Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Thursday, May 8
The Western Conference semifinals continue Tuesday night with Game Two between the Warriors and Timberwolves, and while Golden State holds a surprising 1-0 series lead, there are on-court adjustments and betting angles to take advantage of. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) sidelined, the dynamic of this matchup has shifted dramatically, and that opens up opportunities in the player prop markets.
I’ve identified two high-value props tied directly to how this game is likely to unfold, and you’ll find full analysis below. As always, I’m transparently tracking all of my official VSiN picks — you can follow along with my record and results right here. Through two articles, I’ve gotten off to a hot start with a 6-2 record and a profit of 3.2 units (all plays assume 1.0 unit risk unless otherwise specified). Let’s dive into Tuesday night’s top plays!
Jimmy Butler Over 13.5 Rebounds + Assists (-105, BetMGM)
With Curry now expected to miss multiple games, the spotlight shifts to Jimmy Butler, and for us prop bettors, so does the value. Butler is thriving in his new role with the Warriors, and with Curry sidelined, he’s not just stepping into a scoring void — he’s taking on the full responsibility of initiating the offense and cleaning the glass. That makes his Over 13.5 Rebounds + Assists at -105 one of the sharpest plays on the board today.
Let’s start with the facilitation. With Curry off the floor this postseason, Butler’s assist rate has jumped 6.7% to 34.6% — a massive leap that reflects his shift into primary playmaker status. In Game One against Minnesota, Butler racked up eight assists on 10 potential assists, following up eight assists on 15 potential assists in Game Six and seven assists on 17 potential assists in Game Seven of the last round against the Rockets. He’s clearly overtaken Draymond Green as the team’s top distributor — and now, with Curry out, that concentration of touches should increase even more.
The trend stretches back to the regular season. In three games without Curry, Butler averaged 7.0 assists on 15.7 potential assists, including a monster 10-assist, 22-potential-assist outing against Milwaukee. His ability to read the floor, draw help, and find shooters gives him an elite assist floor without needing massive usage, and now he’ll get it.
Then there’s the rebounding. Butler grabbed 11 boards on 16 chances in Game One, and has been consistently active on the glass lately: nine boards on 16 chances in Game Six of last round, eight on 17 chances in Game Seven and averaged 6.0 rebounds on 10+ chances in his Curry-less regular season starts. He’s leading the Warriors in contested rebounds per game (3.0) this postseason, which tells us he’s not just grabbing freebies — he’s fighting for them. That’s the kind of engagement that signals a player is locked in and fighting for his production.
To recap, Butler posted 19 combined rebounds + assists on 26 chances in Game One, and with no Curry to share usage or playmaking, the opportunity will only grow in Game Two. In a game where the Warriors will need Butler to be “Playoff Jimmy” from the opening tip, the volume should follow. He’s carried less talented rosters through the playoffs before, and he’s made it clear: he’s found his joy again in Golden State. That joy is turning into hustle, leadership, wins—and counting stats. Let’s take advantage.
Rudy Gobert Over 10.5 Rebounds (-120, DraftKings)
Sometimes, one injury completely shifts a player’s role and impact in a series, and Curry’s hamstring absence has done exactly that for Rudy Gobert. What looked like a potentially difficult matchup has suddenly turned into a spot where Gobert can thrive. With the game slowing down and the Warriors operating without their floor-spacing sharpshooter, Gobert’s rebounding value skyrockets — and his Over 10.5 rebounds at -120 is one of the strongest bets on the board.
In Game One, Gobert pulled down 11 rebounds on 25 rebounding chances in just 26 minutes — pure domination on the glass. And that’s with limited minutes and some brutal physicality underneath. Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch even complained to the league office about how much Gobert was being held, pushed, and grabbed. If Gobert gets a more favorable whistle in Game Two, his effectiveness, especially on the offensive glass, could climb even higher. He grabbed four offensive boards on 10 chances in Game One and was still visibly frustrated by the lack of calls.
With Curry out, this series is likely to become a defensive slugfest. The pace slows, possessions lengthen, and Gobert’s size becomes a weapon. The Warriors will be forced to rotate bodies like Kevon Looney, Quinten Post, Draymond Green, and Jonathan Kuminga onto him, none of whom can match his size or rebounding instincts. Gobert is a finesse rebounder with elite timing and reach, and this is the kind of environment where he can impose his will.
The regular-season stats support the edge. Golden State allowed the fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing centers during the regular season — it’s been a consistent weakness. Without Curry stretching the floor and pulling Gobert out of the paint, he now gets to anchor down and live inside, exactly where he’s most comfortable.
Gobert was a huge part of the Timberwolves’ series win over the Lakers, and now that Curry is sidelined, he’s becoming crucial once again. His opportunity on the boards — on both ends — is elite in this new setup.
I’ll be back tomorrow to close out the week. Good luck tonight, all!
