Celtics, Thunder blow big Game 1 leads, providing long-term series value for both
The two games we saw in the NBA Playoffs on Monday, May 5th were insane. In the first one, the defending champion Boston Celtics shot 15 for 60 from 3 and blew a 20-point lead to lose outright as an 8.5-point favorite against the New York Knicks. The Celtics, once a -1000 favorite at some shops, are now down to -340 to win the series at DraftKings Sportsbook. In the other game, the Oklahoma City Thunder, who led by 14 points, collapsed in the final minutes of their Game 1 meeting with the Denver Nuggets. Nikola Jokic and Co. walked out of the Paycom Center with a 121-119 victory. At DraftKings, the Thunder are now -290 to win the series after having been up at -900.
Both results were absolutely stunning. We looked like we were heading towards some chalky conference semifinals, and things don’t seem as straightforward now. However, the nightmares we saw unfold for the two favorites on Monday might have set bettors up with a dream opportunity. That’s a -135 parlay for the Celtics and Thunder to advance to the next round.
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The way the Celtics played in Game 1 was puzzling. Boston missed a lot of uncontested shots from behind the 3-point line, but the team also took a lot of bad shots. A lot of that started with Jayson Tatum. The Celtics did a brilliant job of hunting mismatches as they built a big lead, and targeting Jalen Brunson was a big part of that. There were a few instances in which Tatum and Jaylen Brown got isolation opportunities on the undersized Knicks guard. The two of them methodically worked their way into the mid-range area, bumped him away and knocked down easy jumpers. But all of that went away late in the third quarter, and Boston was in panic mode in the fourth.
Tatum’s play really fell off a cliff. Boston continued to get him into situations in which Brunson was guarding him, and the team also got Mitchell Robinson and other New York bigs defending the superstar in space. But Tatum settled for stepback 3 after stepback 3, and the rest of the Celtics launched away from deep. There was no rhyme or reason when looking at Boston’s offensive process. But I don’t see that being a consistent problem for a Joe Mazzulla-coached team — especially against a New York team that was just 15th in the league in adjusted defensive rating (113.7) during the regular season.
The Celtics are going to continue to fire away from deep. That’s what they do. But they’re going to do a better job of generating quality looks, and the players are going to knock those down at a higher clip than they did in Game 1. But Boston is also going to make an effort to get to the basket more. Tatum and Brown are both guilty of being trigger-happy when it comes to their jumpers, but both of them will learn from the opening game in this series. They’re capable of getting easy shots at the rim, so they’re going to go ahead and get them. And doing that will also open up better looks for their teammates.
We should also see more of Kristaps Porzingis moving forward. The Celtics big man is crucial for his team, as he’s an awesome rim protector and a great floor-spacing presence. Unfortunately, he left Game 1 as he dealt with lingering effects of the upper respiratory illness that forced him out of action late in the regular season. But Porzingis is listed as probable for Game 2, and he did play big minutes against the Orlando Magic in the opening round. Well, if Boston can get him right for the remainder of the series, that’s another thing that’ll work against New York.
I’ll put my hand up and say that I had the Celtics -2.5 games in this series, and I fully expected Boston to win in five games or less. The reason I said five is that I expect the Knicks to win a game at Madison Square Garden, and I still think they will. But I don’t see New York eliminating this Boston team. The Knicks are talented, but they are flawed. And over the course of a seven-game series, I expect the Celtics to find ways to expose them.
I have less notes on the other series. For as bad as it was that Oklahoma City let Denver hang around late in the game, the Thunder still should have won Game 1. I’m a big believer in fouling with a three-point lead, but Mark Daigneault went to it way too early. He put too much pressure on his own team to inbound the basketball and make free throws. He also made the brutal mistake of having his guys foul when Jokic was off the floor. If Denver was able to generate a good look from deep with the best player on the planet sitting on the sidelines, so be it. But the Thunder mismanaged that game, and they forfeited home-court advantage in the process.
Now, Oklahoma City has to win Game 2 and find a way to split the two games in Denver. But you know what? The Thunder should be able to do that. This team had an adjusted net rating of +11.8 in the regular season, which was 8.0 higher than what the Nuggets had. Oklahoma City was also historically good on the defensive end of the floor, and the group is going up against a Denver squad that is lower on firepower than you’d think. So, if you thought the Thunder were going to win in five or six games before they coughed away Game 1, what exactly has changed?
Realistically, these series look like they’re going to be longer than originally expected, and I personally think I’m looking at losses on my pre-series plays in both of them. But I feel good about making it back, and possibly even adding some profits, by riding with two of the best teams in the NBA to sort things out. That said, don’t risk more than you can afford to lose, but I’m playing this to win 3.5 units.
PARLAY: Celtics/Thunder To Win Series (-135)
