Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Wednesday, May 7th
As the NBA playoffs continue to heat up, Game Two matchups bring a unique blend of urgency, adjustments, and opportunity — and that’s precisely why player prop markets become a sharp bettor’s playground. Tuesday’s two-game slate features Celtics vs. Knicks and Thunder vs. Nuggets, and while both series are just one game in, I’ve already seen enough to uncover real value in the numbers. My debut picks went 3-1 yesterday, and there are some edges to exploit once again.
In Boston, the pressure is on. The Celtics dropped Game One on their home floor to a gritty, resilient Knicks team that executed down the stretch. Out West, reigning MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets upset presumed 2024-2025 MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a young OKC team in that Game One.
In this article, I’ve broken down my favorite player prop bets of the night using a blend of advanced analytics, rebounding and assist opportunity metrics, historical performance and likely coaching adjustments. These aren’t just reactionary picks — they’re built on what’s projectable heading into two pivotal Game Twos. Let’s dive in.
Jayson Tatum Over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists (-102, FanDuel)
This number sits right in line with Jayson Tatum’s season average — he averaged 14.7 combined rebounds and assists per game during the regular season — but the playoff usage and role context here create a strong lean toward the over in Game Two.
In Game One, Tatum racked up 16 rebounds and six assists (22 rebounds + assists), clearing this number with room to spare. He led the Celtics in nearly every facilitation metric, finishing with a whopping 17 potential assists, a team-high 97 touches, and 65 passes made while logging 44 minutes. Every one of his 16 rebounds came on the defensive glass, showing his continued value as a cleanup presence when Boston needs to end possessions.
Tatum’s scoring skills are well-documented, but his overall body of work is even more impressive. To hammer home his multidimensionality, here’s the list of NBA players with 13,000 points, 4,000 rebounds and 2,000 assists through their age 26 season: LeBron James and Tatum. That’s it.
With Kristaps Porzingis dealing with an in-game illness, Tatum was relied on slightly more in Game One, but I don’t anticipate any major changes heading into Game Two, except even more assist potential, assuming that Porzingis returns. It’s clear that Tatum is going to be the hub — whether he’s initiating from the perimeter or cleaning up the glass, and I don’t think his 44 minutes in Game One due to overtime inflated his counting stats or advanced predictive metrics in a significant way. He’s going to be on the floor as much as he can handle in what is a crucial game for Boston to win.
There’s also a usage-based factor built into this number. Tatum shot 7-of-23 from the field in Game One and has struggled to score efficiently through most of the playoffs, shooting 41.7% overall and 33.3% from deep. If those shooting struggles continue, Tatum will likely look to facilitate more than usual, and he’s shown the willingness and ability to do that when his shot isn’t falling.
On the year, Tatum went over this 15.5 line in 43 games and under in 34. But in the playoffs, with tighter rotations, 40+ minutes of court time, and a ball-dominant role, this number becomes much more reachable, especially in a must-win spot for the Celtics.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 10.5 Rebounds (-125, FanDuel)
This prop is all about necessity, because if the Knicks are going to stay in control and win Game Two, Karl-Anthony Towns has to dominate the glass. In Game One, even in just 31 minutes due to foul trouble, he delivered: 13 rebounds on 21 rebounding chances, both of which led the team. That kind of efficiency and activity, despite the limited court time, speaks volumes about his rebounding floor going forward. His rebounding prop fell from 11.5 in Game One to 10.5, creating a glaring opportunity to hit the over.
One adjustment we’re likely to see from Tom Thibodeau is less Mitchell Robinson, who grabbed seven boards on 12 chances in Game One but shot 3-of-10 from the free throw line as a result of Boston’s hack-a-Robinson strategy throughout the game. That opens the door for even more minutes for Towns as long as he avoids foul trouble, and more opportunity to anchor the glass.
Towns has answered the call on the boards against Boston all season. In the last two regular-season matchups, he pulled down 14 rebounds (on 23 chances) and 18 rebounds (on 20 chances) while playing 43 and 41 minutes, respectively. Boston’s high-volume three-point shooting stretches defenses and produces plenty of defensive rebounding chances, and the Knicks simply cannot afford to let the Celtics rack up second-chance looks. Towns’ rebounding isn’t just valuable — it’s foundational to New York’s strategy.
With Boston’s ability to space the floor at all five positions, rebounding responsibilities fall heavily on Towns, especially with Josh Hart or OG Anunoby at the four. If KAT doesn’t secure the glass, New York will lose the possession battle — and that’s a recipe for disaster against a team that typically wins the math game from deep.
On the season, Towns went over this 10.5 rebound line in 41 games, under in 38, averaging 12.6 per game. But in this matchup, this moment, and with this team dynamic, he should see another 38-to-42 minutes and an elevated level of rebounding opportunity. I love his upside on the boards, and this is my favorite prop on the slate.
Josh Hart Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110, DraftKings)
Josh Hart is made for this stage — and more importantly, he’s built to produce in this specific matchup. The Celtics demand toughness, switchability and rebounding grit from their opponents, and Hart checks every one of those boxes. He’s the Knicks’ ultimate glue guy: a vocal leader, defensive anchor, secondary playmaker, elite rebounder and opportunistic scorer. And in a series this physically demanding, his minutes are as secure as anyone’s — barring foul trouble, he’s likely to hover around the 40-to-48 minute range.
Hart’s production against Boston has been incredibly consistent. In his last four games vs. the Celtics — including Game One of this series — he’s posted 28, 40, 28, and 28 PRA, clearing this 25.5 line in all four. His ability to crash the glass, operate in transition and stay involved as a facilitator offensively keeps his floor high. In Game One, he went 5-of-9 from the field, saw 20 rebounding chances, and had eight potential assists. Hart is doing the dirty work, and in this rivalry matchup, the dirty work is everything.
He’s also one of the few Knicks who can fluidly shift between positions — we’ll see him guard Tatum on one end, then bring the ball up on the other. That versatility keeps him involved in every phase of the game, which is exactly what we want when targeting PRA props. He has averaged 28.9 PRA per game this season and went over this number in 43 of 83 games. That may not jump off the page, but in the playoffs, with his role expanding and minutes tightening, the number feels too low.
With the Celtics locked in on stopping Jalen Brunson and Towns, Hart’s skill set becomes even more important. I expect him to stuff the box score.
Nikola Jokic 20+ Points & 15+ Rebounds (+132, DraftKings)
We’re getting plus money on a prop that Nikola Jokic made look automatic in Game One — and history says it’s anything but a fluke. Jokic dropped 42 points and 22 rebounds on the Thunder in the series opener, shooting 15-of-29 from the field and 10-of-13 from the line, while logging a staggering 31 rebounding chances. Simply put, he was everywhere and completely dominated in the upset win.
Jokic has now scored 20+ points in 24 straight road playoff games, per Jake Coyne on X — the longest such streak since Michael Jordan’s 37-game stretch from 1990 to 1995. That kind of production, especially in hostile environments, is legendary. And in typical Joker fashion, it doesn’t come from sheer scoring volume alone — it comes from total game control.
As proven in Game One and during the regular season, the Thunder simply don’t have a true answer for him in the paint. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein are long, but they aren’t physically capable of keeping the girthy Serbian off the glass. The playoff version of Jokic is another level. He gets more minutes and more responsibility. We even saw him helping coach the team during timeouts in Game One — his IQ and leadership are unmatched. And while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may take home the MVP trophy this season, Jokic is reminding everyone who the most valuable player in the league really is. This is a playoff spot, with playoff minutes, for the most productive player in the world — and we’re getting this alternate combo line at +132. I’m all in.
