Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Tuesday, May 27
After going down 0-2, the Knicks kept their season alive in dramatic fashion, erasing a 20-point deficit to stun the Pacers and take Game Three behind a clutch performance from Karl-Anthony Towns. With the momentum now swinging back toward New York, Game Four becomes a pivotal moment in the series. As of this writing, the Pacers are 2.5-point home favorites with a total set at 220.5, per DraftKings.
Both coaching staffs are likely to make subtle adjustments in response to the Game Three swing. That opens the door for value in the prop market, and I’ve pinpointed three player props that stand out based on matchup dynamics, recent trends and projected role shifts. As always, you can take a look back at my tracking sheet to see how my previous picks have performed. Let’s break them down.
T.J. McConnell Over 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120, DraftKings)
T.J. McConnell has been a per-minute machine all postseason, and this prop continues to offer value regardless of his limited playing time. Through three games against the Knicks, he’s played just 14, 14, and 15 minutes, yet has delivered PRA totals of 16, 16, and 18. He’s averaged 10.7 points on 53.8% shooting, 3.0 rebounds (on 6.7 rebounding chances) and 3.0 assists (on 5.3 potential assists) in the series. When he’s on the floor, he’s fully engaged and productive — and that’s reflected in his elite usage rates of 32.4%, 27.3%, and 38.7% through the first three games. His assist rates have come in at 33.3%, 40.0%, and 42.9%, showing just how involved he is in initiating offense in short bursts.
The home/road split has also been meaningful. In five home games this postseason, McConnell has averaged 12.0 points (54.7% FG), 3.5 rebounds and 5.0 assists in just 17.0 minutes per game. That adds up to 20.5 PRA per game. His home rebounding chances are at 6.0 per game, and his home potential assists are at 7.0 per game — both of which suggest he’s consistently active and positioned to deliver across the board with volume.
Whether it’s been against the Bucks, Cavs or Knicks, McConnell has hit at least 15 PRA in every home playoff game and has gone over this 13.5 line in all three games against New York. Rick Carlisle continues to lean on him as a spark plug off the bench, and it’s clear his role is very safe. With his current usage profile and stat production, this number is simply too low.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 21.5 Points (-105, Caesars)
Karl-Anthony Towns enters Game Four with confidence and a clear matchup edge that the Knicks must continue to exploit. He finished with 24 points in Game Three, helping fuel New York’s 20-point comeback with key buckets down the stretch. While the raw total may not jump off the page, the underlying data is eye-popping: Towns has scored 45 points across 89.8 partial possessions against opposing starter Myles Turner in this series, shooting 18-of-28 from the field and 8-of-13 from three when matched up with Indiana’s center.
His series totals now sit at 35, 20 and 24 points. Game Two was the only time he fell short of this number, and that had more to do with coaching decisions than performance. Towns played just 28 minutes and sat down the stretch in the fourth quarter in favor of Mitchell Robinson, a puzzling move considering the offensive upside he brings to the floor. When he’s played a full workload, he’s been productive and efficient.
Towns has consistently gotten the better of Turner throughout his career. In 14 total matchups (including playoffs), he’s averaged 28.4 points on 53.0% shooting and 44.0% from three, going over this 21.5-point line in eight of the last 10 meetings. The two unders were narrowly missed at 20 and 21 points, showing how tight the margin is when he hasn’t hit.
He’s also been generating high-quality looks. Through three games in this series, he’s averaging 8.0 “open” or “wide open” shot attempts per game, a product of his ability to stretch the floor and force defenders out of the paint.
After being the Knicks’ most consistent offensive force in Game Three, Towns should continue to see volume in Game Four — and if he’s anywhere near as efficient as he’s been when isolated against Turner, this 21.5-point line is a strong buy.
Ben Sheppard Over 2.5 Points (-145, BetMGM)
Ben Sheppard may not be a household name, but his role in Indiana’s rotation is quietly growing, and this prop is all about understanding that context. Sheppard has emerged as the Pacers’ secondary defender on Jalen Brunson off the bench, a high-responsibility assignment that’s earned him trust from Rick Carlisle. While Aaron Nesmith has drawn most of the primary coverage (86.9 partial possessions), Sheppard has logged the second-most defensive possessions on Brunson, holding him to 5-of-12 shooting (and 7-of-8 from the line) across 8:01 of head-to-head matchup time.
That defensive responsibility is translating into more floor time. Sheppard played just seven minutes as a non-factor in Game One, but followed that up with six points in Game Two and three points in 17 minutes in Game Three. With Bennedict Mathurin logging just eight minutes in Game Three and struggling defensively throughout the postseason, there’s a strong case that Sheppard steals his minutes entirely moving forward, especially given his defensive hustle and Carlisle’s preference for high-effort players.
Sheppard has also proven he can knock down shots when called upon. He’s shooting 48.1% from the field and 40.9% from three this postseason and dropped a playoff-high 14 points in Game Four against the Cavs. When he’s logged double-digit minutes in these playoffs, he’s gone 6-0 to the over on this 2.5-point line. Overall, he’s cleared this number in 52 of 74 games this season — a strong 70.3% hit rate.
This prop doesn’t require anything flashy — just an open look or a corner three will do the trick. And if Nesmith picks up early fouls (which is always in play when guarding Brunson), Sheppard’s path to significant minutes becomes even clearer. Add in the fact that he has the third-best plus-minus among all players on the four teams in the Conference Finals (+23), and it’s clear he’s earned meaningful trust in Indiana’s rotation.
I’ll be back tomorrow to break down Game Five of the Western Conference Finals!
