Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Tuesday, May 20
We’ve got a fascinating Game One on deck in the Western Conference Finals as the Thunder host the Timberwolves in what oddsmakers project as a comfortable OKC win. The Thunder are 7.5-point favorites, with the total set at 215.5 at the time of this writing. But don’t sleep on Minnesota. You could argue they’ve been the most complete team in the West this postseason, and with the scars (and experience) of last year’s playoff run, they’re not coming in wide-eyed. This is a battle-tested, talented group with legitimate revenge motivation.
There’s always some blowout risk in a game with this kind of spread, and we’ve seen how that can derail even the sharpest player prop leans. But I’m sticking with the process that led me to multi-year profits: following the matchup data, usage trends and contextual edges to find value on the prop board — and, as always, tracking the picks transparently here at VSiN. Let’s break down Game One and spotlight a few prop angles worth targeting.
Anthony Edwards Under 27.5 Points (-125, BetMGM)
This is a brutal matchup for Anthony Edwards, and the number feels a few points too high given the Thunder’s elite defensive structure and how well they’ve already contained the young star this season.
In four regular-season meetings with OKC, Edwards went under this number three times with point totals of 17, 23, and 20, clearing it just once with 29. In those games, he shot a combined 24-of-66 from the field (36.3%) and turned the ball over 14 times, struggling against the Thunder’s switchable, swarming defense. He’s now 44-44 to this scoring line on the season.
Now, in the postseason, Ant is averaging 7.3 shot attempts per game in the restricted area but converting an inefficient 54.8% of them, and OKC allows the fewest paint touches per game of any team in the playoffs. The interior won’t be any easier this round, especially with Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and even SGA all likely to take turns guarding him all over the floor.
Add in the Thunder’s NBA-best 101.6 playoff Defensive Rating, their way to create turnovers and their dominant transition game, and you get a game script that could frustrate Edwards and limit his rhythm in the halfcourt. The matchup data, shooting splits, and pace dynamics all lean toward the under here. I’ll trust the Thunder to make life difficult for Ant in Game One.
Naz Reid Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-128, FanDuel)
There’s quiet but real value on Naz Reid in Game One, especially if Rudy Gobert is limited or sees his minutes reduced. Reid has feasted against the Thunder this season, averaging 22.5 points and 11.0 rebounds across four regular-season matchups, with three of those games coming when Gobert was out. Even in a more crowded frontcourt rotation with Gobert and Julius Randle, Reid’s floor-spacing ability and offensive versatility give him a positive outlook. He’s gone 68-22 to the over vs. this number on the season, too!
His regular season game log against the Thunder includes 22 points and 11 rebounds, 27 and 14, 22 and 11, and 19 and 8 — numbers that comfortably clear this combo line. He averaged 16.8 rebounding chances in this matchup in the regular season and has knocked down 46.7% of his three-point attempts in the playoffs, making him one of the Timberwolves’ most efficient and reliable weapons on the offensive end.
With OKC’s pace and ability to force rotations, Reid is likely to see clean catch-and-shoot opportunities on the perimeter, and his ability to stay on the floor in smaller, faster lineups only increases his path to volume. This is a great matchup for his skill set, and the historical production makes this Over a strong play. As I mentioned in my series prop preview article, the lineup of Reid, Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo has had a ridiculously-efficient +34.6 Net Rating in 49 minutes during the postseason, which is something Chris Finch and his staff know and should experiment with. That leads me to my next pick.
Donte DiVincenzo Over 12.5 Points + Assists (-105, Caesars)
Donte DiVincenzo has quietly emerged as an important piece in Minnesota’s rotation, and this series sets up well for him to play a meaningful role. The Thunder are going to be locked in defensively on Edwards and the paint, areas where OKC thrives, which should naturally open up space on the perimeter. That’s where DiVincenzo can take advantage, both as a spot-up shooter and as a secondary playmaker.
He logged 10 points and five assists in 30 minutes in his lone game against the Thunder in the regular season, and given the expected intensity and physicality of this series, his skill set fits better than Mike Conley’s. Conley’s age and defensive limitations could open the door for more DiVincenzo minutes, particularly if Minnesota leans into lineups that prioritize switching and spacing with physicality. He’s gone 38-33 to the over vs. this number this season, and the former NBA champion has proven that he can deliver in clutch situations at this level.
This isn’t a high bar for a player capable of easily putting up a 10-point, three-assist type of line in 25-to-30 minutes. If his usage and minutes stay where they were in Round Two, or even climb, this Over has a great shot to clear in Game One.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 38.5 Points + Assists (-112, FanDuel)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the engine of everything Oklahoma City does offensively, and this matchup offers multiple paths for him to clear this number. In four regular-season games against the Timberwolves, SGA averaged 35.0 points and 6.8 assists, including individual game lines of 39/8, 37/8, 24/9, and 40/2. That’s three games with at least 45 combined points and assists and only one under this line. He’s gone 44-43 to the Over vs. this number on the season.
His recent passing ceiling is also quietly being overlooked. In the playoffs, SGA is averaging 6.4 assists on 16.1 potential assists, suggesting there’s room for a breakout assist game if his teammates knock down open looks. In the regular season vs. Minnesota, he averaged 13.0 potential assists as a distributor, shot 51.1% overall and 55.6% from three. Combine that with his aggressive driving (he’s led all NBA players in drives per game over the last five seasons) and his frequent trips to the free throw line as a foul merchant (10.0 FTM on 12.0 FTA per game vs. Minnesota this season) and it’s clear the volume will be elite again.
SGA is going to play 40+ minutes in a competitive Game One. Whether he’s scoring in isolation or setting up shooters out of double teams, the workload will be secure. With such a strong production history in this matchup and clear assist upside, I like his chances to clear this combo line again.
Jalen Williams Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-130, DraftKings)
Williams has been one of the Thunder’s most versatile contributors this postseason, and this prop is simply too low given his volume and matchup history against Minnesota. In four regular-season games vs. the Timberwolves, Williams averaged 4.8 rebounds on 9.0 chances and 6.8 assists on 12.3 potentials, clearing this number with ease in all four games, finishing with 14, 12, 12, and 12 combined rebounds and assists.
Even in the playoffs, against two physical and well-coached teams in the Grizzlies and Nuggets, he’s continued to show a high floor in this category. Williams is averaging 5.4 rebounds on 10.1 chances and 5.7 assists on 10.8 potentials, totaling 11.1 combined per game on 20.9 total opportunities. That kind of usage gives him a strong base to work from, especially as a secondary facilitator behind SGA and a wing who crashes the glass in small-ball lineups.
With Minnesota focused on limiting dribble penetration and paint touches from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams could be leaned on even more as a connector and rebounder. He’s quietly one of the Thunder’s most important glue guys. With a prop sitting under his average volume and past performance against this exact team, I like him to go Over again in Game One.
Good luck in Game One, I’ll be right back here tomorrow with picks for Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Knicks and Pacers!
