brunson has been sensational in this series, putting up 43, 36, 23, and 31 points across the four games, averaging 33.3 points on an efficient 48.3% shooting. He’s also lived at the free-throw line, scoring 9.5 points per game on 92.7% shooting from the stripe. In a do-or-die Game Five at Madison Square Garden, there’s no doubt New York will lean heavily on the league’s leading clutch scorer.
It’s also worth noting that Brunson and Towns haven’t meshed well on the court, especially on the defensive end, and that could lead Tom Thibodeau to stagger their minutes more aggressively or reduce Towns’ role altogether. That shift would benefit Brunson, who has seen a significant usage spike in those minutes. With Towns off the floor this season, Brunson’s usage rate climbs 3.4 percentage points to an elite 33.6%.
In a must-win spot, with the ball in his hands and the Garden behind him, Brunson should see massive volume once again. He’s cleared this line in three of four games already, and given the context and scoring environment, I’m going right back to the well.
Josh Hart Over 9.5 Rebounds (+105, DraftKings)
With Towns’ injury factored in, Hart’s rebounding upside gets an even bigger boost in Game Five — and it was already strong to begin with. Hart has recorded double-digit rebounds in three of four games this series, posting 13, 10, and 11 boards while averaging 17.5 rebounding chances per game. Despite his shift to a bench role, his playing time hasn’t suffered — he’s logged 34 and 36 minutes in Games Three and Four while operating as the sixth man, and he’s still closing games.
While his scoring and facilitating have been spotty in this matchup, his impact on the glass remains elite, especially for a 6’4” wing. In this series, he’s averaged 2.8 offensive rebounds and 7.3 defensive boards per game and continues to attack the glass from every angle. To put that into context: 2.5 of his rebounds have come from within 3 feet of the rim, 3.0 from 3-to-6 feet, 3.3 from 6-to-10 feet, and 1.3 from beyond 10 feet. He’s tracking the ball and flying in from everywhere, a true ball hawk in every sense.
We’ve already seen Hart throw his body around in this series like the season’s on the line — because it is. That level of desperation isn’t going anywhere in what might be the most important Knicks game in my lifetime. I expect Hart’s trademark effort, minutes and motor to lead him into double digits again.
