The NBA Playoffs have been absolutely incredible thus far, and we’re working hard to make them as profitable as possible for all of our VSiN subscribers. So, make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Sunday, May 11th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 11th
NBA Best Bets Today – May 11
Game 4: Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets – 3:30 pm ET
Game 4: Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 8:00 pm ET
The Nuggets out-executed the Thunder late in Game 3, but the Thunder only got themselves into a crunch-time situation because of some poor shooting and uncharacteristically bad defense. Oklahoma City was one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the league during the regular season, knocking down 14.5 triples per game and shooting 37.4% as a team. But the Thunder were just 9 for 35 from 3 in Game 3, and that came right after a Game 2 performance in which they went 16 for 36 from deep. So, while things are different inside Ball Arena, we know Oklahoma City is capable of shooting the 3-ball better. It’s also probably safe to assume Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t going to shoot 7 for 22 from the floor again.
This Denver defense has been much better in the postseason than it was in the regular season, but this still isn’t a group that can be trusted to get consistent stops. However, the Thunder can be trusted to right the ship after a weak defensive performance in Game 3. For starters, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Christian Braun and Peyton Watson combined to shoot 13 for 21 from deep in that game. It’s hard to see that happening again. And while Nikola Jokic is certainly in for a better offensive performance, it’s hard not to like Oklahoma City to sit down, watch some film and come out hungry. This is a team full of dogs and the season is on the line on Sunday. The Thunder are also the younger, deeper and more athletic team, so they should be in better shape with the quick Friday-to-Sunday turnaround.
Considering everything above, I really like Oklahoma City to even the series up. But I’m not looking to lay a ton of points against a Denver team with championship DNA, especially with the Nuggets playing at home. So, I’m parlaying the Thunder moneyline with the Pacers on an alternate line of +12.5. There’s no real science when looking at that spread. I just have a lean on Indiana and took as many points as I could to get the Oklahoma City price down to a normal vig. I know the Cavaliers pounded the Pacers the other day, but that was essentially an elimination game for Cleveland. Now, the Pacers should be feeling some desperation. They can’t afford to let their 2-0 lead — and home-court advantage — slip away. And Indiana should be more prepared for Cleveland knowing that the starters are all healthy. Rick Carlisle is a great coach that should be able to look at what went wrong last game and make some fixes. One thing that definitely shouldn’t work well for the Cavaliers is the zone. The Pacers are too talented offensively not to figure that out. Indiana should also get more out of Tyrese Haliburton offensively. More on that below.
PARLAY: Thunder ML & Pacers Alt Spread +12.5 (-114 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 11
Game 4: Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 8:00 pm ET
Haliburton only took eight shots in Game 3, going 2 for 8 from the floor and 0 for 1 from 3. That performance followed up two games in which the star guard had at least 19 points. Well, I’m expecting Haliburton to be way more aggressive in Game 4. There’s a stat going around that the Pacers are 14-4 in the postseason when Haliburton takes at least 10 shots. And while I’m not sure that will make its way back to Indiana, it’s hard to imagine Carlisle not getting on Haliburton for being passive. When he’s scoring, everything opens up for his teammates. Also, it’s not like the Cavaliers are strong in the backcourt defensively. This team is going to play Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland big minutes, and Haliburton should be able to get by both guys. He should also be able to set up some good stepback 3s when the Cleveland big men switch onto him.
I’ll be honest, I don’t think Haliburton’s left wrist is feeling all that good right now, and maybe that will prevent him from making shots. But I’m playing this Over because I feel great about his volume being there. That’s half the battle when attacking player props.
Pick: Haliburton Over 17.5 Points (-110)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
________________________________________________
2024-25 NBA Record: 409-418-2 (+6.71 units)
