Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Tuesday, May 6th
I’m thrilled and honored to make my debut here at VSiN with a breakdown of Tuesday’s NBA playoff slate — a two-game offering featuring Pacers vs. Cavaliers Game 2 and Warriors vs. Timberwolves Game 1. These matchups present real opportunities in prop markets, especially with key injuries in play, matchups and playoff rotations tightening. Every possession matters, and so does every edge.
Before we dive into the plays, it’s important to quickly address NBA injury news. For Cleveland, Darius Garland (toe), Evan Mobley (ankle), and De’Andre Hunter (thumb) are all listed as questionable. That’s a huge deal with the Cavaliers already trailing 0-1 in the series, and any of those absences would significantly alter player prop markets for both teams. The Pacers will again be without Isaiah Jackson (Achilles), who’s out for the season.
In the Western Conference matchup, Gary Payton II (illness) is questionable for Golden State after missing Game 7 against Houston. If he’s out again, expect an uptick in minutes and usage for Jonathan Kuminga, Buddy Hield and Moses Moody. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s Rob Dillingham (ankle) is also listed as questionable, but he’s currently outside of the Wolves’ playoff rotation, so his status won’t move the needle.
With those updates in mind, let’s get into Tuesday’s top NBA player prop picks — all backed by matchup analysis, advanced stats and projected value.
Donovan Mitchell Over 27.5 Points (-118, FanDuel)
My first play on the board comes from a spot that screams desperation — and elite volume. I’m backing Donovan Mitchell Over 27.5 Points in Game 2 against the Pacers. Mitchell posted a 33-point effort in Game 1 on 13-of-30 shooting, including an ice-cold 1-of-11 from 3, but it was his 41.5% usage rate that tells the real story. Even on an inefficient shooting night, he still cleared this number with room to spare — and that volume is only going to sustain or increase if Cleveland’s injuries hold.
Let’s talk usage. Mitchell had a 31.38% usage rate during the regular season, but that number spikes with any combination of Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and De’Andre Hunter off the court — up to 34.31% when all three are off, which is a real possibility tonight. Even if those players suit up, Mitchell will dominate touches and playmaking responsibilities. In Game 1, he was ultra-aggressive attacking the rim, driving 17 times and going 10-for-13 on drives, scoring 20 of his 33 points downhill. He passed just four times on those plays — a clear sign that this playoff version of Mitchell is going to hunt his own shot.
This is a must-win spot for Cleveland, and Mitchell knows it. He’s the one constant they can rely on to create offense when things break down, and I expect another 20+ shot attempt performance with plenty of free throw trips baked in. Volume plus desperation equals a ceiling spot — and this number is too low given the context. Newly-awarded Coach of the Year Kenny Atkinson will let him run the show.
Andrew Nembhard Over 4.5 Assists (-110, DraftKings)
Next up, I’m targeting Andrew Nembhard to go over his assist total — a prop that’s sitting far too low given his postseason role in Indiana’s offense. In Game 1 against Cleveland, Nembhard dished out six assists on 12 potential dimes, logging 60 passes in 37 minutes. The only Pacer who moved the ball more was Tyrese Haliburton, who had 73 passes and 13 assists. Nembhard also led the team in minutes and finished just behind Haliburton in frontcourt touches (40 to Haliburton’s 44), a clear indicator that the coaching staff trusts him to initiate and organize possessions — not just play off-ball.
Looking back to the first-round series against the Bucks, Nembhard averaged 4.8 assists on 7.6 potential assists across 32.2 minutes. But what really stands out is his performance against Cleveland this season: he averaged 6.0 helpers and 11.0 potential assists per game in just 26 minutes during the regular season. That kind of per-minute facilitation paired with a consistent 30+ minute playoff role creates a strong floor for assist production — especially when reserve playmaker TJ McConnell sees limited minutes per game. McConnell only had only four potential assists across 15 minutes in Game 1.
While there’s lots of buzz surrounding Nembhard’s surprising three-point efficiency — he’s made three triples in three of his last four games despite doing that zero times in the regular season — I’m not chasing the variance there. Nembhard has always been a low-volume shooter, and the smarter play is to lean into his consistent usage as a secondary playmaker. With the ball in his hands this often and Haliburton drawing the defense’s full attention, Nembhard should once again rack up assists — and 4.5 is a very beatable line.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 5.5 Points (+110, BetMGM)
Another strong value spot on Monday’s slate comes with Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s points — and it comes with some serious ladder potential as I’ll get to in a second. The Wolves are about to enter a series where depth and defensive flexibility will be critical, and NAW is the kind of matchup-specific player who could thrive. He’s long, athletic, and versatile enough to chase Golden State’s off-ball movement and switch defensively — traits that could make him essential against the Warriors’ small-ball lineups.
Rudy Gobert is likely to struggle when pulled away from the basket, and Mike Conley may not be able to hang with Golden State’s quicker, more physical guards for extended stretches. That’s where Alexander-Walker comes in. He played 20.0 minutes per game off the bench in the Lakers series and closed out Game 5 with 10 points. Even though he shot just 26.5% from the field and 21.7% from three in that series (yikes), he’s due for positive regression, especially considering his finishing around the rim has improved significantly this season — up to 65% after ranking near the bottom of the league his first few years. That’s the type of improvement I love to see.
He has a history of scoring in bunches when his shot is falling, including a 19-point game against Golden State earlier this season (7-of-9 FG, 4-of-5 3PT). And while he stayed under this number in three of four games vs. the Warriors during the regular season, this matchup feels different — the Wolves will need his perimeter defense and scoring punch to keep up with Golden State’s pace and spacing, especially with Jimmy Butler now on the Warriors. I expect Alexander-Walker’s minutes to rise into the 23–25 range per game.
Not only is the Over 5.5 points line mispriced based on opportunity, but there’s also clear upside to ladder this at DraftKings: 8+ Points: +175, 10+ Points: +330, 12+ Points: +600, 15+ Points: +1500, 18+ Points: +3000.
With more minutes, more favorable matchups, and a strong narrative (he is playing for a new contract as an upcoming unrestricted free agent), there’s sneaky value here at every tier. Take the base line and consider climbing with me!
Mike Conley Under 6.5 Points (-128, Caesars)
The last prop I’m targeting for Warriors-Timberwolves is Conley Under 6.5 Points — a line that feels a few points too high based on this brutal matchup. This isn’t a knock on Conley’s value to the Timberwolves overall — he’s an experienced leader and floor-setter — but this specific series poses a real problem for him stylistically.
Golden State’s motion offense will make life tough for Conley defensively. He’s already shown signs of wearing down late in the Lakers series, and he’s coming off two quiet outings against the Warriors in the regular season where he scored just three points on 1-of-6 shooting in 25 minutes and one point on 0-of-3 in 19 minutes. There’s a very real possibility that Chris Finch shortens Conley’s leash in this series, especially if he struggles to keep up with the Warriors’ tempo and off-ball movement. Players like Alexander-Walker and DiVincenzo are better suited to chase around Steph Curry and Co. — and they also bring more athleticism and defensive versatility.
In the first round against the Lakers, Conley did go over this number in three of five games and he averaged 24.0 minutes and 5.6 field goal attempts per game, shooting a poor 35.7% from the field. At this stage of his career, he’s not someone who creates his own shot, and the Wolves don’t run sets for him to score — his scoring is mostly opportunistic. Between a tough matchup and physical limitations, this feels like a strong Under to back. Don’t be surprised if Conley fades into the background quickly in this series.
Good luck tonight and I’ll be back tomorrow to run it back!
