It’s officially time for the NBA Playoffs. We’ve been working hard to get you ready for some of these awesome opening-round matchups, so make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Saturday, April 26th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 26th
NBA Best Bets Today – April 26th
Game 3: Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat – 1:00 pm ET
While the Cavaliers won Game 2 by nine points, it was a two-point game with 4:26 remaining. Miami fought hard and had a lot of success in the second half. Now, with the series heading to South Beach, it’s hard not to like the Heat to be competitive — and possibly even win. Game 3 is when a team trailing 0-2 tends to throw its best punch, and this isn’t your normal team either. This is an Erik Spoelstra-coached team.
Under Spoelstra, Miami is 22-19 straight-up and 24-16-1 against the spread when trailing in a series. He can generally be trusted to push the right buttons with his squad, and we saw that in Game 2. Spoelstra is going to get everything he can out of his team. Meanwhile, for as good as Kenny Atkinson is, he hasn’t proven that he’s good at making in-game adjustments, or even in-series adjustments. Sure, Atkinson has put a great system in place in Cleveland, but he has a lot of work to do in order to show he can hold his own against Spoelstra when it comes to the dry erase board.
There’s also a whole other level that Andrew Wiggins and Bam Adebayo can get to. The two of them combined to score 21 points on 6 for 19 shooting in Game 2, and there are certainly better days ahead for that duo. Look for those to come with the team playing at home now.
I also don’t think it was particularly smart of Darius Garland to call out Tyler Herro’s defense after Game 2. There was no need for him to throw gas on the fire — especially with him being a pretty miserable defender himself. Let’s see how he looks with Miami hunting him in Game 3. And let’s see if Donovan Mitchell can go 7 for 10 from 3 outside of Cleveland.
Bet: Heat +5.5 (-109 – 1.5 units) & Heat ML (+190 – 0.5 units)
Game 3: Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors – 8:30 pm ET
Jimmy Butler seems legitimately banged up heading into Game 3, and the Warriors have him listed as questionable here. I’d personally be surprised if he misses this one. We all know how tough Butler is. However, even if he’s out there, I’d like Houston’s chances of winning this game — or at least keeping it extremely close. So, I’m taking the points with the Rockets.
I just don’t think that what we saw in Game 2 was a fluke, even if Butler did miss time in that game. Jalen Green, who played miserable basketball in Game 1, got himself comfortable. And that feels more like a sign of things to come than an outlier. He’s going to have opportunities to score, as the Rockets are doing a good job of getting him favorable matchups. There’s also no reason Alperen Sengun can’t continue to play well in the paint, as the Warriors just don’t have a good match for him physically. And we still haven’t seen Fred VanVleet get himself going. He’s just 3 for 20 from 3 since the start of the series, and that isn’t going to last. He’s an NBA champion that has made big shots all throughout his career.
Naturally, the counterargument here is that Golden State has always been a difficult place to win in the postseason, and Stephen Curry is capable of beating very good teams all by himself. But Houston is better equipped than anybody to slow him down, as the team has a bunch of reliable perimeter defenders that take pride in making him work for everything. Curry was just 6 for 15 in Game 2, and he had trouble creating space for himself. There should be more games like that in this series.
Houston should also continue to dominate the glass, as the team just has a huge size advantage — and a roster filled with players that relentlessly pursue the basketball. As long as the Rockets continue to rack up second chances, they’re going to be very tough to beat.
For what it’s worth, the Warriors are also just 11-20 ATS as home favorites this year. They’re also just 3-5 ATS when facing teams that outrebound opponents by 3.0 or more points per game.
Bet: Rockets +3.5 (-112 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – April 26th
Game 4: Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers – 6:00 pm ET
This isn’t exactly an elimination game for the Nuggets, but it might as well be. I know Denver has come back from a 3-1 deficit against Los Angeles in the past, but that was a different Clippers team. This one is special. With that in mind, I’m expecting Nikola Jokic to go down swinging. Jokic is only averaging 26.0 points per game in this series, and he has only taken a total of 30 shots over the last two games. But Los Angeles sent less help at him in Game 3 than it did in any other game this series. The Clippers are comfortable having Ivica Zubac defend him on an island, which makes sense considering how good of a job he has done so far. But Jokic is going to find a groove scoring on Zubac in the post eventually. He’s too good of a player not to. And I can see it happening here. Honestly, I can see this being a game in which Jokic flirts with 35. There’s no way he’s going to have his team go down 3-1 without getting up his fair share of shots.
Bet: Jokic Over 26.5 Points (-120)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 384-383-2 (+6.88 units)
