The NBA Playoffs have been absolutely incredible thus far, and we’re working hard to make them as profitable as possible for all of our VSiN subscribers. So, make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Saturday, May 10th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 10th
NBA Best Bets Today – May 10
Game 3: Boston Celtics at New York Knicks – 3:30 pm ET
Game 3: Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors – 8:30 pm ET
I have been flirting with the idea of laying the points with Boston ever since Game 2 ended, but I just can’t bring myself to do it. Perhaps that’ll be a play I make in the Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge, but it’s not something I’m comfortable doing with my own money. Having said that, I do think the Celtics are going to win this game. So, I’m parlaying Boston moneyline with Minnesota moneyline at plus-money odds.
With the Celtics, I just think they’re going to find a way to get right. Boston has easily built 20-point leads in this series, and the team has done that despite playing rather poorly. The Celtics are just 25 for 100 from 3 in this series, which is outrageous for a team that shot 36.8% from deep during the regular season. Of course, you can question some of the shots Boston is taking. We have seen some bad step-back 3s out of Jayson Tatum, and we have also seen some rushed shots early in the shot clock out of pretty much everybody. But we have also seen a ton of missed shots on uncontested looks. And while the Knicks definitely ramped up their defense in the third and fourth quarters last game, the Celtics still had their chances to put them away. They just could’t take advantage. So, with Boston feeling due for a huge offensive breakthrough, it’s hard not to like the team to win — even with this game being played at Madison Square Garden.
Realistically, the Celtics have a defensive rating of 100.5 over the last two games, and they’re too good offensively not to take advantage of that. That’s a mark that is better than what the Thunder had in the regular season, and we’ve been calling them a historic defense all year. I’m also of the opinion that Joe Mazzulla is a better coach than Tom Thibodeau. And while the first few games in this series haven’t looked good for Mazzulla, there’s still time for him to figure it out. Also, Boston is 5-3 straight-up when trailing in a playoff series under Mazzulla, and the team is also 34-13 SU when playing with two days of rest with him on the sidelines. On top of that, the Celtics are 14-4 SU — and 13-4-1 against the spread — when coming off back-to-back losses under Mazzulla. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 23-40 SU as home underdogs under Thibodeau.
As far as the other game goes, it’s just hard to imagine the Warriors coming up with the offense they need to win. Sure, the Timberwolves have had a few shaky offensive performances throughout these playoffs, but the mismatch in talent when Stephen Curry isn’t out there is just crazy now. I’m definitely expecting more energy from Golden State than we saw in Game 2, as that was a deflated team going against a desperate one. But this is a Timberwolves team that was Top 5 in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (110.5) during the regular season, and they’re third in the NBA in defensive rating (106.6) since the start of the playoffs. So, with the Warriors being without one of the best shotmakers in the history of the sport, I’ll take my chances with Minnesota winning this outright. One of the things I can’t shake is that Steve Kerr is now being forced to play guys that he hasn’t trusted all year long. Buddy Hield, whose minutes fluctuated all season, is now guaranteed 30 or so minutes a night, and he’s highly exploitable defensively. And Jonathan Kuminga is suddenly in the rotation, and he’s a player that Kerr has no belief in whatsoever. This is just a bad situation that only “Playoff Jimmy” can save. And we haven’t seen the best of Jimmy Butler since he took a hard fall against the Rockets.
PARLAY: Celtics ML & Timberwolves ML (+113 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 10
Game 3: Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors – 8:30 pm ET
Since the start of the postseason, the Timberwolves have an Efficiency Differential of +6.7 with Naz Reid on the floor. Meanwhile, the team has an Efficiency Differential of -10.5 with Rudy Gobert on the floor. I have been pretty quick to defend Gobert’s play throughout his career, and I think he has mostly played well throughout these playoffs. So, I wouldn’t put 100% trust in those numbers. After all, it’s a pretty small sample size. But Reid is playing 32.0 minutes per game in this series, and Gobert is down at 26.5 minutes per game. That’s a significant increase for Reid when compared to his regular season minutes, and it’s a big decrease for Gobert. And I don’t see that changing much the rest of the way, especially with the Timberwolves needing some offense.
Reid is just a tremendous shotmaker as a small-big, as he’s knocking down 45.9% of his 3s since the start of the playoffs. He’s also fully capable of attacking the rim, where he can finish with either hand. I don’t think Golden State has a great answer for Reid’s skill set, and taking advantage of his defense isn’t an option with the team the Warriors have right now. There isn’t enough floor spacing to force Chris Finch’s hand in taking him out of the game.
With all of that in mind, I like Reid to have at least 12 points in Game 3. I’m also putting a little something on him to score 18+.
Pick: Reid Over 11.5 Points (-120 – 1.5 units) & Reid To Score 18+ (+310 – 0.5 units)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 408-413-2 (+12.74 units)
