Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Wednesday, June 11
After getting stunned by another Tyrese Haliburton buzzer-beater in Game One, the Oklahoma City Thunder bounced back in a big way, controlling Game Two from start to finish in a convincing 123-107 win. They cleaned up their biggest weakness from the opener, flipping a 17-rebound deficit into an eight-board advantage while imposing their will on both ends of the floor.
Now, with the series shifting to Indiana tied 1-1, the Thunder enter as 5.5-point road favorites, and the total sits at 228.5. It’s still a small sample, but we’ve learned plenty: rotations have tightened, roles are more defined, and we’re starting to see where the matchups are trending. With that in mind, let’s break down my favorite player prop targets for Game Three. As always, you can track all my picks here. Let’s get into it.
Tyrese Haliburton Under 25.5 Points + Assists (-105, DraftKings)
Despite hitting that miraculous shot in Game One, Haliburton’s offensive rhythm has been completely disrupted by Oklahoma City’s aggressive, switch-heavy defense. While he posted 17 points and six assists in Game Two, he had just five points through the first three quarters and looked out of sorts navigating relentless ball pressure. In the series, he’s averaging 15.5 points and 6.0 assists (21.5 points + assists)—well below this line—while committing eight turnovers, his most over any two-game span since March 2023.
That’s not a coincidence.
The Thunder are deploying a rotating cast of elite perimeter stoppers to smother him. Lu Dort has held him to 1-for-5 shooting and just two points over 55.1 partial possessions, while Jalen Williams has limited him to 1-for-4 shooting and three points in 16.7 partial possessions. Alex Caruso hasn’t allowed a single point to him on 15.8 partial possessions, and Cason Wallace has contained him to four points on 2-for-3 in 25.1 partial possessions. To hammer home just how well he’s been defended: Haliburton is averaging just 2.5 made “open” (defender 4-to-6 feet away) shots per game in the series—extremely low for a player who thrives on clean looks and spacing. He’s just not getting a ton of those looks (6.5 open shots per contest).
Indiana is just 27-28 in games in which Haliburton scores under 20 points this season (regular season + playoffs) compared to 32-4 when he eclipses that mark. OKC has held him under 20 in both games so far. His late-game heroics—four game-winners this postseason—have overshadowed his inconsistency. Unless he comes out firing and finds early success, this line feels inflated given how little daylight he’s been given.
Rick Carlisle’s system requires Haliburton to swing the ball, push the ball down the floor, create spacing, and operate late in the shot clock under pressure if needed—not ideal against an elite defense with no real weak link. I’ll take the Under.
TJ McConnell Over 10.5 Points + Assists (-130, DraftKings)
Haliburton’s backup TJ McConnell continues to thrive in his bench role, giving the Pacers a much-needed spark with his relentless pace and efficiency. He’s cleared this line in both games of the series—posting 13 and 17 combined points + assists—while shooting 9-of-13 from the field and generating 18 potential assists across two contests. His 11 points and six dimes in Game Two came in 18 minutes, a testament to his per-minute impact that we’ve seen all season long.
At home in these playoffs, McConnell is averaging 10.1 points on 54.9% shooting and 4.4 assists on 6.9 potential assists, numbers that align well with this prop. He’s also gone over this number in six of his last eight games dating back to the start of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Knicks, proving he can consistently contribute in these categories, even in high-pressure situations. Coach Carlisle trusts him. He gets minutes alongside Haliburton and has the proven ability to run the second unit with efficiency, something that has awarded him additional minutes if the group is clicking.
McConnell’s ability to push the pace and generate high-efficiency shots for himself and others makes him a valuable playmaker off the bench, especially at home, where his confidence and minutes tend to rise. At 10.5, I’m comfortable betting over this number.
Obi Toppin Over 1.5 Made Threes (+120, DraftKings)
In Game One, Toppin dazzled, going 6-of-9 from the field and 5-for-8 from three en route to 17 points. Then he essentially laid a dud in Game Two, going just 1-for-8 shooting, including 1-for-5 from three for three points. As someone who bet over his points + rebounds, it was a yucky feeling, I’ll admit.
An important aspect of prop betting, however, is to know when to go right back to the well or deviate paths. I’ve blacklisted my fair share of players over the years, but Toppin just had a bad shooting night in Game Two and will likely get his usual 20-to-25 minute workload in Game Three. I’m going right back to him.
So far in this series, OKC has given him seven wide-open looks from three (four in Game One, three in Game Two), and the versatile big man should continue to get those high-percentage opportunities moving forward.
Role players tend to shoot better at home, and Toppin’s numbers reflect that, too. He’s converted 37.0% of his threes at home compared to 30.6% on the road in these playoffs. No team in these playoffs has allowed more than OKC’s 12.8 corner threes. They’ve surrendered a whopping 16.0 per game to start this series. Indiana has converted 53.1% of those looks, so if there’s one exploitable edge for the Pacers to attack, it’s this one. Toppin ranks second on his team with 3.5 corner threes taken per game in this series and is shooting 42.9% on those looks and 40.9% on those looks in the postseason. He should get the volume to swish a couple from deep, and I love the price tag.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 Points (-115, Caesars)
NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is putting on a masterclass in his first NBA Finals appearance—scoring a combined 72 points through two games, the most ever by a player to begin a Finals career. After dropping 38 points on 30 shots in Game One, he followed up with 34 on just 21 attempts in Game Two, adding 18 total free-throw attempts across both games.
Simply put: Indiana has no answers and won’t have any all of a sudden in Game Three. I don’t want to exaggerate, but watching him thrive in the mid-range has reminded me of Michael Jordan.
SGA spent the heart of Game Two slicing through Indiana’s defense with surgical precision—splitting traps, taking advantage of mismatched defenders and dictating every possession with poise. With no reliable point-of-attack defender to slow him down and with his usage sky-high, it’s hard to see any defensive adjustment Indiana can make that will slow him down. He’s cleared this number in both games, and the film backs up the box score: this is his series.
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (+110, DraftKings)
Isaiah Hartenstein is quietly becoming a key connector for Oklahoma City off the bench in this series, combining his high-motor rebounding with some sneaky passing skills. He’s averaging 8.5 rebounds on 13.0 chances per game in the Finals and has dished out 2.0 assists on 6.0 potential assists—including nine potential assists in Game Two, when he clearly made an effort to facilitate. He posted eight rebounds and four assists in 22 minutes last game, a strong indicator of his per-minute upside.
Hartenstein’s chemistry with cutters and shooters out of the high post has opened up OKC’s offense in a big way. His knack for extending possessions with offensive boards adds to the ceiling here. With OKC leaning on his physicality and feel against Indiana’s frontline, this is a sneaky spot to back a role player whose box score impact often exceeds his minutes. He can realistically go over this number in rebounds alone, so I love getting this as a combo prop at this number.
Alex Caruso Over 9.5 Points (-105, Caesars)
Alex Caruso isn’t just earning his minutes in these Finals—he’s capitalizing on them. The veteran guard has scored 11 and 20 points through the first two games, averaging 15.5 PPG on 47.4% shooting. He has even shockingly matched Haliburton’s total (31 points) through two contests. He’s played 27 and 28 minutes and is being rewarded for his defense with a steady offensive role as well.
The former NBA champion has seen a team-high 4.5 wide-open three-point attempts per game in the series and has knocked down 2.0 per contest, taking advantage of the attention drawn by OKC’s stars. He’s been more aggressive than usual, hunting his shots, confidently stepping into rhythm looks and driving to the rim with physicality. With his veteran experience and two-way impact, there’s virtually zero risk of him getting played off the floor.
Caruso is poised to keep cashing in on clean looks. I think this is still undervalued given his current role.
I’ll be back right here for Game Four! Good luck!
