Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Tuesday, May 13
Yesterday was brutal. Rudy Gobert came up one rebound short of his +340 first-quarter alt line despite seeing many chances, Jayson Tatum and OG Anunoby both decided to shoot like prime Ray Allen, and to top it off, a late stat correction docked Karl-Anthony Towns a rebound, turning a winning ticket into a bad beat. That’s the grind of props — the margins are razor-thin. But as Bill Belichick would say, we’re onto the next one.
Tuesday’s NBA slate features two pivotal matchups: the Cavaliers return home down 3-1 against the Pacers in a win-or-go-home spot, while the Nuggets and Thunder head into a massive Game Five with the series tied 2-2. I’ve broken down my favorite player prop picks for tonight below, and as always, full transparency on results can be found in my tracking sheet. Let’s bounce back.
TJ McConnell Over 11.5 Points + Assists (-115, DraftKings)
TJ McConnell has quietly become one of Indiana’s most valuable contributors off the bench all season long, and this 11.5 combo line doesn’t fully reflect his impact. He’s cleared this number in back-to-back games, posting 12 points and six assists in Game Three, followed by 13 points and 8 assists in Game Four, all while playing just 21 and 18 minutes, respectively.
McConnell has been relentless in his minutes, racking up 14 potential assists in Game Four and nine in Game Three. His pace, toughness, and ability to create in the pick-and-roll have been huge for Indiana, especially when Tyrese Haliburton has struggled. Despite being a backup, he’s carved out a key offensive role and continues to have Rick Carlisle’s trust.
As the Pacers head home with a 3-1 series lead and a chance to close out Cleveland, expect McConnell to stay aggressive and maintain his 18–to-24 minute role. If he keeps producing at this rate, this number is a few points too low — and I’ll gladly take the value.
Donovan Mitchell Under 27.5 Points (-110, Caesars)
Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable for Game Five after aggravating his ankle in Sunday’s blowout loss — and even if he suits up, this number feels too high. In Game Four, Mitchell clearly wasn’t himself, finishing with just 12 points on 3-of-11 shooting in 20 minutes before being shut down for the night.
With the Cavaliers trailing 3-1 in the series, there’s a good chance he tries to gut it out on his home floor. But given how much of his game relies on explosiveness, balance, and burst, it’s hard to envision him having the scoring impact needed to clear this line. Mitchell at less than 100% — especially with the Pacers able to throw multiple defenders at him — could serve more as a decoy than the primary option we’re used to. The upside just isn’t there if his mobility is limited, and the risk of reduced minutes or re-aggravation mid-game only adds to the case for the under.
Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 Points (-115, DraftKings)
Nikola Jokic opened the series with a dominant 42-point performance in Game One, but since then, Oklahoma City has completely shifted the narrative, and his scoring numbers have followed suit. Over the last three games, Jokic has posted 17, 20, and 27 points while shooting just 21-of-63 from the field (33.3%). It marks the first time in his career that he’s shot under 40% with 15+ attempts in three straight games, regular season or playoffs, per ESPN Research.
A big reason? The Thunder’s swarming, disciplined defense. Jaylin Williams has been a menace off the bench, and Jokic is shooting just 5-of-18 (27.8%) with two assists and four turnovers when Williams has been his primary defender in this series. But it’s not just Williams — Mark Daigneault’s defensive scheme has been masterful, constantly rotating defenders and crowding the paint. In his Game Four postgame comments, Jokic even acknowledged that OKC is shrinking the floor, putting a defender in front of him and a guard behind, forcing him to make reads every trip down.
In Game Four, Jokic shot just 7-of-22 from the field, including 3-of-10 when matched up with Isaiah Hartenstein. After the grueling Clippers series and facing another smart, physical front line, Jokic surprisingly looks fatigued — and this number assumes a scoring bounce-back that may not materialize. With the Thunder clearly committed to letting Joker’s teammates beat them, I’m fading his points again in Game Five.
Aaron Gordon Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (+105, DraftKings)
With Oklahoma City throwing everything it can at Nikola Jokic defensively, Aaron Gordon has quietly emerged as one of Denver’s most important secondary facilitators and rebounders — and that’s what makes this combo line so appealing in Game Five.
Gordon has gone over this 10.5 rebounds + assists line in three of four games in the series and is averaging 10.8 rebounds on 15.0 rebounding chances and 3.3 assists on 8.5 potential assists per game. In Game Four, he exploded for 16 rebounds and six assists, doing exactly what the Nuggets needed when Jokic was swarmed: crashing the glass and keeping the ball moving.
With the series tied 2-2 and OKC continuing to sell out to contain Jokic, Gordon’s utility role becomes even more crucial. He’s going to be asked to make plays, clean the defensive glass, and provide consistent energy. At plus money, this is great value for a player whose role and output have both trended up in this matchup.
