Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Wednesday, May 14
The Celtics face elimination tonight, trailing the Knicks 3-1 and now forced to play without Jayson Tatum, who suffered a torn Achilles in Game Four. Tatum’s absence removes 25.0 points, 11.8 rebounds (on 14.5 chances), and 5.5 assists (on 12.0 potential assists) per game from the Boston offense, along with his 41.5 minutes per contest. That’s a massive production gap, and it will take a collective effort to fill it. I expect Joe Mazzulla and his staff to preach their team-centric offensive identity, avoiding heavy isolation play in favor of ball movement and spacing.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have a chance to close out the Warriors at home in Game Five, but the chaos and unpredictability of that series have made the prop market difficult to pin down. So for tonight’s slate, all five of my player prop picks come from the Celtics side — a team I’ve watched closely all season long. As always, full transparency on touted picks and results can be found on my tracking sheet. Let’s dive in.
Jaylen Brown Over 29.5 Points + Assists (-125, FanDuel)
With Tatum out for Game Five, Jaylen Brown becomes the clear focal point of the Celtics’ offense — and this 29.5 points + assists line reflects that new reality, but still leaves enough room for value. In 733 minutes without Tatum this season, Brown has seen a team-high 4.01% usage bump, bringing him to a team-high 33.1%, while his assist rate has also jumped by over nine percentage points to a team-leading 29.6%. That tells you everything you need to know about the role he’s about to step into.
Since the start of the 2023-24 season, Brown has averaged 26.8 points per game in the 13 games he’s played without Tatum, and the Celtics have gone 16-3 in those 19 Tatum-less contests (1-0 in the playoffs). This Game 5 against the Knicks is a very different situation, and Boston will need Brown to deliver.
So far in this series, Brown has averaged 20.5 points and 3.3 assists (with 28, 21, 24, and 22 combined points + assists in the four games), but that’s with Tatum taking up a huge share of the offense. With him out, Brown will not only absorb more shot volume but also take on more playmaking responsibilities, especially in Mazzulla’s motion-heavy offense. As last year’s Finals MVP and the emotional engine of this team, expect Brown to step up in a massive way with the season on the line.
Derrick White Over 18.5 Points (-106, FanDuel)
Derrick White will be one of the Celtics’ most important scoring options, and his track record in these spots gives us confidence to back the over. In 769 minutes with Tatum off the floor this season, White has seen a 3.4% usage increase, bumping him to 23.4%. He’s averaged 20.3 points per game in 14 games without Tatum over the past two seasons, a strong indicator that he’s ready to absorb additional shot volume.
White has scored 19, 20, 17, and 23 points in the four games this series, and he’s been aggressively hunting three-point shots throughout, attempting 16, 11, 6, and 11 from deep in those games. That’s elite-level volume, and even though he’s not a name commonly associated with that kind of shot load, the oddsmakers clearly respect his new role, setting his made threes line at 4.5, which is usually reserved for the likes of Steph Curry.
While I’m not comfortable taking the over on 4.5 made threes, it tells you all you need to know about how the Celtics plan to deploy White without Tatum. He’s going to chuck, and with increased usage and 35–40 minutes incoming, 19 or more points is more than doable.
Payton Pritchard 3-Point Ladder: Over 2.5 Made Threes (-110, BetMGM), 4+ (+150, BetMGM), 5+ (+340, BetMGM), 6+ (+600, DraftKings)
Payton Pritchard will step into an expanded offensive role — and that likely means a barrage of threes. Pritchard has averaged 20.3 points per game in 18 games played without Tatum over the past two seasons, thanks in large part to his aggressive perimeter shooting. This year, he’s averaged a massive 10.2 three-point attempts per game when Tatum is out and nearly all of his shot attempts are from beyond the arc.
In this series alone, Pritchard is averaging 3.0 made threes on 7.8 attempts per game (38.7%). He went 5-for-10 from deep in Game 3, which gives us a clear glimpse at his upside in this spot. With Tatum off the floor, there’s a high probability that the Celtics will emphasize ball movement and spacing. That means catch-and-shoot opportunities for Pritchard on kick-outs and drive-and-kick plays.
The base 2.5 line is already a strong value, but there’s enough volume and history here to warrant a full ladder approach. He could easily flirt with double-digit attempts again, and if he’s hot early, there’s real potential for 5-plus or even 6-plus made threes.
Al Horford 4+ Alt Assists (+160, DraftKings)
Al Horford steps into a sneaky facilitator role, and this alternate assists prop offers strong value. In seven games without Tatum this season, Horford is averaging 3.6 assists in 28.9 minutes, and he’s recorded at least four assists in each of his last four games in that split.
Horford’s role in the offense shifts dramatically when Boston leans into spacing and movement, which they’re likely to do in Game Five against a Knicks team that thrives on perimeter defense. Horford should find himself operating as a short-roll passer and swing man, especially when the Celtics attack closeouts and collapse the defense.
The standard 2.5 line is heavily juiced, which makes the +160 price tag on 4-plus assists much more appealing. He had four dimes in Game 4 and should be counted on to move the ball and help orchestrate the offense again. If the Celtics continue to rely on volume three-point shooting and ball movement to compensate for Tatum’s absence, Horford is an ideal candidate to rack up quiet but valuable assist numbers.
Jrue Holiday Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125, Caesars)
Finally, Jrue Holiday becomes a critical piece in Boston’s effort to stay alive in the series. While he’s averaged a modest 9.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assists (17.1 PRA) through four games, this prop hinges on the expected uptick in usage and involvement that comes with Tatum off the floor, like the picks above.
In seven games without Tatum this season, Holiday averaged 13.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.3 assists — a solid 23.5 PRA per game. That’s a clear jump from his current postseason average and offers a glimpse into the expanded role he’s capable of taking on. He’s also likely to see an increase in shot attempts (he’s averaged just 7.3 FGA per game in this series), as Boston leans into a more balanced, team-centric offensive approach.
Holiday’s ability to contribute across multiple categories gives him a wide range of paths to hit this number — whether it’s increased scoring opportunities, crashing the glass, or stepping into more playmaking responsibility. With Game Five setting up as a must-win and the Celtics short-handed, this is a logical bounce-back spot for Holiday to assert himself in all phases.
Oh, and don’t be shocked if the Celtics not only win this game but also come back and win the series without Tatum, given their style of play. You can get them at +400 to win the series over at DraftKings, as well as +900 to win the East and +3000 to win the title if you’re feeling frisky.
