Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Wednesday, May 28
We have an elimination Game Five on Wednesday’s schedule as the Oklahoma City Thunder (-8.5) host the Minnesota Timberwolves with a 3-1 series lead in the Western Conference Finals. While OKC is the clear favorite, home court hasn’t been the advantage it used to be in these playoffs, which makes tonight’s contest all the more intriguing.
With Minnesota facing elimination, I’m always drawn to high-leverage player prop opportunities on both sides, particularly from stars (and role players) who are going to leave it all on the floor. Below, I’ll break down my favorite player prop picks for tonight’s matchup, with the analysis, logic and trends that make them worth a look. As always, all plays are transparently tracked. Let’s get into it.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Most Assists (-115, DraftKings)
This number simply doesn’t make sense.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has led the Thunder in assists in all four games of this series — posting nine, eight, six and 10 — and each of those totals was also the most by any player in the game. So we’re getting -115 odds on a prop that’s hit four straight times heading into Game Five? Yes, please!
SGA is averaging 8.3 assists per contest in the Western Conference Finals, four full assists ahead of the next-highest Thunder player (Jalen Williams at 4.3). He’s also averaging 13.0 potential assists per game, the most of any player in the series. That kind of playmaking volume gives this prop a high floor, especially considering that Minnesota doesn’t have a traditional pass-first point guard generating assist competition on the other side.
Also worth noting: SGA led the NBA in drives per game for the fifth straight regular season and has continued that attacking mindset in the playoffs. He’s averaging 22.5 drives per game in this series, producing 7.8 passes and 2.0 assists per game just off those actions alone. With the ball in his hands more than anyone else, and with the game slowing down in a possible closeout scenario, this is a mispriced market. I’d set this closer to -225 or -250.
Chet Holmgren Over 15.5 Points (-108, FanDuel)
We saw a pleasantly aggressive version of Chet Holmgren in Game Four — and he delivered, scoring 21 points on 9-of-14 shooting (2-of-4 from deep) while easily clearing his 14.5-point line. Even with the adjustment to 15.5 for Game Five, I’m still buying.
Holmgren also soared past this mark in Game Two with 22 points on 17 shot attempts, and that’s been the key: shot volume. He’s taken more than 11 field goals in six playoff games so far, and he’s gone over this 15.5-point total in all six of them. When he’s assertive, he scores — simple as that.
He’s also cleared this number in six of the seven games in which he’s logged 30+ minutes, a strong signal that opportunity and production go hand-in-hand for the slender big man. With Minnesota packing the paint and selling out to stop SGA, Holmgren should continue finding space to operate, and his soft touch around the rim and ability to step out beyond the arc make him a matchup problem for the Wolves.
I’m expecting another confident outing in Game Five. This number still feels a point or two too low.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 9.5 Points (-102, FanDuel)
SGA’s cousin is playing himself into a major payday this summer, and I’m more than happy to ride the wave in Game Five.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been a revelation off the bench in this series, averaging 15.0 points on 51.2% shooting and a scorching 48.0% from deep. He’s cleared this 9.5-point mark in three of four games so far (with outputs of eight, 17, 12 and 23) and is taking 10.8 field goal attempts per game — an elite usage rate for a bench piece in a Conference Finals.
Chris Finch clearly trusts him more than any other reserve right now, and that’s showing up in the box score in this familial matchup. Dating back to past matchups, NAW has gone over this number in six of his last seven games against Gilgeous-Alexander and in 8 of his last 11 against his cousin when playing 20+ minutes — a workload he’s consistently hitting in this series.
Whether it’s knocking down threes or slicing to the rim, he’s showcasing a polished offensive bag that’s caught everyone (myself included) off guard. The confidence is real, and the value at this number is too good to pass up. I’m not going to stop touting him now.
Naz Reid Over 5.5 Rebounds (-125, Caesars)
Yes, I’m still salty about Game Four. I needed seven boards from Naz Reid to cash four massive parlays that would have earned me about $5k, and he finished with six. But sometimes you’ve got to forgive, forget (kind of) and fire again, especially when the line moves in your favor.
This prop has dropped a full rebound from Game Four, despite Reid grabbing six or more in every game this series (totals of eight, eight, eight and six). He’s averaging 7.5 rebounds on 11.5 chances per game against OKC this series, and over the entire season, he’s gone over 5.5 boards in all eight matchups against the Thunder, averaging 9.3 rebounds on 14.1 chances.
That’s not a fluke — it’s a trend. Reid’s athleticism and versatility make him a better fit in this series than Rudy Gobert, and Coach Finch has shown trust in him when the Wolves need a spark. The offensive aggression may not be fully there, but the rebounding motor still is. In a must-win Game Five, I expect Reid to log enough minutes and grab enough boards to cash this number once again.
I’ll be back here tomorrow to break down Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals!
